Although it was slow, we finally did reach 1.00 as forecast in my prior ideas. For the past couple of days we have forming a descending triangle and testing support at 1.00. The apex of the triangle is still a few days away (around March 20). Between now and then we should see lower highs (under the 1.11 fib) and more tests of 1.00. This period is a good opportunity for scalping while preparing a short entry point for the next move down.
The 3 Day chart has been of particular interest as indicators have been coming down towards level 50. With these indicators, when a candle closes when the green EMA is crossing level 50 while the Red RSI is under 80 or above 20, then it is likely that the price action will take us to the yellow dotted basis (20 interval MA).
With about 8 hours left in the current 3D candle, we can see that it is highly likely that this candle will close with green below 50 and RSI below 80. The basis in the next candle looks to be around 0.86. It is not mandatory that the price move exactly to the basis, but looking at previous 3D candles of Aug 19, 2020 and Dec 23, 2020 we can see that in similar situations we did wick to the basis line and below.
Unless there is a strong runup in price in the next 8 hours that allows the current 3D candle to close above 50, then we can expect in the Mar 17 to March 20 timeframe to break the current descending triangle and 1.00 support to the downside with 0.90 being a very likely target. We may see a wick to 0.80 or even 0.75 before any reversal, which may come around Mar 29 candle.
Good luck!
The 3 Day chart has been of particular interest as indicators have been coming down towards level 50. With these indicators, when a candle closes when the green EMA is crossing level 50 while the Red RSI is under 80 or above 20, then it is likely that the price action will take us to the yellow dotted basis (20 interval MA).
With about 8 hours left in the current 3D candle, we can see that it is highly likely that this candle will close with green below 50 and RSI below 80. The basis in the next candle looks to be around 0.86. It is not mandatory that the price move exactly to the basis, but looking at previous 3D candles of Aug 19, 2020 and Dec 23, 2020 we can see that in similar situations we did wick to the basis line and below.
Unless there is a strong runup in price in the next 8 hours that allows the current 3D candle to close above 50, then we can expect in the Mar 17 to March 20 timeframe to break the current descending triangle and 1.00 support to the downside with 0.90 being a very likely target. We may see a wick to 0.80 or even 0.75 before any reversal, which may come around Mar 29 candle.
Good luck!
Comment:
I updated analysis following the Coinbase breakout
Does mean the forecast in my post is invalidated? Probably not invalidated, but possibly delayed and the bottom of correction may not move as low.
We will need to wait to see the strength underlying this price action. If prices remain above 1.08, this could be an unlikely breakout above a descending triangle. We will also need to see where the candles close at the end of the day.
Keep in mind that we are still in a period of significant downward momentum that is not reversed by this single pump (see the 4D chart below). Downward momentum will likely continue for the next two weeks.
In fact, we could find that this pump exhausts latent upward momentum, allowing for an accelerated decline under 1.00.