Up 3.68 in eight years. Closest Fibonacci number is 3.168, which is close to the 2400 level. No 20% drops in eight years. One 16% drop. Four 10% drops. Aren't these numbers abnormal for the stock market over the past 100 years? Isn't Uber, Facebook, Amazon and Google awesome. Enterprise Level Cloud technology saved the day. Yeah.
Just my thoughts. Bull then Bear over the next two years. Extremely difficult to estimate the top and the bottoms. But the Fib people are saying anywhere from 2500 to 3600 for a high, and then a low of equal size, or not. A lot depends on earnings, international growth models (EU and China), tax policies, energy costs and geo-politicals (wars). Some of these ...
We appear to be in a wave 3. Direction is up. My concern is that valuations are high (average PE for SPX 500 is 17). When do valuations over-ride Elliot Wave? At some point valuations must be an upper constraint (resistance) to Elliot Wave. Anyone with at least 10 years of market trading experience, who can answer ... Thanks
After trianlge completes, look for another corrective structure. If the corrective structure is down, then this means the trend is still up. The corrective structure will probably last only 3 to 5 days. I think the Market is over-valued. I'm on HOLD for this market, until I see prices return to reasonable values.