Look To Short Albemarle (ALB) Stock If Price Falls Below 215

ALBES

Daily Timeframe Position

Albemarle (ALB) may be nearing the end of its uptrend since late March 2020. A long-term Trend Line from the valley in March moves upward against corresponding valleys signifying the uptrend (weekly timeframe). For the first time price has now dropped and closed below the trendline. Although it has closed below the Trend Line, and that may signal that it is not in an uptrend anymore, we have not yet confirmed that it is in a downtrend. To decipher this, we use the 1-2-3 trend change method.

1 - This is where the price has closed below the trendline
2 - There is a retracement and a retest of the high that fails
3 - A close below the closest valley to the breakout (However, this has not happened yet). If the price pushes past 215 and closes, then this is another signal that a downtrend is impending

Another short signal is the Double Top that has formed, which is compounded by strong selling (as you can see by the long shadows of the candles at the price range of 244). This Double Top has also been confirmed as we have a close below the valley between the two peaks (shown with the white dot).

Yet another signal is the Fibonacci retracement that shows a pullback at 50%.

We can see that price is hovering at a number of Support regions, including a Descending Triangle and Support at 215, which incidentally is also a round number. There is also Support Line formed for 215 from a smaller descending triangle to the left between September and October.

If the price breaks 215, we can most probably expect a sharp drop until resistance is reached at 185 provided by the Support line of the Broadening Formation. 185 is also coincidentally 15% away from the breakout price.

Placing your entry at 214 (past Support at 215) and taking profits at 185 will give you a 5.5 to 1, which is not bad at all. This is only if you place your stop relatively close to the Support that is keeping this price afloat, say at approximately 216/17. Consider taking profits rather at 194 just before the tiny bit of price congestion that appears in that Broadening Formation to the left. Price will most probably stall here and start to retrace, but you will be guaranteed a 3.5 to 1 . If done correctly, you can get out at this point, wait for the Fibonacci retracement at 62%, and short again if you see price is dropping further. If you are thinking of riding the downtrend, then placing your Stop loss at the 62% retracement from the valley peak when it starts to retrace is your best bet.