Bonds are getting smashed. It looks like either someone knows something we don't about Nonfarm Payrolls, or the bond market has finally excepted the risk on exuberance of the stock market. Both Kovach Momentum Indicators are solidly bearish, so avoid honey-badgering your way into a trade. The Elliott Wave suggests we should have a pullback before retracing...
Stocks hit a high in perfect alignment with the Fibonacci extension levels at 3127. Watch for a technical retracement down 3096, or the psychologically important 3100. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but the Kovach Chande shows a dip implying that this could be a good time to get long if you are still bullish of stocks. However, after such a rally a retracement...
Heavily risk-on news drove prices up to make new relative highs. Currently, they are facing resistance at the Fibonacci extension level formed by anchoring the upper and lower bound of the inverse head and shoulders from which they broke out. Watch for a retracement (morning squeeze) at least to 3078 before breaking out higher. The Kovach OBV is very overbought...
The two year has remained relatively flat since this week's open. However it did gap up significantly. Why is the 30 year falling (see linked article) while the two year remains consistent? Bonds of different maturities care about different things. In particular, the shorter end of the spectrum cares less about the long term effects of inflation and the...
ZB has apparently broken down from a bear wedge pattern. The level 177'30 marked a the lower bound of a significant range and this level will now provide resistance, where it once provided support. The Kovach Chande has turned negative, whereas the Kovach OBV is still relatively neutral. The bear trend will be confirmed when the Kovach OBV, which measures...
Stocks ain't got time for coronavirus, trade tensions with China, or riots and civil unrest in the United States. The S&P has broken out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern and solidly established new monthly highs. This is most likely the beginning of a new Elliott Wave impulse. Both Kovach momentum indicators are very bullish at this point, so wait for...
Bonds have traced out the *exact* range I spelled out for you Friday. Watch for some resistance 138'31, especially as more news of riots diffuses into the markets. The Kovach Momentum Indicators have been largely neutral. We are still in a sideways Elliott Wave correction phase, and this will likely continue unless the markets are convinced we are back solidly...
Stocks could really go either way. While the S&P 500 is looking "toppy" with a red triangle on the Kovach Reversals Indicator, the Kovach OBV (blue indicator) remains pretty bullish and there is a pullback in the Kovach Chande. Those of you who have studied these indicators knows that is a long signal. We are in a relative vacuum zone, so it is likely to see a...
Oil appears to be in the fifth and final impulse of the sideways corrective phase. If this is true, we can expect a breakout soon, in either direction. Watch for a retracement back to 31 beforehand. The Kovach momentum indicators are relatively level, but oscillating about a mean, lending credibility to the sideways movement.
Bonds are having trouble making higher highs. Both Kovach momentum indicators have levelled off or retraced, and we have a red triangle at the high of that candle at 139'10'5, indicating a pullback is coming. Look for ZN to establish value in the highlighted region. Additionally volume has dropped off, and we appear to still be maintaining a sideways corrective phase.
Oil took a big hit yesterday, but this should be understandable considering how much it has rallied. It appears to be an a 5 wave corrective phase, so watch for it to drift back up to test the 34 handle. If we are wrong, we could see another push down to the psychological and technical $30 level. The Kovach OBV has dropped off significantly, indicating oil has...
DXY followed our technicals from yesterday 100%. If you recall, we predicted that it would see some support off 98.99, since this was the lower bound of the range. Later, it was able to punch through this and sail through the vacuum zone we discussed yesterday. We have to go to 1 hour candles and go back even further to the beginning of May to get the next...
Stocks followed my Elliott Wave almost perfectly (save for the very last segment). Looks like they've broken out of the psychologically important 3000 level, but just barely. The real level to watch is 2975, as this represents the upper bound of the sideways corrective wave. This will provide support. Try to avoid honey-badgering your way into a long trade...
Stocks continue their 5 Wave sideways correction. If this is accurate, we can expect one more pullback before the breakout. The S&P has retraced much of the coronavirus pandemic melt down, however it appears to be having trouble with breaking 2977. If it can't breakout from here, expect a dip back down to the 2500's. The Kovach OBV remains strong, indicating...
Bonds broke down from my H&S pattern yesterday. After such a breakdown, they are likely to range, or retrace a bit. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish suggesting there is more to come but in the immediate term we can expect a sideways correction, bouncing off the levels as I have drawn them
Stocks did dip exactly to our level from yesterday, and bounced as predicted, though admittedly not to the extent we were anticipating. It does appear that the S&P is making an inverse head and shoulders pattern, though recall from our trading program that it is important not to trade this preemptively. I do see stocks making a run for what could be the neckline...
Gold has been trading sideways, in a symmetrical triangle Elliott Wave corrective impulse. This is an advanced wave, but is basically a pennant. Notice how the Kovach OBV has subsided drastically. Watch for a retracement to one of the Fib levels below before another burst of momentum
Stocks got smashed yesterday, and are trading well below the value area established over the past several days. The meagre rally we see appears to be a relief rally, with little momentum behind it. This is evidenced by the Kovach OBV (blue indicator on the bottom of the chart). We are likely to break lower unless news sways to the risk-on side.