After liquidating my 175 puts yesterday, as described in the linked idea,
I am shorting it again via 3/12 120 puts. My bet will win if it has another run down next week.
As a reminder, I don't do Yolo's, so my strategy assumes that I am going to be wrong and lose money most of the time.
I am careful with the size of my bets and this one is no exception.
I like CAR, primarily for its volatility. I am surprised to see that it was so resilient so far.
I mean, the rental car business got hammered last year and this stock is fully recovered and then some.
So, if everything in the economy gets rosy, it's kind of priced in already.
I am making a short bet with 3/19 50 puts.
By the way, I don't do YOLOs or other stuff...
I was looking for overvalued companies a couple of days ago. KMX became a candidate due to its high debt and high multiples.
So, I staged an order, thinking I will review it one more time in the morning. But I forgot all about it and it got executed.
So, I am short KMX now. Looking at the chart looks like next week will tell if it was a lucky accident or not so...
Similar to my approach with SLV that is linked, I opened a long position in CXW, hedged by 3/19 7 puts.
CXW is low volatility, which means options are cheap. So:
1) If it breaks free through resistance, I make money on the long stock, lose my hedge, but I dont care, bc the hedge is cheap.
2) If it bounces down sharply because of the market sell-off, my hedge will...
I covered my shorts on NVX once 150 was reached. See my linked idea.
I did this trade with puts. Which were mostly crazy expensive at the time, but I was able to get 175 3/05 Puts for about $1.50 a couple of weeks ago.
I sold them today for an average price of 20.5, which gives this trade a 14x result.
Looking at the chart and at fundamentals, I will be looking...
I like SLV, I think it is a good inflation hedge that has a history of having sudden bullish movements.
But it's not at historical lows either and everything is possible. So, here is my trade:
1) Long SLV
2) Puts Strike 20 Jul 18
Such put protection is usually expensive. But looking at options prices, EVERYONE thinks SLV will only go up. This means that out of...
I shorted ABNB @213 based on fundamentals. The company makes no money, trades with crazy multiples, and has negative cash flow. Given that the market was getting shaky this is exactly the fragility I was looking for in my short. Just by pure luck, it turned out to the top (so far). Looking at the chart now, I also get some inspiration from the technical side....