0. As always see other posts for notes and context.
1. AMD went to $49.75 in post market yesterday, most likely looking to gap over $50, and bring in new money to chase it higher;
2. AMD broke out from $47.50 resistance (ATH), and this breakout was tested once in the pre-market this morning down to $47.50 or so as earlier indicated in BUYING OPP idea on AMD.
3. Bounced right off this demand zone, and headed back to $49.35 or so, then it reversed to close at $48.60;
4. We have established a possible head and shoulders pattern above $47.50.
5. Also traders are well aware of the $47.50 breakout, and will be looking for either $50+, soon, or the $47.50 reversal. CES is Monday, and I hope
that we can regain momentum from the Press Release at 2pm on Monday.
6. I would not buy nor sell AMD at this point if you have good profit and are long.
7. You can wait for the $47.50 range for a pullback, but really traders are looking for a $50 breakout and run, or they probably won't be interested.
8. I would say Monday will probably be $50+ or heading to $45.05 demand/supply zone which we tested twice I believe.
9. I would not buy at $47.50; I would prefer the $45 zone to pick up more shares.
0. I would also consider opening new positions (we have many), if AMD were to cross $50.
1. I think that a lot of people are the Iran scare may be thinking seriously about taking profits and waiting for re-entry.
Intel
2. It won't take a major catalyst to have a sell off in AMD, just a small buyers strike, because frankly people are getting tired of waiting for a pullback, and only fools would go all in with
new positions at $48.50 or so. We have not determined whether the breakout will hold, or more consolidation around the $45 level is required. We never consolidated around that area
so I would not be surprised to see that. Also look at the sentiments stories over the weekend. We have already started with "ALL TIME BUBBLE HIGH BREACHED IN AMD STOCK" TO "SELL AMD AND TAKE PROFITS."
Not sure here, and many believe that CES marks the turn in semis unless earnings can take us further. INTC is first up, and I have no idea what will come of that. Could be the catalyst like
in 2000 where the market basically crashed after an Intel profit warning in March 2000 (remember exactly where I was when futures were LIMIT DOWN), and AMD held up until June 2000, as you know
it was a "new paradigm" back then too, and AMD was going to crush Intel. Many believe it is different this time, and it is. Intel has all kinds of issues with the 10nm/+ node, and AMD/TSM on 7nm/7nm+ should
keep them at bay for a while. They will move to 5nm EV and higher IPC and try to leapfrog AMD, like last time, but it won't work, as they are already working on 5nm and 3nm with TSM. So they have a foundry
issue and who knows.
Nvdia
3. It would also be remiss to think that Lisa Su gets to do a Monday Press release at 2pm, and NVDA has nothing to show. I would not be surprised to see AMD stock being pressured next week with
information on the next node from NVDA / 7nm. I can promise you that that node will beat anything AMD currently has in the pipeline. Next gen cards will be an issue for AMD.
4. So in short, I think waiting is a prudent move here, a do nothing play I think if you are in. New money after the $50 breakout, or in the $45 zone.
Hedging
5. VXX call spreads and other volatility products correlate very strongly with AMD, but it is possible to have an AMD only selloff and GLD, TVIX, UVXY, VXX hedges may not work.
6. If you have lots of profit do this:
A. Strategy to Collar and wait for rise
A1. You need to have at least $5 in profit and 100 share block to mess with options at this level;
A2. You can sell some ATM calls and use the proceeds to purchase OTM puts for AMD below the supply line. The 44 Strike is popular
as it is below resistance and supply at $45 that seems strong and you should not waste money with ATM or expensive PUTS when
you need to use the support and resistance levels for this.
A3. You SELL the January 17 $50 CALL and buy the January 17 $44 Strike, based on the number of shares you have. 1000 shares, sell 10 calls and buy 10 puts for a credit spread collar on your position.
A4. You need to calculate the Delta and such to figure out your protection. The stock might not break $50 before the 17th as it needs earnings on the 28th possibly for this if we don't have the juice through CES.
A5. If the stock flies past $50, you can dump your puts, and run with the covered calls. If the stock manages to stay above $50 you can simply roll your calls for MUCH MORE PREMIUM with the February strike as that accounts for earnings. If the stock caves, and you are DELTA NEUTRAL OR CLOSE, You will follow AMD down and not lose any money. Ray Dalio Styles. Then you can dump the puts and follow it back up and keep the premium on the CALLS.
7. Typed this all in 2 minutes and no time for proof reading. Have a good weekend, and look at the futures, and news over the weekend. Investors will be thinking about dumping into strength during CES and we don't want that to happen and smoke our profits.
Cheers
The AMD Whisperer
1. AMD went to $49.75 in post market yesterday, most likely looking to gap over $50, and bring in new money to chase it higher;
2. AMD broke out from $47.50 resistance (ATH), and this breakout was tested once in the pre-market this morning down to $47.50 or so as earlier indicated in BUYING OPP idea on AMD.
3. Bounced right off this demand zone, and headed back to $49.35 or so, then it reversed to close at $48.60;
4. We have established a possible head and shoulders pattern above $47.50.
5. Also traders are well aware of the $47.50 breakout, and will be looking for either $50+, soon, or the $47.50 reversal. CES is Monday, and I hope
that we can regain momentum from the Press Release at 2pm on Monday.
6. I would not buy nor sell AMD at this point if you have good profit and are long.
7. You can wait for the $47.50 range for a pullback, but really traders are looking for a $50 breakout and run, or they probably won't be interested.
8. I would say Monday will probably be $50+ or heading to $45.05 demand/supply zone which we tested twice I believe.
9. I would not buy at $47.50; I would prefer the $45 zone to pick up more shares.
0. I would also consider opening new positions (we have many), if AMD were to cross $50.
1. I think that a lot of people are the Iran scare may be thinking seriously about taking profits and waiting for re-entry.
Intel
2. It won't take a major catalyst to have a sell off in AMD, just a small buyers strike, because frankly people are getting tired of waiting for a pullback, and only fools would go all in with
new positions at $48.50 or so. We have not determined whether the breakout will hold, or more consolidation around the $45 level is required. We never consolidated around that area
so I would not be surprised to see that. Also look at the sentiments stories over the weekend. We have already started with "ALL TIME BUBBLE HIGH BREACHED IN AMD STOCK" TO "SELL AMD AND TAKE PROFITS."
Not sure here, and many believe that CES marks the turn in semis unless earnings can take us further. INTC is first up, and I have no idea what will come of that. Could be the catalyst like
in 2000 where the market basically crashed after an Intel profit warning in March 2000 (remember exactly where I was when futures were LIMIT DOWN), and AMD held up until June 2000, as you know
it was a "new paradigm" back then too, and AMD was going to crush Intel. Many believe it is different this time, and it is. Intel has all kinds of issues with the 10nm/+ node, and AMD/TSM on 7nm/7nm+ should
keep them at bay for a while. They will move to 5nm EV and higher IPC and try to leapfrog AMD, like last time, but it won't work, as they are already working on 5nm and 3nm with TSM. So they have a foundry
issue and who knows.
Nvdia
3. It would also be remiss to think that Lisa Su gets to do a Monday Press release at 2pm, and NVDA has nothing to show. I would not be surprised to see AMD stock being pressured next week with
information on the next node from NVDA / 7nm. I can promise you that that node will beat anything AMD currently has in the pipeline. Next gen cards will be an issue for AMD.
4. So in short, I think waiting is a prudent move here, a do nothing play I think if you are in. New money after the $50 breakout, or in the $45 zone.
Hedging
5. VXX call spreads and other volatility products correlate very strongly with AMD, but it is possible to have an AMD only selloff and GLD, TVIX, UVXY, VXX hedges may not work.
6. If you have lots of profit do this:
A. Strategy to Collar and wait for rise
A1. You need to have at least $5 in profit and 100 share block to mess with options at this level;
A2. You can sell some ATM calls and use the proceeds to purchase OTM puts for AMD below the supply line. The 44 Strike is popular
as it is below resistance and supply at $45 that seems strong and you should not waste money with ATM or expensive PUTS when
you need to use the support and resistance levels for this.
A3. You SELL the January 17 $50 CALL and buy the January 17 $44 Strike, based on the number of shares you have. 1000 shares, sell 10 calls and buy 10 puts for a credit spread collar on your position.
A4. You need to calculate the Delta and such to figure out your protection. The stock might not break $50 before the 17th as it needs earnings on the 28th possibly for this if we don't have the juice through CES.
A5. If the stock flies past $50, you can dump your puts, and run with the covered calls. If the stock manages to stay above $50 you can simply roll your calls for MUCH MORE PREMIUM with the February strike as that accounts for earnings. If the stock caves, and you are DELTA NEUTRAL OR CLOSE, You will follow AMD down and not lose any money. Ray Dalio Styles. Then you can dump the puts and follow it back up and keep the premium on the CALLS.
7. Typed this all in 2 minutes and no time for proof reading. Have a good weekend, and look at the futures, and news over the weekend. Investors will be thinking about dumping into strength during CES and we don't want that to happen and smoke our profits.
Cheers
The AMD Whisperer
Trade active:
And another note, when it comes to stocks, the Market is not as smart as you think it is. You have to look at the demographics of the entire populace whom owns AMD stock at any instance in time, to determine exactly what the stock would do.
Imagine this:
If you had a list at a particular instance in time, say Monday January 6th, 12:01EST, when the markets are open of:
1. A List of Every single person or group whom owned AMD;
2. A List of Every single person or group whom owned AMD and access to the ability to buy or sell it, at that instance in time;
3. A List of Every single person or group whom may like to purchase AMD right now at this instance in time, and have the ability to do so in a buy or sell capacity;
4. A List of exactly what the purchasing or selling power is of each of these entities or groups including access to margin, at that instance in time, to establish a weighting system for the sentiment;
5. A List of exactly what every single one of these groups thinks about AMD stock at that instance in time in terms of the probability of them buying or selling AMD stock;
6. Then you would correlate all that information to determine the probability of all those combined entities (weighted of course based on #4), to either buy or sell AMD at the moment in time;
7. You also need a list of whether they currently own stock, how much stock is short, and how much stock can be shorted at this instance in time to enhance #6;
8. You should be able to predict the market movement in AMD with a high degree of certainty;
9. The above set of tasks is not impossible. This is what the world governments are working on with AI, so they can predict all things. Chinese have a "Social Credit System", look that it, it includes complete surveillance and knowledge of everything that anybody does at any instance in time, location, purchases, social media and online activity, NSA in USA does the same thing, Facebook, Snowden exposed this. The end is the ability to predict the future.
0. Now why talk about AI and the future? Because the average mean intelligence quotient of the HUMAN RACE is 100. Most people are simply not that bring, and especially when it comes to finance.
1. You are actually trying to predict what a group of people or entities will do, and the highest percentage of that group, is simply average, in all respects, in the equity markets.
2. This is what charts and analysis work, as it target human emotions and sentiment and "the average person".
CONCLUSION:
The Market is stupid.
How many times have you watched the completely obvious unfold?
Not do anything about it?
Watch your great idea unfold?
It happens over and over again...
Yes, because you are NOT the average investor and you are AHEAD of the Market.
So, if the January Selloff and the CNBC crap about sell right after CES sounds very obvious, it might be right on the money.
Also, if you are the average Joe, and you hear everything about CES 2020 and semiconductors going down after that, and a January correction coming, do you really want to hang around for Intel Earnings on January 26th? The average Joe would probably just sell right into CES strength, and say, I made good money, I don't have to pay taxes until 2021 now if I sell, and I can buy it back later, cause I love AMD.
Please don't get fooled by the obvious. We may sell off next week, and it is as obvious as can be....
Don't sit by and watch it happen again.
Cheers.
Imagine this:
If you had a list at a particular instance in time, say Monday January 6th, 12:01EST, when the markets are open of:
1. A List of Every single person or group whom owned AMD;
2. A List of Every single person or group whom owned AMD and access to the ability to buy or sell it, at that instance in time;
3. A List of Every single person or group whom may like to purchase AMD right now at this instance in time, and have the ability to do so in a buy or sell capacity;
4. A List of exactly what the purchasing or selling power is of each of these entities or groups including access to margin, at that instance in time, to establish a weighting system for the sentiment;
5. A List of exactly what every single one of these groups thinks about AMD stock at that instance in time in terms of the probability of them buying or selling AMD stock;
6. Then you would correlate all that information to determine the probability of all those combined entities (weighted of course based on #4), to either buy or sell AMD at the moment in time;
7. You also need a list of whether they currently own stock, how much stock is short, and how much stock can be shorted at this instance in time to enhance #6;
8. You should be able to predict the market movement in AMD with a high degree of certainty;
9. The above set of tasks is not impossible. This is what the world governments are working on with AI, so they can predict all things. Chinese have a "Social Credit System", look that it, it includes complete surveillance and knowledge of everything that anybody does at any instance in time, location, purchases, social media and online activity, NSA in USA does the same thing, Facebook, Snowden exposed this. The end is the ability to predict the future.
0. Now why talk about AI and the future? Because the average mean intelligence quotient of the HUMAN RACE is 100. Most people are simply not that bring, and especially when it comes to finance.
1. You are actually trying to predict what a group of people or entities will do, and the highest percentage of that group, is simply average, in all respects, in the equity markets.
2. This is what charts and analysis work, as it target human emotions and sentiment and "the average person".
CONCLUSION:
The Market is stupid.
How many times have you watched the completely obvious unfold?
Not do anything about it?
Watch your great idea unfold?
It happens over and over again...
Yes, because you are NOT the average investor and you are AHEAD of the Market.
So, if the January Selloff and the CNBC crap about sell right after CES sounds very obvious, it might be right on the money.
Also, if you are the average Joe, and you hear everything about CES 2020 and semiconductors going down after that, and a January correction coming, do you really want to hang around for Intel Earnings on January 26th? The average Joe would probably just sell right into CES strength, and say, I made good money, I don't have to pay taxes until 2021 now if I sell, and I can buy it back later, cause I love AMD.
Please don't get fooled by the obvious. We may sell off next week, and it is as obvious as can be....
Don't sit by and watch it happen again.
Cheers.
Trade active:
And I will say one more thing about the obvious:
1. The average Joe may think that AMD is going to $100 in the next week. If you do a search on Reddit and you can see posts in May June 2000, right before AMD tanked from $48 to like $2, of "Easy triple from here boys!!!".
2. So the average Joe may chase AMD to $100 like sheep and fools. The problem is if this happens, the volatility on AMD would be like Beyond Meat. The fall would be really bad, think from $100 back to $50 / $60 range, before you can hit the sell button. You KNOW that earnings on January 28th could do just that, if we run to $80 or something stupid in the next 3 weeks. Just where do you exit then? No thanks.
3. So this is why next week is critical and into earnings to determine where we are going.
4. I KNOW ONE THINK FOR CERTAIN. AMD STOCK IS NOT STAYING AT $48 FOR LONG. EITHER $50+ OR BREAKDOWN COMING LIKE ANY DAY. NO CHOICE IN THE MATTER I BELIEVE. NOBODY IS WAITING FOR EARNINGS AND GETTING SMOKED, SO WE NEED TO DO $50 SOON, OR THE BAILING BEGINS.
1. The average Joe may think that AMD is going to $100 in the next week. If you do a search on Reddit and you can see posts in May June 2000, right before AMD tanked from $48 to like $2, of "Easy triple from here boys!!!".
2. So the average Joe may chase AMD to $100 like sheep and fools. The problem is if this happens, the volatility on AMD would be like Beyond Meat. The fall would be really bad, think from $100 back to $50 / $60 range, before you can hit the sell button. You KNOW that earnings on January 28th could do just that, if we run to $80 or something stupid in the next 3 weeks. Just where do you exit then? No thanks.
3. So this is why next week is critical and into earnings to determine where we are going.
4. I KNOW ONE THINK FOR CERTAIN. AMD STOCK IS NOT STAYING AT $48 FOR LONG. EITHER $50+ OR BREAKDOWN COMING LIKE ANY DAY. NO CHOICE IN THE MATTER I BELIEVE. NOBODY IS WAITING FOR EARNINGS AND GETTING SMOKED, SO WE NEED TO DO $50 SOON, OR THE BAILING BEGINS.
Comment:
Well it looks like we might have our answer:
We have an incident early last Friday morning with China and the UK and the listing of companies. This seems to have gone unnoticed. Too being dealing with an assassinated General et al.
www.investing.com/ne...ons--sources-2050909
Also, Trump just said that he will strike 52 targets in Iran if they try anything.
www.cnbc.com/2020/01...ates-against-us.html
So what we have here is Mr. Trump saying that if Iran retaliates in "ANY WAY", it results in a "HARD AND FAST STRIKE AGAINST 52 IRANIAN TARGETS." Now I don't know about you, but the Stock Market is up massively in the past few months, we got a Black Swan event on Thursday night and a Friday selloff, which people used as a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY".
The German Dax may cave:
www.investing.com/an...ng-bearish-200496326
The Market is anticipating German Stimulus and this would be more upside, but the DAX looks to cave, and the average shareholder must be thinking this:
"So everyone is expecting a selloff in January. CNBC is saying it will be led by Semiconductors after CES which starts on Monday. We have a Black Swan event on January 2nd, and if you look at all stocks like AAPL, NVDA, you name it the big gainers, all just perched ready to move higher or cave in. Iran is run by a bunch of religious nut-jobs so they might just call Trump's Bluff (if it is one - and I assure you it isn't), and then Trump does what? Attacks 52 targets and decimates Iran? What happens to my 306% gain in AMD if this happens. Hmmmm. Maybe I sell half on Monday as I was planning to sell half anyway. You know what, I am going to just sell it all and pay taxes in 2021, and ride this madness out."
I CALL DOWN, WE MAY TRY TO RESIST THE MARKET FOR A BIT, BUT WE WILL GET OVERWHELMED.
LETS SEE, BUT I SAY 80% PROBABILITY A SELLOFF STARTS WITH HORRID FUTURES TOMORROW NIGHT AND GOES FROM THERE.
We have an incident early last Friday morning with China and the UK and the listing of companies. This seems to have gone unnoticed. Too being dealing with an assassinated General et al.
www.investing.com/ne...ons--sources-2050909
Also, Trump just said that he will strike 52 targets in Iran if they try anything.
www.cnbc.com/2020/01...ates-against-us.html
So what we have here is Mr. Trump saying that if Iran retaliates in "ANY WAY", it results in a "HARD AND FAST STRIKE AGAINST 52 IRANIAN TARGETS." Now I don't know about you, but the Stock Market is up massively in the past few months, we got a Black Swan event on Thursday night and a Friday selloff, which people used as a "BUYING OPPORTUNITY".
The German Dax may cave:
www.investing.com/an...ng-bearish-200496326
The Market is anticipating German Stimulus and this would be more upside, but the DAX looks to cave, and the average shareholder must be thinking this:
"So everyone is expecting a selloff in January. CNBC is saying it will be led by Semiconductors after CES which starts on Monday. We have a Black Swan event on January 2nd, and if you look at all stocks like AAPL, NVDA, you name it the big gainers, all just perched ready to move higher or cave in. Iran is run by a bunch of religious nut-jobs so they might just call Trump's Bluff (if it is one - and I assure you it isn't), and then Trump does what? Attacks 52 targets and decimates Iran? What happens to my 306% gain in AMD if this happens. Hmmmm. Maybe I sell half on Monday as I was planning to sell half anyway. You know what, I am going to just sell it all and pay taxes in 2021, and ride this madness out."
I CALL DOWN, WE MAY TRY TO RESIST THE MARKET FOR A BIT, BUT WE WILL GET OVERWHELMED.
LETS SEE, BUT I SAY 80% PROBABILITY A SELLOFF STARTS WITH HORRID FUTURES TOMORROW NIGHT AND GOES FROM THERE.
Trade closed manually:
And the winner is...
Futures getting smoked and they just opened...
Not as bad as it seems, because futures don't necessarily mean AMD....
Going to open a few new ideas on AMD, hedging, support, big players and long gamma, mysterious AMD closing purchases in last month (long gamma), and some other stuff that might help, including AMD issues with our AMD Surface laptop (Was really just MSFT adding AMD to the Surface line, but sales are not great, that is why Lisa Su is introducing next gen laptop mobile tomorrow...), and the 4600U that Lisa Su is revealing next gen Laptop Mobile, that is the secret I think, that is not so secret. NVDA might roll out 3000 series. Anyway, more to come soon. Just getting going. Lots of research before I post.
Closing this idea. Cheers.
Futures getting smoked and they just opened...
Not as bad as it seems, because futures don't necessarily mean AMD....
Going to open a few new ideas on AMD, hedging, support, big players and long gamma, mysterious AMD closing purchases in last month (long gamma), and some other stuff that might help, including AMD issues with our AMD Surface laptop (Was really just MSFT adding AMD to the Surface line, but sales are not great, that is why Lisa Su is introducing next gen laptop mobile tomorrow...), and the 4600U that Lisa Su is revealing next gen Laptop Mobile, that is the secret I think, that is not so secret. NVDA might roll out 3000 series. Anyway, more to come soon. Just getting going. Lots of research before I post.
Closing this idea. Cheers.
Have a great weekend, whomever and wherever you are.