sedemmler

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About me Small long/short global equities hedge fund portfolio manager.
Joined USA SEDemmler
Markets Allocation
19 % forex 2 % stocks 79 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
NZDJPY 12% | 6 AUDJPY 12% | 6 USDCHF 8% | 4 GBPCHF 6% | 3
sedemmler sedemmler AUDJPY, D,
AUDJPY: AUD/JPY Short
14 0 0
AUDJPY, D
AUD/JPY Short

Divergence trade here. Stops at 87.35 or so, looking for at least a test of the up channel, which is around 86.20, at the moment. A 80 win/ 40 loss trades, which satistfies our goal of never falling below a 2:1 R:R ratio.

sedemmler sedemmler EURJPY, D, Short ,
EURJPY: eur/jpy decision
15 0 1
EURJPY, D Short
eur/jpy decision

No decision here. Just for my reference.

sedemmler sedemmler EURCAD, D, Short ,
EURCAD:  eur/cad short
14 0 1
EURCAD, D Short
eur/cad short

November has been very strong for the Canadian dollar over the past ten years. The macro market is nuts currently, and Poloz/the BoC may be forced to ease more in the future but for now, this looks like a break to the downside.

sedemmler sedemmler GBPCHF, 60, Long ,
GBPCHF: GBP/CHF Long
17 0 0
GBPCHF, 60 Long
GBP/CHF Long

In the chart.

sedemmler sedemmler NZDJPY, D,
NZDJPY: One of these NZD/JPY levels must die
9 0 0
NZDJPY, D
One of these NZD/JPY levels must die

RBNZ has hinted at an easier monetary stance; Bloomberg carried a story today suggesting the BOJ is content for now with their monetary stance, which would likely be expressed in the market as Yen strength and Kiwi weakness. Trends are trends, though. One of these levels must die.

sedemmler sedemmler NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: NZD/USD Short
28 1 2
NZDUSD, D Short
NZD/USD Short

Wait for the blowout tomorrow from GDP and FOMC, then, let the RBNZ's Stevens and an improving second American quarter sink this pair.

sedemmler sedemmler GBPJPY, D,
GBPJPY: GBP/JPY -- Longer Term View
30 0 0
GBPJPY, D
GBP/JPY -- Longer Term View

In August of 2014 the pair broke out to the topside. Since late December we are in what I usually call on shorter timeframe's "buyer's remorse," although, it is harder to apply that to a timeframe like this because of macroeconomic trends and unforeseen geopolitical risks. However, the British elections are getting closer to completion, which should help alleviate ...

sedemmler sedemmler NUVA, D, Long ,
NUVA: Buy NUVA
13 0 0
NUVA, D Long
Buy NUVA

Broken range + hot healthcare sector + across the board upgrades + positive earnings outlook = buy NUVA

sedemmler sedemmler USDCAD, D, Long ,
USDCAD: A short term move against a longer-term play
41 0 1
USDCAD, D Long
A short term move against a longer-term play

If you're inclined to take calculated shots against what looks to be a strong longer-term move, then I've got a chart for you. USD/CAD is oversold according to the RSI on every time frame from 15m up to the Daily. There's bullish convergence here on the daily chart as well. Also, it seems the pair just broke a weak range to the bottom. I like shorting the pair ...

sedemmler sedemmler GEO, D, Long ,
GEO: Go to Prison with Geo Group
50 1 2
GEO, D Long
Go to Prison with Geo Group

Geo Group recently touched a multi-year bottom of $31.00. Following that they announced the reopening of a250 bed facility in California and a dividend of .57/q. The aggregate analyst target is $41.00. I am a little more conservative. They are one of the bigger names in the for-profit American prison game and have begun to snag market share in South Africa and a ...

sedemmler sedemmler CADJPY, D, Long ,
CADJPY: CAD/JPY
39 3 1
CADJPY, D Long
CAD/JPY

Rationale in the chart. *Risky play. Closed for a profit at the stated profit-target.

sedemmler sedemmler TRYJPY, 240,
TRYJPY: TRY/JPY
56 0 0
TRYJPY, 240
TRY/JPY

This isn't a trade call. It's me seeking out public opinion. I've never traded the Lira, so I'd love to hear from some of you who have experience with it.

sedemmler sedemmler AUDNZD, D,
AUDNZD: AUDNZD: The day of reckoning?
86 2 0
AUDNZD, D
AUDNZD: The day of reckoning?

In the chart.

sedemmler sedemmler USDCHF, 240, Long ,
USDCHF: A Usd/Chf long in the making
58 0 0
USDCHF, 240 Long
A Usd/Chf long in the making

My favorite reversal/bounce set up: convergence with volume momentum heading to the upside. At the beginning of the week I suggested this pair, and it's look like a non-starter so far, but the set up is there and with the SNB always watching a play from around .8850 here with an s/l at .8800 and t/p at (at least?) .9000 seems ripe.

sedemmler sedemmler NZDJPY, D,
NZDJPY: nzd/jpy
57 3 0
NZDJPY, D
nzd/jpy

Keeping an eye on potential consolidation.

sedemmler sedemmler AUDJPY, D, Short ,
AUDJPY: Aud/Jpy
80 9 0
AUDJPY, D Short
Aud/Jpy

Searching for ideas here. What do you think of this one?

sedemmler sedemmler EURJPY, 240, Long ,
EURJPY: EURJPY Long
50 0 0
EURJPY, 240 Long
EURJPY Long

Rationale in the chart.

sedemmler sedemmler USDCHF, 240, Long ,
USDCHF: Long Dollar Versus Swissie
120 2 1
USDCHF, 240 Long
Long Dollar Versus Swissie

Rationale is in the chart. *Update: You can ignore that rationale in the chart. This one was wrong, wrong, wrong. Mostly due to the situation in Ukraine causing a sustained flight to the CHF safe haven.

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CL1!
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
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AUDUSD
Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
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EURUSD
Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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CLU2013
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
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USDJPY
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
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