It's more evident in the case of USDJPY which offers a clear target and invalidation level.
In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar.
We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY .
Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
I got stopped out of my risk free short, as well as the scale in for a minimal loss.
I opened a new short from the daily high area, intending to capture the correction from today's euphoric move up.
There's a new uptrend signal, you can see the price and time target in the following chart:
I suspect this setup will turn into a failure, with the price target not reached in time, giving us a perfect short.
For the time being I'll attempt to take a risk free long here after covering the short, and break even from the long asap as well.