While the Fed is boasting good data supporting rate hikes, they neglect to mention the fact that 51% of Americans make less than $30K a year, or that they work more hours than any country in the world. Something else they focus on are broad market indices for which the top 500 companies carry the slack of the smaller cap companies which are feeling the weight of...
Largely a function of what crude oil is doing, the Canadian dollar simply cant keep up, even despite the rally in crude earlier today. Further, weak jobs data does not help. Although we have a nice 0.7403, the slope of the upper bounds steepens indicating the bears are awake. Also, there is a "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern indicating a level was tested...
There are a variety of reasons fundamentally why taking a long position on the TNOTE makes sense. First, the destabilization of the Euro helps as the Euro varies inversely as mentioned in the article. Further, the plummeting price of crude oil has a deflationary impact on the economy, which is inversely correlated with bond prices. Technically, we don't have...
Following the strong bearish momentum from yesterday's ECB QE report, non farm payrolls came out positive, clearing way for the S&P to return to its former bullish rally. Even further, oil is expected to drop below $40 a barrel (finally), which is icing on the cake at this point. The technicals are behind us. Note that the OBV has increased sharply from...
The subtle news from the ECB came a bit unexpected as to the extent of Quantitative Easing. The fact that the expectation was so massively bearish caused the Euro to rally like crazy. Historically the Euro and SPY have been anti correlated (I've verified this personally), and as such we can expect a dip in stocks today. On the technical side, note the fact that...
Following the IMF's decision to add the Yuan to the SDR bucket. Fundamentally, this will imply a rush to stock up. Many central banks keep a reserve supply of other currencies, commodities, etc, with an emphasis on SDR's. This fact, coupled with the dollars eventual deceleration come an interest rate decision in December could imply that CNHUSD will be a good...
The markets appear to be pricing in QE and the impending rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The attached article explores this a bit. We have seen a massive depreciation in the Euro, and this will undoubtedly continue until 'liftoff' December 16th. In particular, we see a brief retracement amidst an overall bearish trend. The bearish wedge formation indicates...
In the wake of strong real estate data, we can expect a turn around for its respective ETF's such as the Vanguard ETF, VNQ. In addition to the fundamentals, there is a lot of reason to believe this might be a good long position. We've finally started to see some headway breaking the level at around $77, which also corresponds to a strong fibonacci level. There...
AUD has been rallying ever since the RBA rate decision, and strong PMI data. Meanwhile, the sentiment toward the Euro is bearish on account of the recent Paris tragedy. These two facts form 'perfect storm' of potential for AUDEUR, as we can clearly see. Now is not the time for optimal entry, as we've seen 5 years of consecutive rallying and are due for a...
In the wake of the Paris atrocity and increased efforts for military presence in Syria and the middle east in general, you can expect a rally in government contractor stocks. Pictured are three government contractor ETFs: XAR, ITA, and PPA. Notice the big rally today, suggesting buying pressure. This is confirmed via the OBV indicator. We see a lot of...
You'll be tempted to short SPY in the wake of the tragic terror attacks on France. But not so fast. Sure, these attacks but their effect on the financial markets is not nearly as detrimental as 9/11. The forex market did show a dip in the Euro, but not nearly drastic enough to be fearful. Nevertheless, expect extreme volatility as the markets scramble to...
A series of lower lows in a 'sawtooth' pattern are all testing the level around 1.4008. Note there is a comparative vacuum area from below which means this breakout has a lot of room to move. There is a rather strong Ichimoku cloud of resistance from above, and it is apparent that there is simply not enough momentum to punch through it. Further, the MACD and...
The bullish run for the markets appears to be slowing especially as the impending interest rate hike gets becomes more of a reality. Some bearish signs are especially prevalent for QQQ, as we see a relative vacuum area from below and lots of room before we hit any resistance from the Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the RSI, MACD and OBV all indicate an unfortunate...
As crude slides due to production news, it stands to reason that oil and energy companies will fall with it. BP is no exception. Although the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from below, it appears as if this asset has enough momentum to break through. Note the downturn in MACD/RSI and OBV. There is also a relative vacuum area from below, aside for a...
The attached article cites bullish fundamentals due to overseas investments on the part of NFLX and that they really have no other good competitors at this point. On the technical side, we see that its really trying to break that level or resistance at 114.16 or so. Once it does that, its a relative vacuum area above so it should be smooth sailing at least until...
With the strength of the dollar seemingly unstoppable (at least until December interest rate news comes out), USD seems like a good bet in general. In particular NZDUSD made the Morgan Stanley chart of the week (see link), in terms of bearishness. Also, New Zealand PMI just came out a bit lower than previous which supports this assertion. On the technical side,...
I called out EUFN as a potential short on bad news for European Investment Banks. Although I cashed in on a pretty sweet trade, I still think this ETF has room to tumble. Notice that it is still solidly within a large Ichimoku cloud of resistance, and it does not appear that this asset has near enough momentum on the upside to break out. The OBV, MACD, and RSI...
BTCUSD looks like it might rally here shortly. We see some strong resistance from below via the Ichimoku cloud. The OBV indicates strong buying pressure still. The MACD and RSI are right in the 'sweet spot'. Moreover, we have somewhat higher lows and a double bottom formation. The Fibonacci retracement indicates some nice profit targets, otherwise we can use...