IvanLabrie
Short

AUDJPY: Short at linear regression channel top

FX:AUDJPY   Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
543 53 16
Downtrend continuation confirmed, bearish flag breakout is in effect.
Relative strength tells me it's the perfect time to enter short with a tight stop.
Two possible entries, one under the low, and one at a possible retracement.
1.25% risk each, good luck!
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
:D Welcome to the short xxxJPY club!!
+2 Reply
jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
JPY could be the safe haven @justatrader :-)
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Massive move in equities. I closed out on FTSE short yesterday (early in the day) and ended watching price fall like a rock :(
Nice move today in GBPJPY though, seemed bullish for the most part which was frustrating but eventually gave way. But I think this decline will be short lived. Expecting some kind of Yen weakness sooner or later, something to be careful about.
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Plenty of pips to be had...yen strength has a long way to go.
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Really? I have a rather modest TP in CADJPY and GBPJPY... Might give it a go letting the partial trade run its course at BE. Who knows!! I thought Yen's seasonal strength was only in Feb?
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Saw the Nikkei chart?
Relative strength tells me it'll get stronger than even usd soon. I'll follow this path until proven wrong. That's how I normally do it. Same with euro, was a strong run. I got out last night, might have jumped the gun, but well. I'll continue to sell rallies.
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
EU could bounce or just free fall.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
1.0340
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
If GBPUSD goes up, you will beat yourself even harder i think
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Bloody Hell!! I missed and I mean i really MISSED a great trade :(
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
My audjpy limit sell wasn't triggered by 1 pip man...same thing happened with eurusd yesterday. I think my broker's playing with me.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Price proceeds to move in my expected direction afterwards...I'm never not leaving a sell stop under the low in cases like these again.
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
That sucks... Maybe it has to do with the spread widening? Besides you still have a lot of room to the downside, so i'm assuming you jumped in at market/
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
I had a limit sell trying to capture a retracement, a couple days ago. Retraced as expected, missed by one pip then down.
My rules make me pick that level, always, part of the strategy. No problem, if I know price will move fast, I leave a sell stop under the recent low and use the same stop as I would for the retracement fill.
Works very well if I'm sure about getting involved in a trend.
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Hahaha! Thanks! :p
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HappyKing
2 years ago
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excepting good trend
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jangseohee
2 years ago
i might get the projection incorrect
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Second bearish candle close or low (in the second triangle) might offer some support, would be a good spot to book some profits and adjust stops
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
I'm patient...once the highest low is breached down, it'll go free fall on us.
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Probably time to scale in or average down the entry.

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Violent up bar...seems like we're out.
I'll wait to re-enter, I still think this pair is headed down.
+1 Reply
jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
come out to flush stop loss?
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I'm 95% sure that's the case.
The way the weekly bar closes will tell us what we need to know...that we already suspect.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Highly suspect that is the case:
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I could re enter now, seems like the day will close like a pin bar.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
If it works, it's a great risk/reward:

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same here.. exited some late short entries earlier today and re entered new shorts again. Is it normal or weird that the Yen crosses are rallying from late Asian to European and then falling from US session onwards? observing this trend for the past 2 days.
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Means bigger money is long Yen...
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
could you elaborate or point to some more info on this? Don't quite see the relationship.
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
What sessions have the highest volume/liquidity?
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
US > Europe > Asia Pacific
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Right!
So, bigger players operate during the US/Euro overlap.
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
aaahhhhh.... that way. Hmm.. Interesting!!
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jangseohee
2 years ago
fellow mates,
yes, the strength in AUD is due to MACD bullish divergence in black
though not confirm yet, i thought i see a hidden bearish divergence, as this is the downtrend
(price making lower high, MACD making higher higher) in orange
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+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
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Flat correction almost complete, or complete...
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Almost...now it does look complete.
1h bar took the highest low, 5m looks like an ending diagonal conclusion to that wave C.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
if the current bar close big, then hidden divergence could have started
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I'm out, won't touch this pair until it leaves this consolidation zone.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
what happen after it fall out of rising wedge.. geeze, that green pin bar has a tick higher to take SL.. (it happens 90% of the time. due to new data, i have adjusted my daily channel
Lets see how it pans out
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yen in general started retracing, and 'positive' news came out for the Aussie dollar...not really positive, but seems like it was a good excuse to go up to run my stop.
I move on, and wait for a good setup, this isn't one right now.
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justatrader PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Tuesday maybe with the BoJ statement. Expecting to hold on to qe. Could be Yen positive.
+1 Reply
jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
Hi justatrader, you mean next Tuesday?
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yep.
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Scale in...
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HiTech PRO
2 years ago
I am with you on the short
AUDJPY NEXT SWING DOWN
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Same situation as cadjpy.
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Daily and weekly time and price targets:

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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Invalidation level retested, this will grind sideways before going down.
I still think it will fall but it's better to stay out until the sell setup gets confirmation.
I'll get out for a minimal loss this time around.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
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Nothing to do in this timeframe, we're range bound until further notice.
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Price action turned into a stubborn range:

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Teasing both sides...no real move yet.
Notice how RgMov warned us of this by not plotting new highrs or lows from that tight corridor, also no new 2 month high or low.
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I'll start looking for an entry short if we cross under the weekly congestion zone.
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