IvanLabrie
Short

USDJPY and Nikkei: Potential reversal

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
428 32 10
We have a nice short opportunity in these charts.
It's more evident in the case of USDJPY             which offers a clear target and invalidation level.
In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider bullish in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar.

We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY             .
Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
Trade closed: target reached
How many people took this usdjpy short?
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
waiting for a short
+1 Reply
EW speculation for a future path:

snapshot
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Price action is starting to suggest that the top hasn't been reached in the Nikkei, and thus USDJPY remains ranging, but with a strong bearish bias.
I got stopped out of my risk free short, as well as the scale in for a minimal loss.
I opened a new short from the daily high area, intending to capture the correction from today's euphoric move up.
There's a new uptrend signal, you can see the price and time target in the following chart:
snapshot

I suspect this setup will turn into a failure, with the price target not reached in time, giving us a perfect short.
For the time being I'll attempt to take a risk free long here after covering the short, and break even from the long asap as well.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
We had an inside bar, it's possible that today's bar is a small range doji, and also an inside bar.
I'd happily short under the low after the close, since it's possible the market freezes waiting for the BOJ monetary policy news.
+1 Reply
snapshot


A drop under last month's low would open the door to the next support as per the chart.
There is an uptrend timer running, in the monthly, but target was exceeded way ahead of time, so I wouldn't count on that one working anymore.
+1 Reply
Downtrend signal still active, I took a short from the 119.74 region, covered half at 119.295 and letting this one run risk free.
I'll try to scale in if we get a retracement.
If and once price moves under today's low, we will hit my lower target in the scheduled time or sooner.

snapshot
+1 Reply
Bearish target reached, time expired and it reversed (probably briefly, judging by the Nikkei chart)
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Last daily uptrend expired for the Nikkei...time to short *JPY pairs.
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