USD/MXN has been moving lower since April 2020 in a descending triangle. On a weekly timeframe, the pair found a zone of support between 19.5491 and 20.0338. USD/MXN bounced a number of times and tested the top downward sloping trendline of the channel, failing each time. As USD/MXN nears the apex of the triangle, is it ready to break lower? On May 30th, the...
The sell-off in cryptocurrencies has gotten worse.
FTT, the FTX token, is reeling after giving up as much as 88% of its value this week. Bitcoin dropped to a new low for the year after breaking the June low. Solana lost a third of its value today before bouncing off the lows. You get the picture.
Cryptos have sold off sharply over the past couple of days on...
The big rally on Friday in global stock indices, metals and oil were mostly attributed to optimism about China dropping its zero Covid policy. At the weekend, however, Chinese officials affirmed “unswervingly” the country’s strict stance on Covid. This should have been negative for risk assets. And although that’s how it proved first thing at the Asian open, as...
Silver, copper and other metals surged higher today, as the dollar fell despite a strong US jobs report.
There’s been a lot of talk that China is – finally – poised to exit its strict Covid Zero policy, a move that could kick start the slumping economy and underpin its stocks and currency. That’s how the markets have behaved today, as shares in Hong Kong and...
The Nasdaq broke back below the June low and support around the 10890 to 11036 area, after the rebound we saw in October faded before plunging on the back of a very hawkish Powell on Wednesday.
This is a bearish development, which strongly suggests we might see a new low on the year beneath the October low at 10432.
After bouncing off their worst levels earlier,...
The ECB meets this week and is widely expected to increase rates by 75bps. With CPI at 10%, will the central bank indicate that it is willing to hike further going forward?
EUR/USD broke above the top downward sloping trendline of the channel today that the pair has been in since mid-February. If the pair moves above parity, the first resistance level is the...
Gold has turned lower after the Fed Chair was more hawkish than the FOMC statement suggested. The US dollar recovered, while bond yields revisited their earlier highs. Stock indices slumped to fresh lows on the day.
Overall, the Fed has given us hints that it may reduce the pace of rate hikes from December, but the hawkish comments from Powell means there's...
Gold has been unable to rebound much from its recent lows as investors remain sceptical about the Fed potentially pivoting to a more dovish stance on Wednesday – something which the equity markets evidently believe might happen, given the large rally we saw on Friday.
Before discussing the Fed further, let’s not forget that China’s equity market is slumping, and...
The Dow has raced ahead of the other US indices in this rebound and it has reached the 200-day moving average.
If this is still a bear trend, then we would expect the next leg of the down trend to start from around these levels.
Notice that the 200-day MA had capped the previous rallies earlier in the year.
Will history repeat itself?
July 5th was the last time that EUR/CHF traded at 1.0000. The pair traded lower in an orderly channel until the pair broke above it on August 29th near 0.9629. EUR/CHF then hugged the top trendline of the channel, while still moving lower, making a local low at 0.9409. Since then, the pair has been moving higher in a flag formation. On October 13th, EUR/CHF...
The S&P 500 has rallied along with other global indices in what is going to be the biggest week for earnings. We have a few central bank meetings to come too. But I just wanted to highlight something more technical in this report, which this - the failed breakout attempts.
If you look at what's been happening in this bear market, we are seeing continued failures...
The Nasdaq and other US indices might be a tad higher, but stocks are not out of the woods yet as yields continue to press higher with the US 10-year comfortably above 4% now.
At the time of writing, the Nasdaq was testing resistance around 11250, where it also met the 21-day exponential moving average. This average has capped the gains on most occasions...
This is a weekly chart of Gold.
During the first week of August 2020, XAU/USD made an all-time high of 2075.11. During the week of March 7th, 2022, XAU/USD came within a few dollars of reaching that peak again, forming a double top.
The target for a double top is the height between the 2 peaks of the top, added to the breakdown point. In this case, it is...
Here's an hourly chart of the Aussie.
The AUD/USD has struggled owing to the selling of metals, yuan and Chinese stocks.
What happens in China is important to Australia because of their close trade links. China buys much of Australia's exports of things such as iron ore and copper.
With concerns growing over China's economic health, demand for Australian...
The USD/CNH is definitely worth watching as the recession narrative comes back to the forefront of investors' minds.
The renewed weakness in the yuan has been mirrored in the price action of things like copper and China's stock market, which fell overnight despite US and European indices rallying.
Fears over global growth intensified after China decided to...
Today saw silver rally in excess of 3% on no major news, finding support along with other financial markets that had become under pressure.
Of course, it is not the first time in this bear trend that we have seen such sharp moves higher, only for the bulls to then surrender and bears to take charge and drive prices to new lows. This coulf happen again, as...
Another day, another downward move for assets that tend to move inversely with bond yields. Gold, silver, Nasdaq - you name it. US 10-year bond yields bounced back to climb north of 4% on Friday.
After everything bounced back in a short-covering rally in the aftermath of a hotter US CPI inflation report on Thursday, gold still closed the session lower. That was a...
After yesterday’s sell-off, European markets bounced back, lifting US futures with them, ahead of the publication of the US CPI report. The recovery is potentially due to short-covering, but it may also have something to do with UK bond yields coming off the boil a little. There’s some speculation that the Bank of England will be forced to extend its October 14...
