$GME - Here we go | Starting tomorrow or on March 6 ish.
The chart above is a composite chart of: AMC, GME, COIN, HOOD, CHPT, F, LUMN, GRAB, FINV, CHPT. 3 of these are in the XRT ETF but that doesn't matter too much. This basket is the "meme" basket and it's general use as i understand is as a source of liquidity since most of the stocks inside it are illiquid like GME, LUMN and maybe a few others. I don't think AMC is illiquid, it's in fact highly traded in the swaps world as a single name stock. GME has had 1/20'th of AMC's trading volume in swapps in 2022. In 2021 they were close-ish but that changed in November/December 2021.
My preferred way of seeing the composite meme basket it in Tradingview is to copy and paste this in my Symbols/Ticker List:
AMC+CHPT+COIN-DT+F-FINV+GME+GRAB+HOOD+LUMN
This is the best variation of the basket i've managed to make in my own opinion/world. You could simply just remove the minus symbols and make everything a + if you like and that generates a really nice liquidity rich looking chart that's also quite linear and good for selling spreads which is exactly what's been happening. I've found out that for this basket, in the last quarter, around $168 mil worth of spread swaps were sold. The date of effect or expiry ( i don't remember which) was Dec 7 this year which now explains the subsequent price drop in not just GME but this whole entire basket.
About GME and what might occur next week onwards:
Data on GME has turned bullish:
imgur.com/E3Dpvym
Data on SPY is turning bullish too:
imgur.com/kI9Cy0R
I believe SPY is going to retrace back to $405 within the next 15 days and with that obviously all other stocks are going to follow this oscilation and move up appropriately. This includes meme stonks just like the one we love to hate and hate to love GME.
Since i found the actual basket and was able to take my time to check it out and simplify what i see, basically i think i have the precise days of the price runs up. Since it's really close, i can tell with a lot of certainty now... It's going to start this week and will continue up to the 3'rd - 6'th of Jan (Max 9'th of Jan).
Me giving you this info isn't great as everyone i let people know the dates, everyone buys the heck out of this thing, brokers are forced to go short a share they're selling you and the price plummets, the borrow rate skyrockets and the "wen moon" date gets extended to a later date.
Seeing that people have already gone nuts on GME since Dec 23 and have forced the borrow rate up again, considering that most broker based retail traders including myself have been burned by holding short dated options and have sold them off last week, the price should start to rise back and above it's previous levels before the insane buying started.
Now if people go nuts again this could result in another muted run where people know where to buy and where to go short resulting in a very muted and quick GME run. Unfortunately there are no longer enough people that are willing to buy enough GME options for a Gamma Squeeze, that's completely out of the question and people buying 40 share lots instead of even 100 share lots aren't helping since they getting bought and grouped up by a wholesaler and lent out to others intra-day before finding other to sell their inventory to and not to mention the pennies retail is getting scalped on due to the wholesaler grouping the various orders and selling spread/lending/selling/buying at better or wider prices.
Anyway, point is, i think things happen next week. If the blue line i circled in the first pic i posted here continues to move up parabolically, we're golden and i'll know when this happens on Tuesday EOD which may already be late as i think things will start from that day, but ok... it might at least serve as some kind of confirmation.
Anyway, don't get to gree buying both shares and options... who am i kidding, do your thing. I have 438 calls $25c for next week so. Hoping to be a millionare so i can quit it all. Good luck and regards you highly regarded folk you.
Basic Analysis:
-I'm not going to add details in order to keep this simple for people. To that, i've simply drawn 3 date counting lines showing 3 x 140 day periods inside the RSI at the bottom of the chart. If for some reason you are unable to see these lines, please resize the RSI chart.
Basically, the cycles seem to be ~140 day long instead of 90 day or 60 day or 120 days as many other have tried theorizing including myself. At least that's the theory here unless i'm wrong, again.
It looks like a prerequisite for a GME/meme basket run is that the RSI has to be oversold or generally harshly treated near the weak or oversold area. As i said, not to go into details about other microcycles, i'll just be talking about the big cycles...
Now each time the RSI bottoms out on the chart above for the composite basket, 60 days later GME begins it's ~1w price run which is then followed by a market correction.
So, the next big GME price run either starts tomorrow onwards till Jan 3-9
Or it starts on March 6.
What cannot go wrong is buying at these levels since the entire basket's RSI is completely bottomed out and has spent it's time not only in RSI prison (weak spot) but also within the oversold area. Without the rest of the market moving down, it would be difficult to move the price of GME lower. At best it can be kept sideways, but that takes effort as well. The easiest thing for all sides is for the price to simply move up along with the rest of the market.
So yes. Either tomorrow for the next 10 days or in March on the 6'th ish.
You're definitely a highly regarded person if you've read this far down. Let me know down in the comments if you feel highly regarded.
Thanks
My preferred way of seeing the composite meme basket it in Tradingview is to copy and paste this in my Symbols/Ticker List:
AMC+CHPT+COIN-DT+F-FINV+GME+GRAB+HOOD+LUMN
This is the best variation of the basket i've managed to make in my own opinion/world. You could simply just remove the minus symbols and make everything a + if you like and that generates a really nice liquidity rich looking chart that's also quite linear and good for selling spreads which is exactly what's been happening. I've found out that for this basket, in the last quarter, around $168 mil worth of spread swaps were sold. The date of effect or expiry ( i don't remember which) was Dec 7 this year which now explains the subsequent price drop in not just GME but this whole entire basket.
About GME and what might occur next week onwards:
Data on GME has turned bullish:
imgur.com/E3Dpvym
Data on SPY is turning bullish too:
imgur.com/kI9Cy0R
I believe SPY is going to retrace back to $405 within the next 15 days and with that obviously all other stocks are going to follow this oscilation and move up appropriately. This includes meme stonks just like the one we love to hate and hate to love GME.
Since i found the actual basket and was able to take my time to check it out and simplify what i see, basically i think i have the precise days of the price runs up. Since it's really close, i can tell with a lot of certainty now... It's going to start this week and will continue up to the 3'rd - 6'th of Jan (Max 9'th of Jan).
Me giving you this info isn't great as everyone i let people know the dates, everyone buys the heck out of this thing, brokers are forced to go short a share they're selling you and the price plummets, the borrow rate skyrockets and the "wen moon" date gets extended to a later date.
Seeing that people have already gone nuts on GME since Dec 23 and have forced the borrow rate up again, considering that most broker based retail traders including myself have been burned by holding short dated options and have sold them off last week, the price should start to rise back and above it's previous levels before the insane buying started.
Now if people go nuts again this could result in another muted run where people know where to buy and where to go short resulting in a very muted and quick GME run. Unfortunately there are no longer enough people that are willing to buy enough GME options for a Gamma Squeeze, that's completely out of the question and people buying 40 share lots instead of even 100 share lots aren't helping since they getting bought and grouped up by a wholesaler and lent out to others intra-day before finding other to sell their inventory to and not to mention the pennies retail is getting scalped on due to the wholesaler grouping the various orders and selling spread/lending/selling/buying at better or wider prices.
Anyway, point is, i think things happen next week. If the blue line i circled in the first pic i posted here continues to move up parabolically, we're golden and i'll know when this happens on Tuesday EOD which may already be late as i think things will start from that day, but ok... it might at least serve as some kind of confirmation.
Anyway, don't get to gree buying both shares and options... who am i kidding, do your thing. I have 438 calls $25c for next week so. Hoping to be a millionare so i can quit it all. Good luck and regards you highly regarded folk you.
Basic Analysis:
-I'm not going to add details in order to keep this simple for people. To that, i've simply drawn 3 date counting lines showing 3 x 140 day periods inside the RSI at the bottom of the chart. If for some reason you are unable to see these lines, please resize the RSI chart.
Basically, the cycles seem to be ~140 day long instead of 90 day or 60 day or 120 days as many other have tried theorizing including myself. At least that's the theory here unless i'm wrong, again.
It looks like a prerequisite for a GME/meme basket run is that the RSI has to be oversold or generally harshly treated near the weak or oversold area. As i said, not to go into details about other microcycles, i'll just be talking about the big cycles...
Now each time the RSI bottoms out on the chart above for the composite basket, 60 days later GME begins it's ~1w price run which is then followed by a market correction.
So, the next big GME price run either starts tomorrow onwards till Jan 3-9
Or it starts on March 6.
What cannot go wrong is buying at these levels since the entire basket's RSI is completely bottomed out and has spent it's time not only in RSI prison (weak spot) but also within the oversold area. Without the rest of the market moving down, it would be difficult to move the price of GME lower. At best it can be kept sideways, but that takes effort as well. The easiest thing for all sides is for the price to simply move up along with the rest of the market.
So yes. Either tomorrow for the next 10 days or in March on the 6'th ish.
You're definitely a highly regarded person if you've read this far down. Let me know down in the comments if you feel highly regarded.
Thanks
Comment:
imgur.com/a/Xdr47Ui
The basket is VERY bullish and is continuing to become more and more bullish with each day that passes.
The rest of the market is in the same mode, although the sideways movement can be attributed to the buildup of shorts on SPY and closing of shorts on TQQQ which was extremely oversaturated with shorts since September. This means the move of shorts from TQQQ to SPY is resulting in this sideways movement. Unknown what happens after this migration of shorts is completed.
TLDR: Things are very very bullish right now. Price action is delayed but must start soon. The only thing that cancels this is "New Covid strain or Putin redoubles efforts in Ukraine type of world news" or something that affects a stock in the basket e.g like AMC announcing a conveniently timed dillution again.
The basket is VERY bullish and is continuing to become more and more bullish with each day that passes.
The rest of the market is in the same mode, although the sideways movement can be attributed to the buildup of shorts on SPY and closing of shorts on TQQQ which was extremely oversaturated with shorts since September. This means the move of shorts from TQQQ to SPY is resulting in this sideways movement. Unknown what happens after this migration of shorts is completed.
TLDR: Things are very very bullish right now. Price action is delayed but must start soon. The only thing that cancels this is "New Covid strain or Putin redoubles efforts in Ukraine type of world news" or something that affects a stock in the basket e.g like AMC announcing a conveniently timed dillution again.
Comment:
Checked yesterday's data. Turned even more bullish but by not a lot. Bullish regardless. Same for the rest of the market.
Let's see what next week will bring.
Let's see what next week will bring.
Comment:
I checked the latest data from Friday and i honestly can't read it well. I don't understand what the move is going to be for both the market and for the meme basket.
Everything's kinda neutral in a way that i can't tell whether it's going to go sideways, move up or move down. A bullish move would be for everything to move up sharply and it hasn't. It hasn't gone down either, nor sideways. It's kinda at around the same place.
Everything's kinda neutral in a way that i can't tell whether it's going to go sideways, move up or move down. A bullish move would be for everything to move up sharply and it hasn't. It hasn't gone down either, nor sideways. It's kinda at around the same place.
Comment:
Seems like all the stocks in this basket are moving today. Most are up between 2% - 4% premarket.
Comment:
The data finally moved nicely yesterday. We're still VERY bullish.
imgur.com/tXzKIFU
It's all looking similar to March 2022. I think this might be a big one. The move should start materializing really really soon despite the current ducky price action.
imgur.com/tXzKIFU
It's all looking similar to March 2022. I think this might be a big one. The move should start materializing really really soon despite the current ducky price action.
Comment:
I can't tell what SPY wants to do in the short term yet. The data on the general market like QQQ, TQQQ, SPY isn't very readable right now. The basket itself however is very very bullish right now.
Comment:
I'd say this confirms we're having a January run.
imgur.com/a/RcgFpLb
The market needs to not go tits up for the next 15 days and we're golden.
imgur.com/a/RcgFpLb
The market needs to not go tits up for the next 15 days and we're golden.
Comment:
Just be a bit careful as i don't know what the size of this run will be. Data indicates that this run may already be over in the next few days.
imgur.com/We9PwAT
See the resistance (red line) in the chart i attached here. Don't get your hopes up and if you do, be sure to make safe bets.
imgur.com/We9PwAT
See the resistance (red line) in the chart i attached here. Don't get your hopes up and if you do, be sure to make safe bets.
Comment:
WE GOOD. There's MORE up to come!!
imgur.com/4nlwH3h
Small pause on the basket which might make us stay at these levels for a bit.
imgur.com/P8E34Y1
The overall market is ALSO looking GREAT!
imgur.com/2Hf4pBS
We're good for a while longer. Fingers crossed on CPI today.
imgur.com/4nlwH3h
Small pause on the basket which might make us stay at these levels for a bit.
imgur.com/P8E34Y1
The overall market is ALSO looking GREAT!
imgur.com/2Hf4pBS
We're good for a while longer. Fingers crossed on CPI today.
Trade closed: target reached:
I'm exiting. The data has become neutral indicating that this pump may be ending soon or that maybe we're about to see the next leg up. I can't tell which one of the two is about to happen (I need to seee today's EOD data to verify and i'm not staying in for that).
Good luck to those who want to remain in.
Good luck to those who want to remain in.
Comment:
Good luck
imgur.com/a/xkY6mUA
imgur.com/a/xkY6mUA
Comment:
Last update to this post.
Yesterday's EOD data is out. GME has moved from being neutral\bearish to fully being bearish. Glad i got puts.
Yesterday's EOD data is out. GME has moved from being neutral\bearish to fully being bearish. Glad i got puts.
Comment:
Trade closed: stop reached:
Exit
Basically in those 2 occurences, the data became increasingly bullish as time went on just like now but no price increase occured straight away.
Instead while the data became more and more bullish, the stock & the market created a new bottom. Eventually 19 days after the data started turning bullish, the price eventually STARTEd going up and at around 33 days it peaked.
If the current data turning bullish is the same case as the above, then count 19 days from the 27'th of Dec e.g 16-17 Jan start of the price increase & ~30'th of Jan Max Price which at the moment can only max out at around $39.
I'm rolling my short dated stuff to early Feb to catch a move to $39. I wouldn't suggest you do the same. It's best to go for a date further out and a strike close to the money if you're playing with options.
If you're doing shares, anything you buy here is probably fine.