Stocks are climbing steadily but do not appear to have the momentum they did earlier. I'd wait for a nice dip to consider getting long. We have some support from a minor level at 2915 or so. Watch out because we may be forming a head and shoulders with the neckline at this level. We are bound to face resistance at the high of 2970. We still have a long way to...
There has been a lot of chatter in #cryptocurrencies about Bitcoin, so I have added it by popular demand. It seems really over bought at this point, evidenced by the Kovach Momentum Indicators. Watch for resistance at 8033 or so, but note the vacuum zone up to 9145, a Fib extension level and technical level. Otherwise 6782 is the nearest level from below. Note...
With the trade war escalating, stocks are likely to continue their slide. Investors world wide were hoping for clarification on the trade war, but what they received was an ambiguous tweet that was later deleted. China appears ready to escalate, which should add to the tensions and risk off tone. Stocks are very likely to close the gap down to lower levels,...
The whole world was glued to twitter waiting for an update on the trade war from President Trump. However what they received was rather anticlimactic: a tweet about saying we don't need to rush a trade deal, which was later deleted. It is likely the markets will interpret this as a risk-off event, since they were really expecting more clarification. Currently,...
Bonds have been gradually overbought owing to a slew of risk off factors including global economic fears, and the trade war. At this point, we may be due for a corrective phase by the end of the week. There is a representative from China flying in, so this may provide a much needed respite from the doom and gloom. The Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that...
There is a nearly perfect Elliott Wave forming in stocks, with the corrective phase nearing completion. This indicates that we may be seeing the beginning of another bull impulse wave very soon. True, there is lots of doom and gloom over the trade deal, but Trump is known for wrecking the markets with his tweets, only to provide a resolution shortly after. ...
Stocks are forming an open auction day, consolidating about yesterday's POC. They seem to be knocking on the upper bound of this range, indicating we may see a slow drift higher. This would make sense as the markets have been beaten down off trade fears for the past few days. Keep in mind that a headline could send us careening up or down depending on whether...
DOE oil inventories are released today. We turn to yesterday's API to see a large build, which was broadly inline with expectations so it didn't move oil too much. The trade would be a surprise draw, just keep in mind that oil has been squeezing like crazy after DOE lately, sometimes nearly 100 ticks which is crazy (even for oil). Prices still seem to be beaten...
As for the FOMC, it is likely that the Fed will remain dovish or cut rates. The markets have priced in a cut by the end of 2019. I personally find it unlikely that will happen at this meeting. There are two reasons to believe that the Fed will remain dovish: 1. Even though the US economy has 'picked up' in the sense that the data is much better respective to...
Moody's upgrade of Visa to AAA3 status places it in a very exclusive club of only a handful of companies (including Microsoft). With financials like Visa has, it is difficult to see anything getting in its way short of a recession. The technicals are extremely strong. We are in a textbook uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. The only drawback is that we...
As I said yesterday, despite global weakness (e.g. weak Chinese PMI last night), bonds look due for a correction from their massive rally last week, pricing in Fed dovishness and perhaps a rate cut tomorrow. We may hold current levels before the FOMC tomorrow as some ranging is expected before such a major event. The technicals are extremely bearish of bonds. ...
Oil seems poised to rip to higher prices after yet another Trump tweet knocked it down 300 ticks or so from the 66 handle down to the 63 handle. Historically, the markets take his tweets seriously in the short term, but nothing has changed in the way of the fundamentals for CL. There is still turmoil in the middle east, Venezuela, and with Iran. Libya and...
The 30 year treasury futures contract is nearing some significant resistance after rallying all last week. True, it was pricing in a more dovish stance from the Fed, but with stocks nearing highs, we have to wonder when this may bleed into the bond market, continuing a more risk-on tone, and the overall bear phase. We do appear to be in the 4th (corrective)...
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Bonds have broken a ranging period that they've held for months. Yields are near 7-year highs. That being said there's a big retracement starting to form on 30min/4hour charts so watch for it to test one of the Fibs. As you see it just broke 236 so it’s likely it will make a run for 382. The Kovach Indicators seem to confirm this. It seems we will likely...
Neo has been hammered along with the rest of the cryptoverse. It seems only BTC feels any respite from the clout and any bull signs are swiftly kicked back by coordinated selloffs of large wallets. The Kovach Momentum Indicators are both bearish, and there does not seem like there is much hope to gain from them. Currently, neo is near the central moving...