Value area under 10.00

I am watching the two forces bullish and bearish on this one. As you can see on the daily, we have very defined channel zones. Price is respecting these areas. The pot market is mostly bearish , with decent retracements aka bullish pullbacks (from bearish bias perspective). These are tradeable (I trade them as a counter-trend trade) and typically I see, 1.50 to 2.00 movements. A high probability tradeable pattern has emerged. Currently, I am watching for price to slip back to the 10.00 area of interest.

In my opinion; ACB is no longer trading like a speculative market, but now as a supply and demand market. As we appear to have a great deal of supply, suppliers are reporting how they can easily meet supply targets. Prices are set by the government, and supply chains are now emerging. I am expecting/predicting prices to keep slipping until August.

The days of 15% moves are gone, but we are seeing consistent days of 3% moves and over 3 or 4 days, that's an easy 9%-12% on a bullish week. I can live with that.

I have also noted, that possibly we have some whales shorting this market. The other day I was watching order flow, I noticed some large buying orders in higher price areas, from a bearish perspective, this would be whales taking profit on the big shorts.

A tip for risk management; Never trade with capital you cant afford to lose. Once you place a trade, assume it to be gone. If you can't live with that, then you shouldn't be trading with that much capital. Simple enough.

This is not financial advice, but purely my opinion and shared thoughts.

Comment: We are near strong support and an area of interest to myself. I will be watching for a entry zone and setup near 9.66 area.
Comment: If we see another retest of 9.53-6.88 zone.
Then I will be looking for a strong bullish rally in the morning session to get involved.
Comment: This small rally didn't seem to have any conviction behind it, perhaps just the bears selling off the large shorts.
We need to see some momentum (and volume) from the bulls for a valid entry.
Comment: Them bears don't want to give up just yet. We may see some consolidation in the 8.90-9.90 range.

Opinion: This new quarter should be interesting. Trade wars and bearish forces in the market vs ramping up for legalization in Aug-Sep.
Comment: Will we break the lower trend channel zone this week?
Comment: Note: If you think I have drawn my lines incorrectly, don't worry, It's not what you think.
I use a self-developed value channel theory, drawn from key levels low to high. I sometimes us the pitchfork tool, but not in the traditional sense, just a guide or overlay. I use a modified trend channel, blended with two forces theory, seeking to find the median price level in a channel. From that, I expand it to find key Support and Resistance zones, or areas that traders like to trade (fair price zones). I do pay attention to waves but only to find the context to the current price action. It may seem a bit odd, it has been working very well to determine high probability swing points. Actually, it's very simple and remarkably accurate.
Comment: Still being patient, looking for an entry in the 7.50 range.
Comment: I expect more downside before August, so 7.50 may be still far to high to enter, I will need to see strong bullish pressure (aka volume) to trigger a buy.
I personally trade Acb and I this is a very nice analysis of the stock. Nice job!
AshYo AshYo
@AshYo, I think* this...
@AshYo, Thank you for the kind words. Feel free to add your thoughts.
Very nice write up, thank you.
@nathan.c, Thank you.