I would like to think that it is too early for bulls to rejoice. I have closed out my long positions last Friday and am looking to short gold by market open. Gold weekly has shown slight recovery with a pinbar (following NFP results two weeks ago; disappointing results primarily due to Hurricane Irma's impact) confirmed by a strong green candle closing at 1303....
I think most people fail to realize that we broke down from a multi-year uptrend and we probably are experiencing an actual correction of the Elliot Wave count as I have shown in my previous posts. As one can see, I'd like to believe that we are currently in wave IV-A of the gold -0.02% super cycle, in which case is seen to correct at 38.2%, or around $800 to $900...
I'm bored and have nothing to do at the moment so let me test the credibilitiy of the 3-hour gold time frame. Long this closing candle with SL at 1317, targeting 1355.
Note: I publish posts as a personal guide. Be responsible for your own trade, and most of all practice proper risk management.
I concluded two major potential selling buying points for FX:XAUUSD. The plan consists of selling at the 1333-1336 all the way down to 1277-1280 range for another round up.
Note: I use my published posts as a trading guide. Please trade responsibly.
Finally, I am able to devote some time analyzing gold's movement, with complete channels and trend lines coupled with an Elliot Wave analysis at the current levels following the UK referendum which we all know to have resulted in a win by Brexit supporters by a small margin.
From my point of view, I believe that we are in wave (iii) of 3 of this cycle...
1300 and 1291 are key resistance and support zones respectively, both equally likely to hold. Buy the breakout on either side and stay on the sidelines if you are unsure of the trade. Good luck! *Note: I post analysis as a personal guide. Be responsible for your own trade.
1300 and 1291 are key resistance and support zones respectively, both equally likely to hold. Buy breakout on either side and stay on the sidelines if you are unsure of the trade. Good luck!
*Note: I post analysis as a personal guide. Be responsible for your own trade.
Due to NFP numbers, I am updating the gold's movement projection. 1200 remains a strong support at this moment, while target should be around 1373 to 1463 in the following months, maybe at the end of the year. As soon as the Fed subscribes to a dovish stance, this could easily sky rocket to 1300. BrExit may also be a factor in this flight towards 1400 levels.
After breaking uptrend since few weeks ago, gold has broken through the downward path and is on it's way towards the green line (1170 to 1180) after doing from the red line (1219 to 1225).
Catalyst: Interest rate hike
Fibonacci retracements coupled with bearish MA crossovers shall drive this down. Purely technical until data comes out. Upside will most likely be due to weak Japan data coupled with the strength of the dollar.