As everyone else is seeing we're at the top, and the end of the massive multi year ascending triangle, as well as nearing the top of the Bollinger. These multi year RSI divergences coupled with that massive ascending wedge, and multi year megaphone scream "SHORT!!" or "LOOK OUT BELOW". I do not see this as a clear break out as we are nowhere near breaking these negative divergences and this entire pump has been on half volume. I did not play, nor even entertain the ascending triangle because it was only about 1% to the real resistance at the top of this ascending wedge around $305. And again, it was on half volume. R/R wasn't there.
In my last post or a few posts ago i stated how it would be extra sketchy for us to break up out of the descending triangle prematurely due to unchecked negative divergences on the 1H-4H. Well, that's exactly what we did.
Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen.
1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. Irrationality wins the day.
2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($256) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well.
BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds.
Top of the Bollinger is 305.31. Good luck.
In my last post or a few posts ago i stated how it would be extra sketchy for us to break up out of the descending triangle prematurely due to unchecked negative divergences on the 1H-4H. Well, that's exactly what we did.
Here in the next week few weeks one of two things is going to happen.
1.) We truly are in the twilight zone and all TA is essentially null and voided by rate cuts, QE that's not really QE, and just cheap and fast capital/leverage sending us on another leg up from here. Irrationality wins the day.
2.) The technicals end up playing out and we break downwards out of this wedge and make our way down to at least the 0.382 fib ($256) or roughly there abouts. That is also likely where the 200 period MA will be as well.
BUT, weekly MACD just crossed, and RSI is breaking the downtrend. There needs to be a conviction break of the top of the ascending wedge on higher than average volume for me to start thinking differently. I don't buy this bullshit for one minute until we do. Until then i'm short SPY and long bonds.
Top of the Bollinger is 305.31. Good luck.
