sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

VIX has remained around 20 long time seen in many years. Last couple of days it held and based. The recent gap down is now filled, providing a near term base around 20.30 (remains stop for going long on Vol). Target remains towards 26 currently around 22.4. Pack full for puts best way to go long Vol.

sreebhashyam

Dow failed to cross 30 K in the back drop of most optimistic news flow, a la contrarian indicator. The move below 29800 signals short term down move towards 29100. Break there would suggest deeper correction towards the 26800 area. Stay short here and 29750 stop 30150 part profit 29100 balance around 27500.

sreebhashyam

Interesting pattern, holiday markets bears working overtime. The inverted ascending triangle (bearish pattern), horizontal base comes around 12730. Any break here would take move towards 12250 a 500 point move. Longs aside, shorts time to hold and initiative more on break outs. Alternatively buying deep out of the money puts or selling at the money calls.

sreebhashyam

Interesting pattern in #MARUITI, If we assume that we are in 5th Wave and most likely it would turn out to be a truncated one (View negates if close above 7300). Within this we have rare a) Busted Inverse Head and shoulders. b) Forming minor Head and shoulders within c) Major H and S both forming their right shoulder. Volume is increasing. Need-less to say...

sreebhashyam

If the premise is dollar in bigger down-trend then GBP offers better scope within the basket. A break of 1.35-1.37 would propel the pattern to bullish H and S pattern. Please note this pattern can turn into continuation which means a quick failure bringing back and moves completely the other way. Interesting to keep a tab on this one.

sreebhashyam

Today high and close are vital. If we have already printed days high (high probability) and close below 12930 there is strong probability of the pattern to complete the bearish H n S. Strategy 1) Hold shorts stop 13050+ and add to shorts break 12880 or buy deep out of the money puts. Negates close above 13050.

sreebhashyam

Nifty bounced from the range low. The close is almost half way back point of previous day candle. Close below the half way of outside day candle is encouraging to the bears. Sharp up move from the lows around Mid BB offers hope to the bulls. However, the bears have some more room to negotiate to the bulls while we stay below 13050 area. Sell with 13065 stop for 12880.

sreebhashyam

Short term hurdle 1.1950. However, the big picture suggest nearing end of long consolidation. Higher base and higher highs, increased momentum suggest that bulls to pierce the above resistance and head towards the 1.2150-1.2250 area. Longs can be initiated here and 1.1870 stops conservative 1.1825 aggressive 1.1740 for this move.

sreebhashyam

#NIFTYIT broke the triangle, however the up-thrust is so far failed one. Subsequent fall prints an evening star pattern. The momentum is not suggestive of strong up-move while the DX line is neutral at best. Move past 22000 is needed for bulls to re-capture. A break below 21000 bring bears into reckoning. Trade from short with stop 22115 (not able to suggest a...

sreebhashyam

Fall from grace or just a case of basket selling. So far this to be considered healthy correction to remove overbought conditions. Fall below 12930 triggers stop loss selling. This pushes us back to the 12830-12980 range as part of consolidation. A break 12780 bring bears into the picture. Suggest the range trading 12830-12950 with 50 points stop.

sreebhashyam

Despite the headline euphoria, the incremental market moves remain lack luster. The internal dynamics show negative divergence piling in most of the indicators. To negative we need much sharper up-move (which incrementally looks steep). Thus within the upward channel the price action fails to hit the top end while supported by the lower end. A short with stop...

sreebhashyam

One more gap opening. Yesterday Candle is hanging man and today needs to be seen how it closes. Despite new highs confirmation from other indicators suggests occasional profit taking if not a reversal. New base moves to 12830 from 12600. Intra-day 12930 to be supported. 12930-13080 with bias to buy dips to 12960 stop 12920. Yesterday both the buy and sell worked well.

sreebhashyam

#NIFTY Opens with gap; negates the deep downside view. However, the up-move is not to be vertical. A short here with stop 13010 for 12880 is workable. Alternatively long on dips to 12880 stop 12820 for move back to 12930 can be attempted.

sreebhashyam

The daily shooting star pattern still remains valid. Subsequent gap open gets filled in less than three days, confirming up move is not as strong. However, break of 3500 confirms inability to stay above the larger supply zone. Incremental longs look stale while Short (minor) can be initiated with stops 3608; a direct break 3500 activates the bear case. Sluggish...

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#NIFTY50 expected top materialized producing an outside day bar. The fall was sharper and deeper probing the 11830 near term base. This comes now as the supply zone. While we stay below 11850 attempt to 11680 is in order. Sell rise towards 11830 stops 11880 for 11695. Reckon still this as corrective move and not start of larger down move.

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USDCAD posts an inverted head and shoulder. Break of the neckline fails to produce the required thrust due to much stronger horizontal supply line. This should result softer tone providing an opportunity to go long. Buy corrective dips to 1.3090 stop 1.3045 for 1.3160-80. If the expected move does not unfold and neither the stop nor the take profit reaches...

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#NIFTY50 considerable profit taking, incremental moves not yielding positive results in confirmation indicators. Within the channel a Short side trade with stop 12990 (one can move higher above 130000 for move back to 12850 as the probable one. Just an intra-day trade.

sreebhashyam

With broad sectorial rotation, IT joins Pharma and FMCG for softer bias. Price action is near the minor trend line and break there targets the LBB. Further break below LBB 20500 would propel the bear case. RR with 0.5% stop and 1% gain is favoured. Stay short.