AAPL. Apple may be in trouble. This is not a drill
All traders and investors who are interested in the US market are surely aware of the whirlpool in which Apple got since the beginning of the year. Very few good news and lots of bad news for the company.
The most recent ones were a downgrade of a target price by GolmanSachs and Elon Musk predicting Apple has already missed the train of the car business. Here, obviously, we can object that GS kept a "Buy" recommendation and Musk surely thinks on its Tesla more than on Apple.
But falling iPhone sales and a stucking business model are indeed serious problems. And these can become market´s serious problems as Apple is one of the most expensive companies in the world. Some analysts have already compared Apple to Microsoft and IBM. IBM was a strong, dynamic company which had a healthy business. And one day the sold their PC unit to the chinese and dedicated exclusively to the IT services and server production. Regarding to Microsoft, after Vista OS failure everybody expected that Win 7 would be a new, highly innovative product that will take a PC to new level. Windows 7 is a good OS but not even close to the expectations. Microsoft is basically a monopolist on the OS market, therefore they could easily pass through the storm. Apple are by far not monopolists on their market.
You may probably got my point regarding the number 7 as well: 7th model of the iPhone will be announced in autumn. And probably we will also know by then if the news Nikkei agency published are certain: Apple may start renewing their iPhones every 3 years from now moving on.
If iPhone 7 fails to deliver a strong innovation experience to the customers and the company switches their iPhone update cycle without delivering anything on exchange, the beginning of the end may be officially declared this autumn.
If we check the tehcnicals, I´d say Apple is on a clear downtrend now and correction waves from my EW model can target as far as 56 USD per share before the end of 2016. If this scenario gets to reality, this will obviously impact NASDAQ and SPX500 markets that will surely get into a drastical correction scenario.
As a conclusion, Apple is a company to watch in the next 3 months as the future of the market can also be there.
The most recent ones were a downgrade of a target price by GolmanSachs and Elon Musk predicting Apple has already missed the train of the car business. Here, obviously, we can object that GS kept a "Buy" recommendation and Musk surely thinks on its Tesla more than on Apple.
But falling iPhone sales and a stucking business model are indeed serious problems. And these can become market´s serious problems as Apple is one of the most expensive companies in the world. Some analysts have already compared Apple to Microsoft and IBM. IBM was a strong, dynamic company which had a healthy business. And one day the sold their PC unit to the chinese and dedicated exclusively to the IT services and server production. Regarding to Microsoft, after Vista OS failure everybody expected that Win 7 would be a new, highly innovative product that will take a PC to new level. Windows 7 is a good OS but not even close to the expectations. Microsoft is basically a monopolist on the OS market, therefore they could easily pass through the storm. Apple are by far not monopolists on their market.
You may probably got my point regarding the number 7 as well: 7th model of the iPhone will be announced in autumn. And probably we will also know by then if the news Nikkei agency published are certain: Apple may start renewing their iPhones every 3 years from now moving on.
If iPhone 7 fails to deliver a strong innovation experience to the customers and the company switches their iPhone update cycle without delivering anything on exchange, the beginning of the end may be officially declared this autumn.
If we check the tehcnicals, I´d say Apple is on a clear downtrend now and correction waves from my EW model can target as far as 56 USD per share before the end of 2016. If this scenario gets to reality, this will obviously impact NASDAQ and SPX500 markets that will surely get into a drastical correction scenario.
As a conclusion, Apple is a company to watch in the next 3 months as the future of the market can also be there.
Comment:
Don´t be misguided by Apple´s Q2 report, just check the chart below =)
Comment:
iPhone 7 release is in 2 days. And every time a new iPhone is released, Apple stock is rallying. This year will not be an exception. And, for what it´s worth, I don´t think this is the last rally we see from Apple before a general decline.
For now, let´s enjoy the show! (Chart below)
For now, let´s enjoy the show! (Chart below)
Comment:
Possible ending diagonal in Wave 5
Comment:
Trade closed: stop reached:
Double-top area
Comment:
Sorry, that was DB. Here is Apple
Please, follow your strategy! Always!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!