Looks like I might have been a bit early on this one. Primary 2 can go a whole lot deeper but I anticipated the potential for a shallow retrace. Breaking down today.
Not sure yet the low is in on this miner. If so, (1) should target 4.95~6.76.
Should start to see some consolidation here soon for wave 4 of (1). Retraces could be shallow if this is indeed setting up wave (3) of Primary 3.
My old white count, while technically still valid, looks highly unlikely. I'm swapping to this yellow count where price is a few cents from the 61.8% retrace level at 16.11. I'm counting wave B of (2) as a triangle where the e-wave came up short of the DTL, as shown. There are other interpretations, such as a W-X-Y where this decline is the (c)-wave of Y of...
Small caps may not take much of a pause until IWM reaches high 130s (100% extension of 1-2). I think that'll be the target area for wave (iii) of cir-iii. Resistance has become support in this presumed 3rd wave off the Feb lows. Shorts keep piling in, fueling the rally it seems. I have an earlier idea posted for IWM but my "link to related ideas" menu isn't...
Here's the generational potential I mentioned on the Daily "Big Picture" idea linked below. Could price correct deeper? Sure. Anything's possible. I included a box for the 38.2-61.8% retrace of I-II (log scale).
White log-based fib calculations are a bit premature as wave (2) hasn't confirmed a bottom. These are based on a bottom at 1199.55 for illustration. Regardless, this is the bullish case should support hold and wave (3) take hold. Targets to be refined further after (2) completes with added confidence on 1-2. Timing uncertain, so don't interpret the labels as...
My old yellow alternative (2) has become my primary now. Allowing for one more local low in (v) of cir-c of Y of (2), as shown. Other ways to count this corrective slop; red A-B-C for example. Regardless, entering support for possible turn higher. I'll be looking for technical divergence (on MACD and RSI for example) as well as an initial impulsive move higher...
Russell 2000 visited the top of resistance, slightly breaking over. IF this is the heart of the 3rd wave, I'm expecting RSI to become embedded and MACD to make an impressive push higher. May not be many pullbacks assuming this is the (iii) of cir-iii of 3. My target is ~144.95 for minute degree cir-iii, the 123.6% extension of waves 1-2, log scale.
White count, while technically still valid, looks to be most unlikely. Price visited my target box for yellow alt (2) and could find a bottom soon. Positive divergences holding would be helpful, but price is the real tale. Note the similarity of gold's count to the Gold Bug's Index (HUI) linked below. IF gold is bottoming, then something like this white line...
More than a few miners I'm trading count similar to the Gold Bugs Index, with a complex W-X-Y move in the presumed near completion of primary wave 2.
For something trading under $1, gotta be careful. But then look at what some other miners that have been beaten down managed to do earlier this year... I'm holding a small long position and adding periodically.
White count appears operative. I'm holding, looking to add.
Long from 2.35. Stop 2.15. Might be a long-term hold but I'm showing a notional trade to the $9 region.
Yellow count looks operative. I'm holding long and looking to add.
AG has unbelievable potential in this count. Wave III could go even higher, to the 161.8% extension, but I'll take even a 100% measured move to ~$97...