ASO excellent trend and set up

NASDAQ:ASO   Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
ASO is a very well run small cap consumer discretionary. They had a fantastic earnings this quarter and raised guidance. This is in contradiction to poor earnings from big box sports goods retailers FL and DKS who cited retail theft and weakening consumer demand among reasons for their misses.

The weekly chart shows a strong primary trend in a consistent upward channel, and what looks to be a repeat of the secondary trend that we saw from November 2021 to June 2022. $47 was strong resistance in 2021 and the first half of 2022. It's retested and turned it into key support. Note the fib timezone has correlated to major pivot points and aligns closely to where the current downtrend and the upward channel in the primary trend converge. This implies that we are likely to consolidate for several more weeks before breaking out to higher highs.

The daily chart offers much less clarity. I had previously identified cup and handle forming between May and July. We never got a full candle close above the handle, so that was not a buy. It formed a very brief island bottom reversal when price plummeted on the DKS earnings miss and then attempted a recovery at ASO earnings. Price moved above VWAPs from recent price extremes, but could not reclaim the 200SMA and closed below the VWAP from ATH. This aligns to what the weekly chart is telling us; we have further to go before the next uptrend. Note the small gap above at $64-65 which will likely be resistance in the future.

I currently hold a small position (<1% of my portfolio), but plan to increase exposure. My gameplan:
  • Accumulate gradually over the next 2-4 weeks anywhere between $48-51
  • Take some profit at $59 and $64
  • Stop loss at ~42, which is 1 ATR below major support


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