From the weekly perspective, price is sitting inside the strong resistance area and created an overextended W formation, after the W formation, price normally will retest the neckline of the W (Previous resistance now turned support). From the daily perspective, the price was broke above the new structure and it may close back below this structure and create a fake breakout to hunt those breakout traders and grab the liquidity to push the price to the downside.
From the COT perspective, hedge funds are still bearish bias on AUD, and from the longer-term perspective, the total of short positions (64k) is greater than the total of long positions ( 25k ), and they were added another 5.7k of the short positions in the latest week. in this case, may see AUD become weaker, and AUDCAD will push to the downside.
The proper way to approaching this pair should be waiting for the daily price break and close below the new structure area with an equal low, because after the equal low, we may a higher chance to see an HNS pattern. If the price manages to do it and create a right shoulder, then we can switch to 4H to monitoring the short confirmation, if there have shown one of the valid rules of me, I will take a nice short on AC with a good risk-reward.
Remember, always react to the market instead of predicting the market, this analysis is based on technical and COT perspective.
Comment down below and let me know your thought.
From the COT perspective, hedge funds are still bearish bias on AUD, and from the longer-term perspective, the total of short positions (64k) is greater than the total of long positions ( 25k ), and they were added another 5.7k of the short positions in the latest week. in this case, may see AUD become weaker, and AUDCAD will push to the downside.
The proper way to approaching this pair should be waiting for the daily price break and close below the new structure area with an equal low, because after the equal low, we may a higher chance to see an HNS pattern. If the price manages to do it and create a right shoulder, then we can switch to 4H to monitoring the short confirmation, if there have shown one of the valid rules of me, I will take a nice short on AC with a good risk-reward.
Remember, always react to the market instead of predicting the market, this analysis is based on technical and COT perspective.
Comment down below and let me know your thought.