thunderpips

thunderpips

US: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly...

thunderpips

Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

thunderpips

Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

thunderpips

The BoE's Policy Implications One noteworthy factor contributing to this optimistic outlook is the BoE's latest meeting. Despite the upgraded forecasts for growth and inflation indicating a higher threshold for the incoming data to surpass, it also hints at the risk of more persistent inflation that might necessitate further monetary policy tightening. "While...

thunderpips

US: Debt ceiling talks, retail sales and jobless claims Despite inflation concerns easing somewhat last week, at least for the near term, markets still remain in a risk-off as debt ceiling talks linger. President Biden is expected to continue debt-ceiling talks with Congress leaders on Tuesday after last Friday’s meeting was postponed. The market is increasingly...

thunderpips

Japan: High expectations for Q1 GDP, with persistent inflation concerns Japan’s preliminary GDP for Q1 is due on Wednesday and will provide the latest insight into the health of the economy. Bloomberg consensus expects an improvement to 0.8% Q/Q annualized from 0.1% in Q4 when the economy narrowly avoided a recession. While a broader reopening of the economy in...

thunderpips

Australia: Jobs, wage data and RBA minutes on tap Australia’s labor market data is out on Thursday and expected to show the addition of 25k jobs in April after 53k jobs added in March, with the unemployment and participation rates seen steady at 3.5% and 66.7% respectively. Just a day ahead of this release, we also get the Q1 wage price index which could be a...

thunderpips

UK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns...

thunderpips

UK: Labor data to keep Bank of England expectations hawkish The Bank of England has made it clear that the decision on June rate hike will be underpinned by the two sets of wage and inflation data out before the next meeting. The first of these unemployment and wage numbers will be out on Tuesday, with consensus expectations not suggesting any let up in concerns...

thunderpips

Japanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds...

thunderpips

Pound Sterling briefly dipped after the GDP data on Friday, but still found support on dips with GBP/USD around 1.2530 and GBP/EUR at 1.1475. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 1.2640 in an immediate response to the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. There was, however, a notable reversal later in the session as risk appetite...

thunderpips

Pound Sterling briefly dipped after the GDP data on Friday, but still found support on dips with GBP/USD around 1.2530 and GBP/EUR at 1.1475. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened to 1.2640 in an immediate response to the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. There was, however, a notable reversal later in the session as risk appetite...

thunderpips

An extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in...

thunderpips

Japanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds...

thunderpips

Japanese yen strength over time. While the yen underperformed during the global monetary tightening phase, in our view, the currency has scope to outperform later this year. We now believe the BoJ will take advantage of a tactical opportunity to further tweak its policy settings in Q4-2023 to further normalize the government bond market. Such a policy move adds...

thunderpips

An extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in...

thunderpips

An extended period of U.S. dollar depreciation is approaching. The greenback could be relatively stable in the near term, as some additional Fed tightening combined with the potential for mildly unsettled markets could provide temporary support for the greenback. However, we expect the U.S. currency to come under pressure as aggressive Fed easing starts in...

thunderpips

Monetary Policy: A Hawkish Stance? The BoE's impending monetary policy decision is a critical factor underpinning Sterling's performance. The analysts' consensus is that the BoE will adopt a hawkish stance, with a 25 basis point hike in the bank rate. This move would bring the bank rate to 4.50%, in line with market expectations. "We expect the BoE to hike...