The Last Nail to the Coffin of Random Walk Theory..!
In this article, I want to make my argument against the famous Random Walk Theory:
First, let's see if the simplest thing that we think is Random and generates random outcome is really random:
Coin Flip
The most compelling finding that raises concerns about the validity of the coin toss comes from the use of mechanical coin flippers, which can be made to impart exactly the same initial conditions for every toss, namely the starting position, velocity, and force. In these cases, the outcome can be high, if not entirely, predictable.
Coin tossing becomes physics rather than a random event. It is the human element that makes the process random in that each toss tends to be at a different speed, sent to a different height, launched at a different angle, or caught in a different manner. Therefore, the possibility of practicing the task to reduce these different elements can be considered. If you try to toss the coin the same way each time, you should be able to make the outcome significantly different than 50:50.
A limitation of our study is the uncertainty about whether the individual results are repeatable. However, we conclude that the validity of using the toss of a coin to provide a random 50:50 outcome is thrown into doubt, both in medicine and everyday life.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2789164/
Now let's review My AMD analysis:
Please go to each of them, push the play button and see what is happening and then ask yourself if the market is a random phenomenon???
Obviously, AMD has had a Complex correction since December 15, 2021, but I predict all the moves correctly ..!
Another important thing to consider is in 1973 when Random Walk Theory was born, there was no computational power..!
at least Mr. Malkiel had no access to today's computational power!
The Biggest Secret of Rentech is that:
It was Jim Simons who build a good team and made the most money, but it was not him who solved the market..!
Think about...
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
First, let's see if the simplest thing that we think is Random and generates random outcome is really random:
Coin Flip
The most compelling finding that raises concerns about the validity of the coin toss comes from the use of mechanical coin flippers, which can be made to impart exactly the same initial conditions for every toss, namely the starting position, velocity, and force. In these cases, the outcome can be high, if not entirely, predictable.
Coin tossing becomes physics rather than a random event. It is the human element that makes the process random in that each toss tends to be at a different speed, sent to a different height, launched at a different angle, or caught in a different manner. Therefore, the possibility of practicing the task to reduce these different elements can be considered. If you try to toss the coin the same way each time, you should be able to make the outcome significantly different than 50:50.
A limitation of our study is the uncertainty about whether the individual results are repeatable. However, we conclude that the validity of using the toss of a coin to provide a random 50:50 outcome is thrown into doubt, both in medicine and everyday life.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2789164/
Now let's review My AMD analysis:
Please go to each of them, push the play button and see what is happening and then ask yourself if the market is a random phenomenon???
Obviously, AMD has had a Complex correction since December 15, 2021, but I predict all the moves correctly ..!
Another important thing to consider is in 1973 when Random Walk Theory was born, there was no computational power..!
at least Mr. Malkiel had no access to today's computational power!
The Biggest Secret of Rentech is that:
It was Jim Simons who build a good team and made the most money, but it was not him who solved the market..!
Think about...
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
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