mjk123

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Markets Allocation
15 % stocks 8 % forex 77 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
UKOIL 30% | 4 NGAS 23% | 3 NAS 7% | 1 GDX 7% | 1
mjk123 mjk123 UKOIL, W, Long
UKOIL: oil midterm outlook
33 0 4
UKOIL, W Long
oil midterm outlook

i have been changing my mind concerning oil over the last days and weeks. i did expect a rebound from the mid-june lows, but first i didnt expect the drop to be so deep, and second i didnt expect the following very choppy price action. both seem to me to be a sign of an intermediate turning point (to the upside from here) note that the weekly macd is about to ...

mjk123 mjk123 UKOIL, D,
UKOIL: oil mid term guess
59 0 4
UKOIL, D
oil mid term guess

the really interesting thing about oil is, that the prices seem to be alot more market driven than producer driven (more product than demand i know..) so prices keep floating around, driven by the markets, hence patterns (if guessed right seem to work pretty fine), so here is my next guess: oil will go up once more before falling down to the low 40's or worse..

mjk123 mjk123 USOIL, D, Long
USOIL: oil rebounding
62 0 5
USOIL, D Long
oil rebounding

yes long! this sounds completly insane and i think this is quite risky call at the moment. bears seem to be in full control of this, but todays breakdown could be a nice reversal point. and the fact that almost all comments are bearish might be the best reason to buy...very small position though...

mjk123 mjk123 GDXJ, W, Long
GDXJ: gdx, gdxj gold miners rebound till august
121 5 9
GDXJ, W Long
gdx, gdxj gold miners rebound till august

miners and gold made quite massive moves down. after breaking the assumed trend line from the december lows we must find a different pattern to explain the recent moves. my best explanation now is that we are about to complete an abc correction(now-august) before the last leg down(aug-dec). this would also coincide with the seasonality in gold---up from now till ...

mjk123 mjk123 GDX, W, Long
GDX: miners coming back to the trend line...
248 1 6
GDX, W Long
miners coming back to the trend line...

this was a massiv move down yesterday for the miners, and i guess we come at least to test the trend line, (junior miners already came down..). at the moment it looks like we could even retest the dec.lows, on the other hand gold itself looks alot better, so either gold comes down as well, or miners go back up again, probably alot depends on the next rate decisions...

mjk123 mjk123 UKOIL, D,
UKOIL: oil reaching multiple trendlines
55 0 6
UKOIL, D
oil reaching multiple trendlines

this is becoming interesting now.. i didn't expect oil to go down that fast again- (this could be a sign of real weakness??) i still do expect a bounce of the 50$ area... if this does not hold we could fall back to 45-42 area...

mjk123 mjk123 NGAS, D, Long
NGAS: ngas long
56 0 3
NGAS, D Long
ngas long

i guess this idea is not very unique, but i think it is quite remarkable how precise ngas is mooving, we will see if this works out, i will enter in a few days, no need to rush, we might have still some room to the bottom..

mjk123 mjk123 NGAS, D, Short
NGAS: ngas set for correction
60 0 2
NGAS, D Short
ngas set for correction

ngas has been developping a very nice up-channel (with quite wild price swings) my opinion is: the next move- is down for the moment...

mjk123 mjk123 XAUUSD, 240, Short
XAUUSD: gold going down again?
51 0 2
XAUUSD, 240 Short
gold going down again?

after finally reaching the 0.618 fib.level, to me it seems the bull ride is over again and we see another move to the downside....

mjk123 mjk123 EURMXN, 240,
EURMXN: EURMXN comeback for the mexican peso?
11 0 1
EURMXN, 240
EURMXN comeback for the mexican peso?

the mexican peso has been really strong for the last few week's. especially against the euro, but also against the us-dollar. i expect a moderate correction for now to form the right shoulder of a HS reversal formation.

mjk123 mjk123 NGAS, D,
NGAS: NGAS short
42 0 0
NGAS, D
NGAS short

NGAS is making some pretty wild moves. I believe we are still in the correction started in July, and we are about to see one more move down to the major trend line up.

mjk123 mjk123 NAS100, D,
NAS100: time cycles
318 1 4
NAS100, D
time cycles

recently i have bee playing around with fib. retracements and time cycles and i am just amazed how often this correlates with price action. this example is interesting since we are about to see another turning point soon, if this also works out this time (could be friday-us.jobs report??)

mjk123 mjk123 UKOIL, D, Long
UKOIL: oil about to turn up again?
64 1 3
UKOIL, D Long
oil about to turn up again?

I Think we are seeing a perfect H&S Formation leading oil the another step up to 60? (too soon to go long yet of course..!)

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