A very similar setup to (see attached: "Lower highs cooked ... 5200 incoming") as ETH will be moving via default with the correction in BTC. Here we have a 30% correction in play to the downside. After the initial impulsive wave has retraced, it is time to start working the sell side and buckle up for a brutal move coming. Best of luck all those working the sell side.
It is a good time for a chart update here as we approach the first targets in the macro swing at 1.284. We traded live here on Tradingview in the related ideas (see attached) no less than 8 short entries in significant value areas for this swing (in the infamous loading zone). I would highly recommend those interested in swing trading to dig into the archives......
The selloff we have seen since September highs has looked impulsive in nature and would imply a meaningful top is in place for a rather long time. Here since we broke the January lows at 69.2 confidence as increased to the underlying change in trend. I would recommend considering adding downside exposure on the current bounce for a test of the lows. Targets for...
Here we can see the market has completed 5 waves in the sequence since October 2018. It has held the target so far in the 5th wave and since broken out of the downtrend. The floor is starting to form and aggressive entries have begun, those waiting will have confidence increased above 0.597% and 0.660%. An impulsive rise through here will imply that we will move...
Here tracking the next impulsive wave to the downside in BTC . From a wave perspective here we are trading wave 3 of a 5 wave sequence, inside a larger sequence (see attached: "The 2017 highs unlocked") ... if you notice in this retrace wave (wave 2) it has happened with a very empty book ... or in other words there is no real money supporting the move. Once...
A terrible day for global risk sentiment with all major Equities finishing in the red. Highlights came from Fed Fund futures taking 6bp out of the Fed pricing until December, meaning markets have now fully priced a rate cut by year end. Dollar looks set to take control of the FX board once more as USD bulls enter back into the picture. I am becoming increasingly...
After clearing our first targets on the test of 1.310 area prices have bounced and we are witnessing some nice profit taking. Here we can be clear, a decline through the most recent lows will open up the leg for a deeper setback towards 1.28 and 1.24. The new season of the Brexit drama is kickstarting next week, the underlying economic remain the same and here...
The heavy selling is continuing in Cable today... What is scary is so far it has mostly been coming from the dollar side, we are yet to see the destruction via Brexit and the loss of market access. Technically, the underlying structure remains the same...meaning breaking 1.3109 today will develop 1.280, 1.266 and beyond very quickly.
The vote is kickstarting at 7:00pm GMT and I am still expecting another defeat here. What is necessary to track today is the severity of the defeat and the reaction of the DUP party. Odds of any deal passing today remain at 17%. The main issue for PM May is the slim majority she is barely holding onto. The deal will likely pass eventually, although we might...
Dollar catching a strong bid after yesterday's ECB. A very dovish Draghi sending shockwaves across financial markets, capital flight to the dollar continues via default as the only game in town. 1.31 was the level to track for the breakdown this week, yesterday we officially broke and now 1.24 is in the scope. For today's NFP we are expecting an inline report,...
Here we have an update to the Cable chart. The UK going back to the 1600’s as odds of another vote on PM May’s deal in the House of Commons this week are very low. For a house of “Commons” they are certainly lacking “common sense”. ... The rules are that two votes on the same motion are not permitted during the same parliamentary year. This means PM May will...
The EU offering a very short unconditional extension of the Brexit deadline as expected with the possibility of an extension till 22nd May if the House of Commons pass the WA before that. If the House of Commons rejects PM MAY’s deal, the UK will either leave on 12th April or need to come up with an alternative way forward for the EU Council to consider...
A "dovish" surprise from the Fed yesterday ...but does it really matter? Well the removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes.History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming...
Brexit remains a deer in the headlights. Warning signals from Junker over the weekend that their patience will not last forever. For those who are tracking our timeline we are here: 1st April 2019 “Indicative Votes (final)” As expected last week the "meaningful vote 3" failed to find support and we are running the clock down into extra time...as things stand we...
A few updates on the Brexit front for those following politics in the UK … none of the options gaining support from a majority (as anticipated) in the House yesterday meaning we are in the same bizarre situation. What is becoming increasingly clear over the past few weeks especially is that the Brexiteers are becoming afraid of losing Brexit altogether and their...
Here we can see the market has approached key support. The timing of this event with the (mostly) priced RBNZ cut allowed a good opportunity for some profit taking to be completed. We traded this entire swing live here on tradingview (see attached charts to dig deeper in the archives) and bought the exhaustion at 0.654. This area was an ABC target inside a...
The 4th wave in this pattern would usually not retrace as much as 50% which on this chart was 2.55%. The break above here is sending a loud message that sentiment is changing and increases the possibility of having put a more meaningful floor in March. The rise since March is impulsive in nature and this underpins the potential for a move higher in yields. As...
Here I am tracking a break of the 161.8% extension (6,213) which will unlock the highs if taken. We are currently sitting in the third wave since the impulsive bounce in December 2018, this move is already confirmed to be impulsive in nature and taking the last soft resistance at 6,213 will unlock the previous highs from wave . The upside is completely open if...