In my opinion; ACB is no longer trading like a speculative market, but now as a market. As we appear to have a great deal of supply, suppliers are reporting how they can easily meet supply targets. Prices are set by the government, and supply chains are now emerging. I am expecting/predicting prices to keep slipping until August.
The days of 15% moves are gone, but we are seeing consistent days of 3% moves and over 3 or 4 days, that's an easy 9%-12% on a week. I can live with that.
I have also noted, that possibly we have some whales shorting this market. The other day I was watching order flow, I noticed some large buying orders in higher price areas, from a perspective, this would be whales taking profit on the big shorts.
A tip for risk management; Never trade with capital you cant afford to lose. Once you place a trade, assume it to be gone. If you can't live with that, then you shouldn't be trading with that much capital. Simple enough.
This is not financial advice, but purely my opinion and shared thoughts.
Then I will be looking for a strong bullish rally in the morning session to get involved.
We need to see some momentum (and volume) from the bulls for a valid entry.
Opinion: This new quarter should be interesting. Trade wars and bearish forces in the market vs ramping up for legalization in Aug-Sep.
I use a self-developed value channel theory, drawn from key levels low to high. I sometimes us the pitchfork tool, but not in the traditional sense, just a guide or overlay. I use a modified trend channel, blended with two forces theory, seeking to find the median price level in a channel. From that, I expand it to find key Support and Resistance zones, or areas that traders like to trade (fair price zones). I do pay attention to waves but only to find the context to the current price action. It may seem a bit odd, it has been working very well to determine high probability swing points. Actually, it's very simple and remarkably accurate.