FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
Hey, traders. Happy New Year to all of you. We have an uptrend continuation after the false breakout to the downside. Going to take this bat to enter long.
Trade active: the entry was triggered
Trade closed: target reached
I wondered about trailing stops as price reached near target - since in this one price has exceeded target? Trailing stop would lock in profit at target and possibly take whatever more the market has to give.
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
You need to trail your stop in every trade, because you never know if the price will go beyond the take profit. I tested lots of variations and taking profits here is optimal. The result is absolutely the same if you take your profits at A-point with breakeven at 2/3 of profit distance, but more comfortable psychologically because of more frequent winners))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
So if you're trailing stops, why close the trade as you've put it up as 'closed'?
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
I do not trail stops. As I said above you either do it consistently or stop thinking about it. You suggested to trail stops near the tp level. It means that you trail your profit distance. It also means that price needs to go twice the distance and go back to the stop for you to take the initial targets. It can, of course. But taking profits at initial place is far more frequent scenario...
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
I don't think we're speaking about the same thing or perhaps you're not understanding me. What you're saying is not logically consistent with objective of maximising profitability, because trailing from the tp up still guarantees the tp target (it only aims to catch whatever more there may be from a safe position of the tp). I can't explain further. BTW you are free to not do what you don't want to do. ;) http://www.newtrader.club/2015/02/22/trailing-stops-and-stop-losses/
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
Mate, I understand completely. You need a distance to trail your stop. You suggested to move stops at tp level. Where should I move it? to breakeven? then the distance between price and stop is your profit distance. Or you suggest to place stop at tp level as soon as price goes one pip above it? Then you will be stopped if the next tick is down.
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
See here https://goo.gl/STsQYG
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
I do not think in "might" or "may be". I think in precise numbers that appear after 100 trades. Thoughts of improving the strategy are self-sabotaging thoughts))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
"I do not think in 'might' or 'may be'." But you do mate - you just don't know it. LOL. Wherever there is a possibility or probability there is a maybe. Trading is about probabilities and possibilities - innit? ;) :)
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
Probability notion in statistics is a bit different from probability/possibility notion you use in everyday life. Probability is the exact number of this particular outcome if you take that number of experiments. The more experiments you take the more precise is the probability number. What you call "probability/possibility" is the probability number projected into the current experiment. This is done for the sake of prediction of this particular outcome."might be" is used when the probability number you project is slightly above 50% giving you an illusion that you can somehow predict the outcome. "may be" is used when this number is larger, so the illusion is stronger, it looks more real. "must be" is used when the number is very high, e.g. 80%, so you are almost sure you know the outcome. But the fact is the stays the same. It is only illusion that you can know the outcome...
What I say is that I know the exact number of winning outcomes of 100 trades. This number is exact. But I do not project this number to a particularily taken trade trying to predict its outcome. So, I do not need those "might be"s and "may be"s
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