AMD - MORNING VIEW - BOTTOM OF NEW CHANNEL - JPMORGAN UPGRADE

0. Notes to follow;

Comment:

0. AMD down $2.00 in pre-market trading. Sitting at $48.50 support;

1. We are not surprised, but a little disappointed at the street's reaction here, as really, I do not think any earnings report IN THE WORLD would have satisfied the run we have had "in the short term".

2. That being said, many buyers must be thinking about our earnings report last time. We went down after that, then rallied with the rest of the semis, but much more, to where we are now. I think this was a great report, and there are so many products, launches, announcements, news, and great sentiment, as well as cheap Fed money, and momentum in semis which will continue;

3. This is temporary. We will be MUCH higher, like 40 percent, 6 months from now.

4. JPMorgan upgrades from $34 to $45. Also BNP Paribaw with a downgrade and $47 target.

5. So not much analyst movement on AMD, as they already gave their strong $50+ target, all the way up to $68 and $75.

6. Patience is the key here, wait a day or two, and start to buy shares back. That would be the Cramer advice. I would not be surprised to see Lisa Su on CNBC in the next day. Hang tight.

- drchelsea

Comment:

7. We suggested that you sell the $50 CALL on AMD as protection in the last post as well. This will be CRUSHED this morning, we are opening at $48.50 and the earnings report lays the roadmap for a strong year. The problem is that in the "short term" the momentum and volatility has been reduced and we will go higher, but up and down with news and such and the sector. So the OPTIONS were priced for a move of 18 percent, but the stock only moved 4 percent. These options will be worth maybe 60 percent of what they were yesterday, and protect us far greater than drop of the stock due to the IV flattening. This strategy into earnings isn't always profitable, but in this case, an 18 percent move shows IV that was really high, so the risk was that we open at $42 and the $5 we got on the option would not protect us for more than a 10 percent drop. So in this case, major winning strategy.

Here is the Math behind it:

How to profit off of Post Earnings Implied Volatility

quantcha.com/news/ho...ed-volatility-crush/

Comment:

CNBC, "We are on the brink. What did the market do during the cold war? When all was about to collapsed. It rallied."

Comment:

CNBC, you can tell the people that are connected to Cramer/Kudlow, the smug ones that know the market direction. The Fed is up today, and up we go again. More Repo Work, and QE to keep the Davos crowd happy.

Comment:

I would not be surprised that the Coronavirus is the impetus for German Stimulus. Then we go up 20 percent in the market. This virus was convenient. China Only, Chinese Economy effected most, impeachment distraction, U.S. Pharma benefit, Fed definitely on sidelines forever, where in the world will INFLATION COME FROM NOW? If we have a recession, we do it with negative rates. Not 18 percent like the other times. Also, German stimulus incoming, then we GO MUCH HIGHER. Stimulus is the word of the year now. And no inflation in sight.

Comment:

Fed on tap, hold tight...

Comment:

UPGRADES:

As stated yesterday, during the live update, the analysts will come to defend...

AMD price target raised to $62 from $56 at BofA

Comment:

AMD price target raised to $44 from $40 at Goldman Sachs

Comment:

Just hit the wires...

Comment:

Bank of America was the FIRST allowed to ask Lisa Su questions on the CALL yesterday. Nice upgrades and that goes to their client portfolios.

Comment:

So there you go. Lisa Su live on Squawk Box. You heard it from us BEFORE, they announced it.

Comment:

" I would not be surprised to see Lisa Su on CNBC in the next day. Hang tight."

Comment:

We are currently on the BID, $47.25, $47.11, $46.95, looking for a bargain here. Buy time.

Comment:

We are buying at points of support, all day long....

Comment:

$46.45, and $46.25, both nice entry points....

Comment:

This is like X-mas. Come back in a few weeks after Fake Sars is over, and see how you did...

Comment:

$46.11 was the bonus SUPPORT of the day.

We bought all the way down, and used call options for the last part to really KILL it for the rebound!

Nice day really if you think about it, and AMD $47.25 at 2:06EST.

Therefore, every single purchase we made today, IS PROFITABLE.

AMD IS A BUY THE DIP STOCK, AND THIS IS A LONG GAMMA / BUY THE DIP MARKET.

SEE YOU TOMORROW.

Trade active:

Had to come back, hitting ATH and breakout at $47.50.

This baby won't quit. $50+ coming soon if we close above $47.50

Comment:

Fed says, "QE4 Until at least April".

Buy Buy Buy