Been very busy and its been a while since I posted. Apologies for that and thanks to all of you who keep up the good work.
In two minds here, which is a typical predicament with trading.
The 15th October spike that popped through the top of the long term triangle has been seen by some as a bear flag, and I can see their point, but for me there is more...
focusing purely on RSI, BTC' has been working along some channels nicely. The latest bullish channel has been severely broken downward and somewhat expectantly. I thus expect a sudden, rapid and large leg up, although its so tenuous, I'll just be watching and learning.
The green channel is for 15 minute interval, also broken. Expect the turn probably to occur on...
ITs been a nice ride up, and sentiment looks very good. However for any kind of continuation we need some cooling off in the form of pull back.
There a divergence on the 15min and 1 hr charts on the RSI, playing into the CCI pullback on the 1day chart.
The 4 hr chart shows CCI divergence and is starting to show RSI too.
A 50% retrace to ~7300 would be enough,...
Well this Gann fan is proving pretty reliable so far.
Currently we are looking at another couple of days of little movement followed by a dump. This means hovering above the 6000 mark and if things follow the recent pattern, there will be a move up followed by a hug drop down.
Need to be careful here. There is day trading available on the move up, but if...
The Gann Fan is not an exact science but gives some indications of movement. I set it up after the turning point on 29th May.
BTCUSD price has followed the lines quite well when taken in conjunction with other indicators.
Right now price looks to have closed in on the 2/1 line, but there is room for more movement, probably going past before swing...
BTC has consistently taken a downward trend this year, broken back up until CCI hits 100, then created a new downward trend. The most recent breakout has just occurred and the upward movement is current.
For any mooning to occur we need to break the orange trend line and 0.382 fib (line near $8200) & 0.5 fib ($8500).
I'll try to squeeze some profits at both...
Top rectangle has already been touched so may or may not be hit again.
AB wobble on the way down near the log trend line
Bottom rectangle is the main target for next entry (bottom of channel coinciding with Gann 2/1 fann line). Spread entry covering the top of the box and down to the 0.236 fib line at ~7409
These are notes to myself, open to anyone to...
Blue lines show how the bounce always gives a second opportunity to enter trade after a surge either up or down. The grey box shows the next opportunity.
However, my last post showed a bounce off the Gann Fann 2/1 line which should instigate a reversal. We therefore have to be careful and keep an eye on more than just price. EG: watch the CCI for indications of...
Dotted orange: Standard scale May resistance line
Resisted, then broke through on next attempt
Blue solid line: Gann fan 2/1 (using May 20th peak and May 29th reversal point as 1/1 line)
Resisted and according to Gann should cause a reversal - lets see.
Dashed orange: Log scale May resistance line
Not yet reached
Actually a rising wedge, which...
one heck of a lot of resistance here
RSI downward trend
CCI downward trends
The support was not fully tested
Bearish divergence on the 1hr and 15 minute intervals
I'd be surprised if this breaks through, but if it does, good momentum will be gained.
Personally I've taken some profits with reentries set up should the resistance breakdown.
My last post showed the current 1day RSI divergence. Thought I would take a look at historical data on similar situations, as divergence doesn't always lead to expected changes. However in doing so I was surprised to find only one. It occurred at the end of 2017 and we all know the outcome of that. The StochRSI also has similarities. I am thus in a mild panic that...
BTC has divergence on the 1D RSI. We are also looking for a decent pullback to help the general bull trend.
The 50% line at 8358 is a good target, with some additional support from mid-April and mid-May.
The trading strategy followed here is designed to keep things very simple and minimise the amount of time spent analysing and watching BTC charts. Its very safe, so often big jumps can be missed, but the even bigger falls are missed also.
Rule 1: Only buy when 1day StochRSI is bullish and above 30%
Rule 2: Look to enter trade when 4hr StochRSI is...
6500 provided the expected small support.
More support just above 6000, which should provide a bounce off the bottom of the triangle.
If the top of the triangle provides enough resistance BTC will drop to 5400 for a larger bounce.
This is all somewhat subjective and many clarifications and checks need to be seen before trading. It could go either way and it...
TA is all well and good. Its fun and informative. There is however a lot of ambiguity, so I have been working on building a simple strategy. I have tested it over the period since the downturn and tripled the investment. However its all been theoretical and I am now putting it into practice. I will keep the complex TA going, but also keep it separate from this...