IvanLabrie
Short

USDJPY and Nikkei: Potential reversal

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
426 32 10
We have a nice short opportunity in these charts.
It's more evident in the case of USDJPY             which offers a clear target and invalidation level.
In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider bullish in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar.

We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY             .
Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
Trade closed: target reached
I like the fact that you are working with the time, haven't followed how accurate it is though
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It's very accurate, gives me a really effective if-then-else chain to guide my decisions without letting emotions interfere, as well as objective support and resistance, and invalidation levels.
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HiTech IvanLabrie
Would be nice if you can place trades on the chart, easier to follow, possible?
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It looks messy...stop is wherever you want, above the invalidation level, or using ATR.
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http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/minu_2015/g150218.pdf

BOJ minutes are out!
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I placed a hedge stop buy where my stop lies, in case we retest the highest high. 30 pip stop, risking 3%.
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HiTech IvanLabrie
I'll follow up on that :)
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what a corelation!
daily channel for UJ
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
Powerful channeling...starting from the impulse too. (if you look at my EW chart, it's around there)
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THANKS jvan for analysis
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Nikkei and usdjpy heading up...invalidating my short.
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Hi jvan if price break 121.250 inalidating your short
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IvanLabrie PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
It can touch it and rebound down still, my stop is above that level, at 121.36. There's a long there too, targetting 122.
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Monthly chart using Tim West's rgmov:

snapshot


My take is this is reaching critical levels, it can't go over 23155 technically, but I'd be very surprised if crosses 20381.
It might turn down now...
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Easily falling to 15-12k.
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snapshot


Price opened under Kijun sen, for the ichimoku users...
Headed to a tenkan/kijun bearish cross and probably crossing under the cloud soon.
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Daily update:
snapshot

Time to scale in!
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I covered the short, I think we might see another move up or sideways before continuing down.
I'd rather take my 90 pips and run now.
snapshot
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HiTech IvanLabrie
agree, I might have a sell signal on today's daily close, but yet to be confirmed, for now I am out as well
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It's a good idea to wait now...look at the Nikkei and DXY. Major factors, along with fundamentals.
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Conflicting information: the uptrend timer for the Nikkei expires today, but USDJPY reached the price target ahead of time and found support...I expect some choppy behavior in USDJPY, but other JPY pairs might turn very bearish if Nikkei prints a range expansion down bar.

snapshot
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Last daily uptrend expired for the Nikkei...time to short *JPY pairs.
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Bearish target reached, time expired and it reversed (probably briefly, judging by the Nikkei chart)
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Downtrend signal still active, I took a short from the 119.74 region, covered half at 119.295 and letting this one run risk free.
I'll try to scale in if we get a retracement.
If and once price moves under today's low, we will hit my lower target in the scheduled time or sooner.

snapshot
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snapshot


A drop under last month's low would open the door to the next support as per the chart.
There is an uptrend timer running, in the monthly, but target was exceeded way ahead of time, so I wouldn't count on that one working anymore.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
We had an inside bar, it's possible that today's bar is a small range doji, and also an inside bar.
I'd happily short under the low after the close, since it's possible the market freezes waiting for the BOJ monetary policy news.
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Price action is starting to suggest that the top hasn't been reached in the Nikkei, and thus USDJPY remains ranging, but with a strong bearish bias.
I got stopped out of my risk free short, as well as the scale in for a minimal loss.
I opened a new short from the daily high area, intending to capture the correction from today's euphoric move up.
There's a new uptrend signal, you can see the price and time target in the following chart:
snapshot

I suspect this setup will turn into a failure, with the price target not reached in time, giving us a perfect short.
For the time being I'll attempt to take a risk free long here after covering the short, and break even from the long asap as well.
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EW speculation for a future path:

snapshot
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How many people took this usdjpy short?
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HiTech IvanLabrie
waiting for a short
USDJPY RANGING CONTINUES
+1 Reply
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