AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Like Nebraska flat. Painfully flat. Mind numbing flat.

Honestly i don't think we've had to endure such a painfully boring trading like that in a while. At least since last year.

But btw. If you want a laugh go look at NFLX's AH's chart. At least that's entertaining. Never disappoints.

But today before the last half an hour we traded in a .52% range. .52%. This is like, Christmas Eve type movement. Looking right now SPY only traded 51m shares, as opposed to 87m yesterday, 93m the day before, and 103m the day before that. We finished in a .69% range.

Literally nothing changed.

The only things notable were that XLF and DJT earlier in the day had some action and filled their same day gaps. I couldn't really put my finger on which companies were doing well, with DJT having railroads and trucking companies in the green while XLF mainly just had MS who's trading desk also crushed it moving upwards. All together bank earnings were not ok. These banks were setting aside upwards of eight billion dollars of reserves preparing for the downdraft of loan defaults on the horizon as COVID stimulus and forbearance's run out. And people took notice. But it's like the whole hear no evil see no evil mentality. If anything the writing is on the wall for the rest of the economy. But, oh well.

But honestly nothing else changed. The only other notable things were DJI and SPX filled their gaps from yesterday, but SPY did not. Bears had a chance to validate the hangman reversal candle printed yesterday but apparently they're on vacation or something. We didn't even hit any targets. SPY and SPX did close above resistance we opened below though. We had intial jobless claims that were in line with expectations but there's still 17 million people on continuing unemployment. That's a fucking huge number.

Bad news for bulls: still can't break out.

Bad news for bears: still can't conjure a rejection.

Haha i wish i had more to report but that's basically it.

Interestingly enough percentage wise everything is about on par besides XLF (0%) and DJT (-.1%). QQQ got some life breathed into it today though. It looked like it was going to continue selling off and by the time it got to top of gap it turned around. At one point i'm pretty sure AMZN was lifting the entire broader market. That's how thin trading was today. Other than that i can't extract much more from the day. It's telling we didn't get rejected. And it's also telling that we didn't get the same day gap filled. Because no one was participating. No one wants to lean into it at these levels and at the same time no one wants to sell.

I guess on the bonds front it's notable this is the second time we've wicked through the resistance level in a week. And VIX got basically whacked today due to it being so flat. Theta/ Vega trap.

5m showing a gap down this morning but no follow through. And really the only notable thing was the algos, or whoever trying to get us closing above support at $320.11. It is notable the amount of tree branches they have to fall through around these levels to break support. You have support all the way back down to $312, but if that does break it's probably going to $308/$306.

I guess you can extrapolate a bull flag out of the hourly. But i honestly didn't see a lot of buying today to suggest people were trying to stealth buy or enter positions besides XLF and DJT

Daily doesn't look half bad

ES a mess as always. 1h doesn't look as bad as the 30m

Alright i just saw this. This is definitely a bearish engulfing on ES daily. Note that..

SPX showing much the same with a close above suspport, but below resistance. This is honestly a really awkward place on the chart

IWM finishing green by .1%, but it's hard to tell

But when you zoom out it looks a little better on the chart. Close above resistance line again, break out from the smaller triangle. and looks like it's consolidating, or staging underneath the downtrend line from Feb top

Inside day. Important to note it still did close above the 200 period MA

VIX also showing an inside day. That support has been resilient so far. Up .86%

XLF was on a tear this morning. It had a 2.29% run to give it up about mid day and ended up trading out of it's channel it's created since late last week. Literally close completely flat at 0%

Sitting at about the .382 fib drawn from last months high

DJI showing relative weakness generally all day. Opening back outside of that trendline (geez, just can't win right?) but regained it, only to meander back outside of it again

Doji on the daily - note that DJI has now filled both gaps from yesterday and from June

QQQ with a cute little fakeout there at the end of the day, but still consolidating in a bearish pattern

Today actually had decent volume on QQQ , better than the past couple weeks at least, but still below average

DJT with another gap fill today

Metals surprisingly looked weak today. Silver and gold both printing bearish engulfings, which is strange since the dollar is still shedding weight. Don't have any insight other than maybe it's people taking profit. But watch for it to retrace a little bit though, because there could be an opportunity there.

Silver

Gold looking extra nasty

Bonds again wicked into the defcon zone. This is the tenth exploration onto the other side. This still is worrying me

What i said yesterday about everyone getting in position for a move upwards still stands, especially since we're still yet to see a rejection. But on the flip side it looks like sentiment is "well shit" and the market is looking for an upside catalyst. Big tech earnings are next week, and then we get into the meat and potatoes of everyone else. We'll see where the futures markets take us overnight.

I wouldn't be surprised to have something happen that moves the market while everyone's sleeping on it. And if i knew which way i'd already be a rich man. So, as always keep your head on a swivel.

Thanks for reading.

This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Comment: WEBSITE UPDATE: So i plan on having the website live by this weekend at least for beta testing. I guarantee there will be some kinks and bugs to work out be we do plan on having it live.

If you do not already know i am planning on taking these posts private. The daily updates/newsletter will be the same as they are here, but paywalled. The membership will be $1 a day, or $20 a month. If you pre sign up for the website you will receive the first month for $10 or half off.

We will also have resources including how to chart, market nuances, and basically everything i know downloaded all into one place.

The website is M1904trading.com and if you enjoy this either pre register or check out the website come Monday.

Thanks again!
Comment: Actual bonds chart.

Comment: Alright. Funky stuff going on this morning. First and foremost they REALLY want us at this $320 area. I think a lot of this is this the the max pain area for traders with stupid amounts of OI down below, and high OI up above.

But the bulls were given another gift today we us opening green again.

Ok, the weird part. Mixed signals. 10 yr showing defcon 3 again. And VIX resting right on support, not looking too healthy.


Comment: So interestingly enough NQ is up over 1%. Is this when they make the run for new highs now that everyone's been positioned? The VIX is showing that they might. Fireworks Friday? We'll see.

Comment: I think they're going to go for it. If VIX closes below it's 200 period MA bears are in trouble.

Comment: Might get a 2 for 1 gap fill here.

Comment: IWM and XLF already filled the gap. DJI is close.

Comment: DJI same day gap filled.

Comment: QQQ same day gap filled.

Comment: IWM and XLF trying to reverse.

Comment: Sellers still in control in techland. Small caps and banks have found a bid. More churn.

Comment: Day's not as clear cut as i thought it'd be. Still a little bit of churn out there but the fact that SPY hasn't filled the gap yet is bullish. There's an equal amount of buyers and sellers out there right now.

Comment: Gap filled. Good volume on that last candle. Bulls holding the line so far.

Comment: Bulls broke. We'll see how far the bears take it. Interesting trade so far today.

Comment: Alright if we break the lows of yesterday around $319.20 the next target is $317.19.

Comment: Last second push, literally, to get the hourly close above support. They missed it by .02, but that's close enough for government work.

Comment: Scratch that. They actually closed directly on my support line of $320.11. Funny how that works huh?
Comment: Decent bull counter attack, we'll see if they can hold it. Watch for where the next hourly closes.

Comment: Without bear follow through the MM's algos are going to keep us above $320 which is the max pain zone for traders. Bears left the room again for some reason.

Comment: Looks like they're going for a full retrace..

Comment: Bulls not letting off the gas pedal. That's a pretty serious retrace.

Comment: If you're someone who trades options now would be the time to pick up some long puts or calls considering how the VIX is getting cratered.

Comment: Ok volume's started to die off for the time being. Not sure where they want to take us the rest of the day. At least up and down sideways is more entertaining to watch than just sideways.

Comment: Beginning to look like a pretty textbook bullflag.

Comment: IWM breaking above it's feb downtrend

Comment: If the day closes at this level or better we'll have our highest weekly close since Feb.

Comment: Getting to make or break it time for the bulls. They have to continue from here or else we start rolling over.

Comment: IWM getting a gentle rejection from that trendline

Comment: 128k shares traded that last 5m candle..

Comment: So the bogey for the weekly close is to close over $320.22. That'd print a new weekly high.

Comment: Algo pop there. Standby.

Comment: Volume's there.

Comment: Double average volume on that last 5m candle. Not sure what the deal is, but full retrace and then some so far.

Comment: Ok that was strange. Still no news but that was a huge sell volume candle and we retraced plus some on less than half of it.

Comment: That move was prompted by a 201k share 1 second candle...

Comment: Only 148k shares traded in that ENTIRE last 5m candle... Shenanigans.

Comment: Are they finally going to make the move?

Comment: Broke today's high..

Comment: QQQ leading the charge.

Comment: VIX pretty convincingly breaking the 200

Comment: Oh shit, just noticed SPY filled the gap from yesterday.

Comment: There is now only one more gap up above us.. And that's the one from Feb.

Comment: We'll see how they're feeling into close. That last little run was all QQQ with IWM and DJI showing weakness. XLF flat.

Comment: Volume's been decent since we got up here btw.
Comment: Decent fight up here. Bulls trying their best trying to hold off a reversal.

Comment: On SPX they're getting really, really close..

Comment: SPY breaking the downtrend line from last couple times we've been up here..

Comment: It's almost like they just touched an electric fence. We'll see if they're going back for more.

Comment: Just saw a 30k sell order in the books..

At M1904trading.com we're doing daily, in depth market wide analysis with little to no bias as well as live updates throughout the day. Everything from the 5m to the monthly. Check it out for a 7 day free trial!

Comments

good job
+2 Reply
thank you so much for doing this, this is straight clean, good, valid, technical analysis. helps a lot.
+2 Reply
merkd1904 gtp3131
@gtp3131, Thank you i really appreciate that,
Reply
merkd1904 gtp3131
@gtp3131, Hey buddy would it be cool if i used this for the website??
Reply
roni3131 merkd1904
@merkd1904, yes you can brother, keep posting about the market here please!!!
Reply
check out the number of reactions past few days around spy 321.1. also we opened around that area today. seems interesting how we did that whole drop, then climb centered there.
on the 5 min for today, then 1 hour and 2 hour chart for past few days. specifically the 2 hour chart, seems interesting around this level.
+1 Reply
merkd1904 stockmarket2020
@stockmarket2020, Mark it as support/resistance on your chart, at least locally. I already have $320.11 marked and usually don't like to stack them too close unless i've day trading contracts.
+1 Reply
also interesting with the gap theory, there 2 HUGE gaps on XBI. 1 gap was never filled, created going down in crash, and gapped above it going up again lol.
the gap on daily chart is at 88.5 to 86.6.
I forogt which type of gap is least likely to be filled, but I think its the gap that is created as the market changes direction. But this gap was missed going both ways, and never filled, interesting...
think this may be significant later on? for some reason i just dont see XBI returning that low anytime soon lol
+1 Reply
merkd1904 stockmarket2020
@stockmarket2020, What's XBI? And remember, ALL gaps get filled eventually.
Reply
@merkd1904, its the SP500 biotech etf. i track that sometimes. really looks quite similar to QQQ as it is like a COVID type of etf
Reply