Honestly i don't think we've had to endure such a painfully boring trading like that in a while. At least since last year.
But btw. If you want a laugh go look at NFLX's AH's chart. At least that's entertaining. Never disappoints.
But today before the last half an hour we traded in a .52% range. .52%. This is like, Christmas Eve type movement. Looking right now SPY only traded 51m shares, as opposed to 87m yesterday, 93m the day before, and 103m the day before that. We finished in a .69% range.
Literally nothing changed.
The only things notable were that XLF and DJT earlier in the day had some action and filled their same day gaps. I couldn't really put my finger on which companies were doing well, with DJT having railroads and trucking companies in the green while XLF mainly just had MS who's trading desk also crushed it moving upwards. All together bank were not ok. These banks were setting aside upwards of eight billion dollars of reserves preparing for the downdraft of loan defaults on the horizon as COVID stimulus and forbearance's run out. And people took notice. But it's like the whole hear no evil see no evil mentality. If anything the writing is on the wall for the rest of the economy. But, oh well.
But honestly nothing else changed. The only other notable things were DJI and SPX filled their gaps from yesterday, but SPY did not. Bears had a chance to validate the hangman reversal candle printed yesterday but apparently they're on vacation or something. We didn't even hit any targets. SPY and SPX did close above resistance we opened below though. We had intial jobless claims that were in line with expectations but there's still 17 million people on continuing unemployment. That's a fucking huge number.
Bad news for bulls: still can't break out.
Bad news for bears: still can't conjure a rejection.
Haha i wish i had more to report but that's basically it.
Interestingly enough percentage wise everything is about on par besides XLF (0%) and DJT (-.1%). QQQ got some life breathed into it today though. It looked like it was going to continue selling off and by the time it got to top of gap it turned around. At one point i'm pretty sure AMZN was lifting the entire broader market. That's how thin trading was today. Other than that i can't extract much more from the day. It's telling we didn't get rejected. And it's also telling that we didn't get the same day gap filled. Because no one was participating. No one wants to lean into it at these levels and at the same time no one wants to sell.
I guess on the bonds front it's notable this is the second time we've wicked through the in a week. And VIX got basically whacked today due to it being so flat. Theta/ Vega trap.
5m showing a gap down this morning but no follow through. And really the only notable thing was the algos, or whoever trying to get us closing above support at $320.11. It is notable the amount of tree branches they have to fall through around these levels to break support. You have support all the way back down to $312, but if that does break it's probably going to $308/$306.
I guess you can extrapolate a out of the hourly. But i honestly didn't see a lot of buying today to suggest people were trying to stealth buy or enter positions besides XLF and DJT
Daily doesn't look half bad
ES a mess as always. 1h doesn't look as bad as the 30m
Alright i just saw this. This is definitely a on ES daily. Note that..
SPX showing much the same with a close above suspport, but below resistance. This is honestly a really awkward place on the chart
IWM finishing green by .1%, but it's hard to tell
But when you zoom out it looks a little better on the chart. Close above resistance line again, break out from the smaller triangle. and looks like it's consolidating, or staging underneath the downtrend line from Feb top
Inside day. Important to note it still did close above the 200 period MA
VIX also showing an inside day. That support has been resilient so far. Up .86%
XLF was on a tear this morning. It had a 2.29% run to give it up about mid day and ended up trading out of it's channel it's created since late last week. Literally close completely flat at 0%
Sitting at about the .382 fib drawn from last months high
DJI showing relative weakness generally all day. Opening back outside of that trendline (geez, just can't win right?) but regained it, only to meander back outside of it again
on the daily - note that DJI has now filled both gaps from yesterday and from June
QQQ with a cute little fakeout there at the end of the day, but still consolidating in a
Today actually had decent on QQQ , better than the past couple weeks at least, but still below average
DJT with another gap fill today
Metals surprisingly looked weak today. Silver and gold both printing engulfings, which is strange since the dollar is still shedding weight. Don't have any insight other than maybe it's people taking profit. But watch for it to retrace a little bit though, because there could be an opportunity there.
Gold looking extra nasty
Bonds again wicked into the defcon zone. This is the tenth exploration onto the other side. This still is worrying me
What i said yesterday about everyone getting in position for a move upwards still stands, especially since we're still yet to see a rejection. But on the flip side it looks like sentiment is "well shit" and the market is looking for an upside catalyst. Big tech are next week, and then we get into the meat and potatoes of everyone else. We'll see where the markets take us overnight.
I wouldn't be surprised to have something happen that moves the market while everyone's sleeping on it. And if i knew which way i'd already be a rich man. So, as always keep your head on a swivel.
Thanks for reading.
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But the bulls were given another gift today we us opening green again.
Ok, the weird part. Mixed signals. 10 yr showing defcon 3 again. And VIX resting right on support, not looking too healthy.
on the 5 min for today, then 1 hour and 2 hour chart for past few days. specifically the 2 hour chart, seems interesting around this level.
the gap on daily chart is at 88.5 to 86.6.
I forogt which type of gap is least likely to be filled, but I think its the gap that is created as the market changes direction. But this gap was missed going both ways, and never filled, interesting...
think this may be significant later on? for some reason i just dont see XBI returning that low anytime soon lol