Maybe not the most popular trade idea given what is occurring with Turkey geopolitically, but a good set up nonetheless.
Been in a downtrend with multiple waves, and we hit a support/flip zone which can be seen by going further back or on the daily chart.
A double bottom indicates a possible exhaustion of the trend as no new lower lows have been made.
1h: Awaiting a break below the consolidation for Bearish continuation.
Turkey has been under pressure from Trump and it seems that the economy will not recover anytime soon.
Note: The currency have been in consolidation for the past 6 months which was a retracement from the sharp down movement from August 2018.
For now we wait. Although we have ourselves something like an ascending triangle, still, we need a confirmation break through one of the highlighted areas, before examining a further directional move.
The chart is straight forward.
Please see the chart for levels, targets and the scenarios.
Don't forget your stop-loss
Monthly downtrend, reaching all time low
Weekly downtrend, reaches supply in control. Supply in control tested once before, most probably will penetrate deeper this time round
Daily downtrend, to wait for retracement and short to next demand zone
The US-Turkey political tensions are on a rise again.
The TRY is getting hit today and it might be one of those crazy Friday's again, where certain pairs might just move one way and that's it.
For now, we are targeting the 19.45 support area, which may hold the pair initially, but then we will have to re-evaluate everything again, as TRYJPY might...
The pair seems to be getting into a squeeze. For now, we wait until wee see a clear break through one of the sides of the triangle.
But for a better confirmation of the upside and the downside, please see the chart for the potential breakout levels.
Don't forget your stop-loss.
Hypothesis: Supercycle year time frame is downtrend
Wave 3 Supercycle still in progress
Wave 3 Daily should be in progress till end of March or beginning April
Wave 5 of Wave 3 would complete the cycle.
After this supercycle 3, wave 4 shall commence bull.