Interesting how the long-term moving averages correlated with LL (Lowest Low) and LH (Lowest High) on the Gartley Pattern. At the 2900 Level, the 50 day moving average (MA) and the 500 day MA are nearly on top of each other. When trend line meet (pile up), does this signal resistance, or reversal patterns. Obviously, we drop down one or two ranges, then...
Up 3.68 in eight years. Closest Fibonacci number is 3.168, which is close to the 2400 level. No 20% drops in eight years. One 16% drop. Four 10% drops. Aren't these numbers abnormal for the stock market over the past 100 years? Isn't Uber, Facebook, Amazon and Google awesome. Enterprise Level Cloud technology saved the day. Yeah.
Just my thoughts. Bull then Bear over the next two years. Extremely difficult to estimate the top and the bottoms. But the Fib people are saying anywhere from 2500 to 3600 for a high, and then a low of equal size, or not. A lot depends on earnings, international growth models (EU and China), tax policies, energy costs and geo-politicals (wars). Some of these...
We appear to be in a wave 3. Direction is up. My concern is that valuations are high (average PE for SPX 500 is 17). When do valuations over-ride Elliot Wave? At some point valuations must be an upper constraint (resistance) to Elliot Wave. Anyone with at least 10 years of market trading experience, who can answer ... Thanks
Elliot Wave Noob. Think we are in Wave 5 (the sucker wave up). Wave 3 is shortest - I know this violates official rules. If we are in wave 5, then top is around 2360. Comments. Again, learning wave theory. Trying to apply it, on paper.
After trianlge completes, look for another corrective structure. If the corrective structure is down, then this means the trend is still up. The corrective structure will probably last only 3 to 5 days.
I think the Market is over-valued. I'm on HOLD for this market, until I see prices return to reasonable values.
This is a one hour chart of SPX. The February line is acting as mild resistance. I would say we are moving into a range bound market, with lots of small triangles along the way. Range is 2150 to 2120. All the markets appear to be highly synchronized.
There is a lot of up and down action. Bears > Bull, IMHO. But it's a tough fight out there. We are at 52 week highs though, so if you believe in reversion to mean, we probably go down the next few weeks. How far, no one knows.