As my previous posts may have shown, i'm not really a huge fan of this rally. We truly do live in the twilight zone right now and TA is being washed out by many different factors including news, QE that's not QE, rate cuts, tweets, hopium, etc. Technically we've been on this $23 rally on declining average volume, on massive RSI bearish divergences on every TF...
As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these...
As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these...
Just out there to take your lunch money. In my last post i stated if we didn't let the price breath a little we'd correct more sharply as we haven't handled the negative divergences on this low volume pump. I can see two different scenarios overnight: White: We retrace the current -.35% print in futures overnight and into the A.M and push back up to the...
Just charting out the upcoming week and a few possible scenarios i see playing out. The biggest addition to the chart is a descending triangle from the highs of our last rally and the highs set yesterday, and the up trend line from the August lows, through the most recent lows. This is a game changer IMO if it plays out. Red: We reverse from where we're at and...
Noted in my futures chart i'm linking to this All week the PPT''s have been on defcon one and hard at work day and night in the futures and cash markets catching the price with a net (market buys) and then setting large buy walls to pump this thing up. That makes me hesitant to long just for the simple fact that at any given moment they can flip the switch on...
The PPT's have been hard at work both day and night keeping this shit buoyant. We'll see when they get called off and who's left holding the bag. This has been a low volume pump the entire way propped up by large buy walls that come through as market sells when the market starts eating shit. Makes me suspect. But hey, who knows.
Today was a little disappointing in my eyes as i thought we were going to have that bull flag pattern play out from the past few days. But instead of ripping higher we got goosed, reversed, filled the gap, and tried with a vengeance to regain the 3000 level on ES/SPX. The fight for 3000 is turning out to be pretty epic, there's a heavy bout of resistance here and...
So, after Friday being the newsapalooza it was i hope you jumped on that train. Between the Fed not doing QE (it's kinda QE), good news on the Brexit front (more today as well), and our "Phase 1" trade deal (which isn't anywhere near being inked) we rallied up past the breakdown candle high, only to be rejected from it. I know a lot of traders took a short...
Let's face it. The dude is a master at manipulating the markets and the markets eat it up. But regardless everything is pointing towards this "mini deal" and apparently that's enough good news for everyone to pop champagne and shoot for net ATH's. Today we opened right where we left off after a WILD night in the futures markets and sure enough we ran up to test...
Either we gap up through it or head back down to test the uptrend line, in which i wouldn't expect it to hold.
So we did end up gapping above and into the symmetrical triangle and testing the intermediate term trend line for majority of the day after grinding through it on a low volume/algo pump. It's almost as if everyone had to go collect their thoughts and lick their wounds after the past couple days. But after grinding higher most the day on half avg volume we had an...
Today was another incredibly challenging day to trade intraday. The market wants to be bullish SO bad and honestly i thought we were going to turn there for a minute. But this schizophrenic news flow is whipsawing everyone left and right. I'm personally wearing this one with bad entries and overreactions to news. My target of $289 on SPY and $2900 on ES were...
Even though today's volume was below average it didn't feel like it. I haven't taken a whipsaw to the face like that in a minute. We failed to break through the medium term trend line and the last two hours finally got rejected off of it. In my last post i was expecting a retest of the neckline from the H&S but we ended up gapping over it only to be pushed off the...
Since that short cover rally faded into the wind It looks like we printed a big ol bearflag on the 60 and 120 min charts, again. Barring any super bullish news overnight i'm expecting $282-$283 (Daily 200MA) as our next destination tomorrow. Still no bullish divergences on RSI either.
Just noting that the violence of yesterday and today seems more pronounced than August's sell off. We blew right through the gaps at $291.06 and $288.92. That in itself should tell you this should not be played with. This is the proverbial freight train with no brakes. There strictly aren't any buyers. BUT with that being said we're extremely oversold on every...
Falling wedge and bullish divergences on the RSI. In general this should play out to the upside as much as it pains me to say it. The RSI divergence starts to wash out at about the 4H and is definitely not there on the daily. AND keep in mind SPX and ES did not fill the gap today. There's a dislocation between the SPY and the other two based on the dividend they...
I know it's been a H&S party on a lot of these posts lately and i also am aware it's Asia session and AH's and volume is light but thought i'd point it out. This is on the hourly. If it does play out i'd expect a test and possible break of the 2960.25 level, and if it breaks, taking us down to 2939.25 level (Gap fill on SPX and Spy ). Do i expect this to happen?...