mljones

mljones Updated 

The cl chart has not changed in a long time, the basic mode has been to orbit 56. The current linear regression mid is 56.32 so nothing has changed in many a moon. Right now it's a bit lower than its expected support zone and it just printed a test and rejection wick of higher prices. I do not plan on trading CL much until it makes up its mind to go higher, or...

mljones

Quite a bullish signal on the Bill Williams Alligator Indicator showing that it's starting to swallow its prey. I don't usually use this indicator but from what I remember when it closes its mouth it's like a golden or death cross. IMO moving averages are the kind of thing where by the time you notice the cross over it's already too late and you should have...

mljones

Expecting ABC correction near $200 maybe to $165. I've already built most of my long term multi year position so I feel like trading in an out of little patterns on the day chart could be considered over trading that might result in getting bumped out of the market right before a huge bull run to new highs. So I am not planning to sell at $200 but instead am...

mljones Updated 

I'm 99% switched over to long term trading but here's a little andrew's pitchfork that appeared due to the sharp counter trend move this morning. The idea is to use the counter trend sweep to define a max expected adverse move during the current 5 wave impulse. This trade would only work using a small amount of risk since there's an expected reversal at $10k. I...

mljones

I've compared the recent 4 wave points to the counter trend line and eth is the farthest above it. I think this makes eth the most bullish of all even though I expect it to have trouble getting past $200. I do expect it to retrace maybe to the $165 area but I'm probably not going to bother trading that because there's also a high chance that cryptos as a whole...

mljones

This is not a trade I'm likely to trade at all because I'm allocating everything to eth btc and bnb but this might be useful for a bit of scalping along the way. LTC is quite bullish and its 4 wave point did not even need to come down all the way to the counter trend line from the wxyxz move. This means it's more bullish than doge and xrp which I did similar...

mljones

On the weekly chart there might be one more chance for lowering cost basis on multi-year positions since there's a 5 wave impulse coming to an end and that might allow lower price for a bit. However there's also the chance that it might make another move like last april where it just took off and allowed no pull backs. So I am treating this as an area where...

mljones Updated 

A while back I posted my intent to buy at 0.016464 but I was never filled there. When price narrowly glances off my entry point it gets my attention but I DO NOT chase price. Instead I have patience to wait for it to test that price a 2nd time and make a box. I am looking for a right corner on the box somewhere in the range of the Jan 7 candle which seems to be...

mljones Updated 

BNB is following a common pattern most cryptos are on where it just completed the end of a 4 wave and is working on wave 5 of an impulse. Also like most cryptos, its 5 wave fib extension region matches with a prior congestion region. For BNB it's about 21 or so. I think scaling out of longs between 19 and 21 would be reasonable. There is also the possibility...

mljones

Continuing the same pattern as xrp and bnb doge has a 4 point that is pretty much right on the channel trend line and it has decisively broken above it. This looks like doge has a pretty good shot at breaking out of the down trend and completing a 5 wave in the region of 0.003. I would not mortgage my kidneys to buy doge but it goes to show that by comparison xrp...

mljones

Most cryptos are following a pattern where they just printed a 4 wave point which is supported by the top of the downward channel they've been in. (See attached bnb chart for an example) However for xrp its 4 point is well below the red channel trend line on the chart so the likelihood that its 5 wave will even hit the prior congestion region seems muted. If it...

mljones

It's been somewhat easy to pick out intraday shorts on crude lately. It's back at the bottom of the range so it's likely to chop then orbit back toward 56. I plan to wait for something somewhat obvious to signal the reversal is in such as a big outside day. The last time it made the sweep upward it was very choppy so I would just use a LOT of caution here.

mljones Updated 

Eth is looking like it will have to undergo at least one ABC correction before getting past $200 which has been a barrier for a while. The fib extensions on this impulse mean the 5th wave will be weakening right about the time it gets to the bag holders who want to sell at 200 so it will probably go sideways a bit before turning back up. However the good news is...

mljones

Looking to unload some longs pretty soon. The fibs on the recent move look like it has the potential to go past $10k but I want to be mostly scaled out before then. I'm expecting it to retest the recent support/resistance area around 8600 which would form a 2 wave. I am not going to let that shake me out of my position unless it goes a lot below 8600 after making...

mljones

It's coming off the top of the channel so visually it looks like this would be a good place to take profits on some long swings I have. However the elliot count looks like it could have completed a 4 wave before the 5 which breaks out of the downward channel. I feel like this is the kind of place where I should just let my profits run because it could go quite a...

mljones

Using linear regression to find the channel trend lines it looks like BTC is still inside the downward channel and hasn't broken out yet. A lot of people are saying the bull market is officially here because it looks like it has broken out but it all depends on how you draw that top side channel trend line. So using linear regression to get a more objective line...

mljones

It just ran up and is chopping backwards looking for support. This is quite a bad area to trade in. Once it crosses the pitchfork median line it will make sense to look for price action that shows it is nearing a bottom. The support/resistance region around 1520 or so will probably be a good area to shift back to a bullish intraday bias and maybe even swing...

mljones

Coming off top of linear regression channel edge, only direction for intraday trades is down.