We have just broken the support level the 7th time this year. This underlines the importance of this level. In line with the weak trend of the world stock exchanges I consider this repeated break as a decisive one.
After the correction of the downmove we were able to close above the MA with a small body candle and are attempting to rise again.
We passed the support of the 77.70-80 zone as well as the MA, so that a further decline may be expected.
Despite some downward pressure the past days the price is holding well above the bottom and gapping up today again.
After the profit taking and the retracement of the fall I am expecting another wave of decline.
We fell below the supporting trendlines very fast and are approaching the main support zone now. It should be tested.
We bounced back at what seems to be a triple resistance: The low of 27th November, the MA and the 50 % retracement level of the decline since 3rd December. This may leed to a further fall of the dollar.
The last green candle has been the retracement of the begun decline which can continue now.
Despite the rise above the falling trendline we are stopping below the important resistance zone. So I consider the break of the trendline as a fals one.
However this is not a channel but may be a large falling triangle. Nevertheless at first we shall see a futher decline following the narrowing trendlines.
We have left the triangle on the upside and are retesting it from top now.
Until the 20th November we saw a correction within the trend that has been confirmed now by the rise above the MA.
The Vortex Indicator has begun to rise again already so that I expect the price to follow soon.
We have reached the resistance zone again now and I expect it to hold.
The dollar is in clear uptrend overall due to the expectations of rising interest whereas the rouble is under pressure as capital flees Russia. The recent spike after a short periode of consolidation, however without any retracement down indicates a further dollar rise.
The recent rise has been retraced by 50 % now and may continue now.