I dont see it now but... imo that would be big mistake to rule out short term bullish scenario on eth if we keep curent trend line and shape of channel in making. DXY also looks like it can top soon what could give us some nice push up but imo nthing more tnan huge short squueze and more downsde further. his scenario will become very alive only if we will have...
Short term looks like we can have little push to the upside towards 1400 usd. I will consider it as continuation of redistribution and just after its finished I would like to see downward movement to the new lows. I think green line matters and if we will go for new lows there can be our bottom. In that case huge accumulation channel would be very clear.
I think ETH in pair with BTC will correct a little bit more and will move up in next few days. After finishing correction I would like to see some reaction on the support marked on the picture and ater some period of accumulation huge move towards upward band of the channel what would mean we will do wave V, the last one in this bull market.
So far we had some accumulation (red triangle) breaking up and retest of breakout. Until 1070 usd holds there is still a chance to have one major leg up (fake one imo). Its crucial now to break up and get to median of the channel in the making around 1230 usd, then we should test trend line and if holds we must break median to swep range high, then test it from...
ETH likes to move smooth in channel patterns, for now I would like to see some downward movement towards 700-750 usd and forming bottom formation there. If we keep that level we probably will see some consolidation in next few months, 1700 will bee my range high price, if we break it nicely then even V towards ath levels and above will become possible.
We can see that ETH clearly rejectd at 1750 level and 1250 level. Using that resistances we can try to draw horizontal range with bottom near 750 usd. Will 750-1750 be our multi month accumulation range?
A big part of the market would like to see huge capitulation candle what would suggest we already bottomed. Imo there's a chance that capitulation will not occur just because market wants it. So there's a chance we will bleed slowly for couple nxt days, even weeks. In this chart I show comparison to forming bottom in 2018.
Well, different shape but.. seems like we already had once one year long distribution. Then in 2018 we went 50% in one month. I think history can repeat and we can slowly bleed for few more weeks. That would be surprising for those waiting for capitulation event and would give some hope to the bulls that bottom is in.
Well, did work every time before.. let's see how it works now. Looks like we have really lot of space for downside move towards 16/17 k :/
Ethereum falls hard in fud enviornment, it's alreadye reached previous ath level but seems like real capitulation did'nt occur yet. Imo it's still very likely that we see 30% move from here and btc under 20.
Imo we are not done yet with redistribution phase but there are still more and more signs that to distribute more we need higher levels. So we need to see if 30 k level holds and if than we can lift up even to 35/36 imo.
I noticed that everyone drawing trend line in log doesn't incude "covid crash" bottom treating it as "anomaly". Not sure why, it's drawn on chart now, it's a part of the cycles. So just in case things will go very bad I propose that TL which if hit would surprise those waiting for "not gonna test previous ath" pattern..
Imo we are not done yet. Current consolidation looks like redidtribution for me and at least once we should visit range low and probably break the range down then.
30.7 usd should be a strong resistance for bitcoin. If we reject here I think we will fall pretty fast towards new local bottom near 28.4. If we can break it up than a pump even towards 32.7 will be possible.
For now we can see specific range intact as we could have seen in 2018-2020 bear market. The whole cycle is closed in huge channel pattern and for no it looks like we are going to touch median line for the first time from the upside. If this will hold I can see chance to get our bottom and possible spring reaction ending our expanded flat correction.
On ETH ranges are pretty clear. If we go further down then 1.1/3 area should hold. Imo actual range will hold and after few months of consolidation we will start to grind up to range high, then will break up to nxt level up.
While everybody over and over keeps repeating that this cycle is "different" we had exacly same pattern of reaccumulation scheme on ETH in 2016 before a start of one year parabolic grows. Actual "expanded flat" looks pretty much the same as that one in 2016. Let's see how it goes.
Imo it's very interesting that touches of 2018/2020 bottoms and '20 highs from actual cycle give us perfect super-channel with just one touch with median so far at "mini bubble" 2019 and heading towards second touch from the upside. In bullish scenario it could be our bottom imo, so around 21 k. But what's next? Red channel is an idea how can it go if things...