AUDNZD - Bullish Long Term & Short Term Trend?
Analysis:
Looking at the charts we can clearly see that price was in an upwards trend. We've seen price form higher highs and higher lows, until recently when we saw this trend change and price started to make a move to the downside. In our opinion price is still in a long term upwards trend, however the short term trend was to the downside, but we are actually bullish on this pair for a number of reasons. The first one being that we are at the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level, so we have strong reasoning on why we think that buyers will step in at this level and push price higher. To further add to our bullish thesis, at this area we also have a strong level of support. Looking back in the past we've seen price reach this area previously and consolidate showing that this is a pretty strong level, and another reason on why we think buyers will step in here, but these aren't the only confluences we have to back our idea up. Price is forming a long term ascending triangle which is a bullish chart pattern, meaning that we expect price to be bullish and head to the upside which favours our idea. The bottom trendline for this pattern also lines up with our area of support and the 61.8% fib retracement level, so this is now looking like a very strong level to enter at. Finally for the technicals, we saw price respecting this short term downwards trendline until recently. Price was able to break out of this downwards trend signalling to us that the bears are no longer in control and it's time for the bulls to step in and push price higher. Again this favours our bullish thesis. Looking at the fundamentals as well we see that the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency whereas the NZD is the 5th strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour, there isn't a massive difference here and this also isn't the full picture. Taking a look at the COT report, we see that the AUD stayed pretty neutral with roughly the same decrease in long and short positions, however this isn't the same for the NZD. In fact we saw a big increase in short positions which signals to us that there is weakness to come for the NZD. Again this would be bullish for this pair. Overall almost everything we pay attention to is pointing to bullishness on this pair and with such a great opportunity setting up we have a great setup on our hands which is why we are bullish on AUDNZD.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Looking at the charts we can clearly see that price was in an upwards trend. We've seen price form higher highs and higher lows, until recently when we saw this trend change and price started to make a move to the downside. In our opinion price is still in a long term upwards trend, however the short term trend was to the downside, but we are actually bullish on this pair for a number of reasons. The first one being that we are at the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib retracement level, so we have strong reasoning on why we think that buyers will step in at this level and push price higher. To further add to our bullish thesis, at this area we also have a strong level of support. Looking back in the past we've seen price reach this area previously and consolidate showing that this is a pretty strong level, and another reason on why we think buyers will step in here, but these aren't the only confluences we have to back our idea up. Price is forming a long term ascending triangle which is a bullish chart pattern, meaning that we expect price to be bullish and head to the upside which favours our idea. The bottom trendline for this pattern also lines up with our area of support and the 61.8% fib retracement level, so this is now looking like a very strong level to enter at. Finally for the technicals, we saw price respecting this short term downwards trendline until recently. Price was able to break out of this downwards trend signalling to us that the bears are no longer in control and it's time for the bulls to step in and push price higher. Again this favours our bullish thesis. Looking at the fundamentals as well we see that the AUD is the 6th strongest major currency whereas the NZD is the 5th strongest major currency. Whilst this doesn't go in our favour, there isn't a massive difference here and this also isn't the full picture. Taking a look at the COT report, we see that the AUD stayed pretty neutral with roughly the same decrease in long and short positions, however this isn't the same for the NZD. In fact we saw a big increase in short positions which signals to us that there is weakness to come for the NZD. Again this would be bullish for this pair. Overall almost everything we pay attention to is pointing to bullishness on this pair and with such a great opportunity setting up we have a great setup on our hands which is why we are bullish on AUDNZD.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you!
Stay Safe - The JPI Team
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Trade active:
Our entry criteria has been met and our order has now been filled. We are long on AUDNZD, after we saw a breakout of the short term downwards trend. We now expect that price will continue its longer term move to the upside.