timwest
Short

AAPL Downtrend Continues - Here's what happened last time

NASDAQ:AAPL   APPLE INC
1479 10 24
AAPL             has trended very well using long term charts and this is a unique time frame that you can create here at TradingView to give something a "look" that no one else has. What if you group bars into 3-days at a time? What would the chart look like?

What I am pointing out here is an indicator called Range Movement (RgMov) that whenever it hits a 44-bar high it means the trend is up and when it hits a 44-bar low it means the trend is down. Simple as that.

I have plotted the signals, which are only a few going back to 2010. You can see that all three of the signals were correct because the chart of AAPL             tends to "trend" and when it goes down, it continues down and when it goes up, it tends to go up a lot. Many thousands of millionaires have been created with AAPL             stock going up so much in the last 10-15 years. But that's besides the point.

What I did also was replicate what happened after the last sell signal to show what AAPL             shares did and paste it onto the start date of the current "downtrend" signal. In the last signal AAPL             fell an additional 30%. The current signal has AAPL             down just about 5% and it fell 20% to the August low.

Time will tell, but I felt this was worth your time to review and see what I can create with TradingView software and a creative eye.

Regards,

Tim

Short 111.70 last - 120 stop - 86 target in 6 months

October 12, 2015 1:25PM EST
Comment: Downtrend is well played out at this point. The key indicator "RgMov" is not confirming this decline in price though, so it is looking increasingly as if AAPL is going to stop declining and set up a buy signal. Time will tell. For now, AAPL is in a downtrend and it is a successful downtrend so far.
Comment: Correction - "RgMov" is at a new low and confirming the downtrend. Apologies. In the future, I would hope that the indicators would update also when you hit "Play", but then no one would need to subscribe to chart packages.
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Hi Tim, long time follower here. thanks for the analysis
I did a rough fib retracement on the weekly and see both past low and current low are at 50% retrace level. Also, the forward PE are both around 10 at these two lows. Not sure if this time aapl will hold and decline more to the level you anticipated.

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TY for posting this Tim. You always post great material!
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80 area sound just right
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agreed ,AAPL should be trading below $100 very soon. the latest iPhone sale number are quite disappointing, but that's is normal, i dont see people with last year iPhone, upgrading to a new one until the 8 or 8s.
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If AAPL gets to $80 it will take the market with it.
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JamesBrown PRO Crinklebine
Absolutely agree.

The biggest tech stock will carry the market with it.
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You can copy and paste parts of charts with Tradingview quite easily? This is very cool.
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timwest PRO Crinklebine
Yes. There is a tool on the left side of the chart that is called "Bars Pattern". After you click on it, then you click the starting point and then the ending point of the pattern you want to copy. It will then be an object that you can grab and move, flip and mirror too.
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Thanks Tim, you're one of the best of Tradingview.
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timwest PRO Crinklebine
Thanks Dunster. Very nice of you to say.
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