FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
Hey, traders. Happy New Year to all of you. We have an uptrend continuation after the false breakout to the downside. Going to take this bat to enter long.
Trade active: the entry was triggered
Trade closed: target reached
Brilliant!!! :))
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I wondered about trailing stops as price reached near target - since in this one price has exceeded target? Trailing stop would lock in profit at target and possibly take whatever more the market has to give.
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
You need to trail your stop in every trade, because you never know if the price will go beyond the take profit. I tested lots of variations and taking profits here is optimal. The result is absolutely the same if you take your profits at A-point with breakeven at 2/3 of profit distance, but more comfortable psychologically because of more frequent winners))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
So if you're trailing stops, why close the trade as you've put it up as 'closed'?
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
I do not trail stops. As I said above you either do it consistently or stop thinking about it. You suggested to trail stops near the tp level. It means that you trail your profit distance. It also means that price needs to go twice the distance and go back to the stop for you to take the initial targets. It can, of course. But taking profits at initial place is far more frequent scenario...
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
I don't think we're speaking about the same thing or perhaps you're not understanding me. What you're saying is not logically consistent with objective of maximising profitability, because trailing from the tp up still guarantees the tp target (it only aims to catch whatever more there may be from a safe position of the tp). I can't explain further. BTW you are free to not do what you don't want to do. ;) http://www.newtrader.club/2015/02/22/trailing-stops-and-stop-losses/
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
Mate, I understand completely. You need a distance to trail your stop. You suggested to move stops at tp level. Where should I move it? to breakeven? then the distance between price and stop is your profit distance. Or you suggest to place stop at tp level as soon as price goes one pip above it? Then you will be stopped if the next tick is down.
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
See here https://goo.gl/STsQYG
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
I do not think in "might" or "may be". I think in precise numbers that appear after 100 trades. Thoughts of improving the strategy are self-sabotaging thoughts))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
"I do not think in 'might' or 'may be'." But you do mate - you just don't know it. LOL. Wherever there is a possibility or probability there is a maybe. Trading is about probabilities and possibilities - innit? ;) :)
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
Probability notion in statistics is a bit different from probability/possibility notion you use in everyday life. Probability is the exact number of this particular outcome if you take that number of experiments. The more experiments you take the more precise is the probability number. What you call "probability/possibility" is the probability number projected into the current experiment. This is done for the sake of prediction of this particular outcome."might be" is used when the probability number you project is slightly above 50% giving you an illusion that you can somehow predict the outcome. "may be" is used when this number is larger, so the illusion is stronger, it looks more real. "must be" is used when the number is very high, e.g. 80%, so you are almost sure you know the outcome. But the fact is the stays the same. It is only illusion that you can know the outcome...
What I say is that I know the exact number of winning outcomes of 100 trades. This number is exact. But I do not project this number to a particularily taken trade trying to predict its outcome. So, I do not need those "might be"s and "may be"s
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
That's fine - whatever the words mean to you. You wanna make money or argue semantics? :)

All I know is that where I've met my TP, I have the option from the TP to maximise profit, from a zero loss successful position. So that means, I'm now no worse off than having hit the target - and no chance of falling below the TP.

By using trailing stops I would give the market an opportunity to give me more profit - whilst keeping my very safe TP position. Others are free to do as they wish. I'm not here to modify anybody's trading plan. If anyone out there sees the sense in this then fine. If not that's also fine. https://goo.gl/JRU2B6

If price wants to in excess of the target, I'll take what the market has. The worst that can happen is that it falls back to the TP level - and that's as good. Trailing a stop beyond the is logically consistent with everybody's system of trading (even if they don't believe it).
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
Why do you make those screenshots? You think I do not know what is trailing stop?;))
you start trailing stop with moving stops to tp level. What I was asking you is the trigger that signals you to move you stops. Usually, it is distance. E,g; If price goes 10 pips beyond tp level, then I move stops to tp level. If it goes 11 pips beyond tp, then I move stops to tp+1pip level. and so on.
How do you know it will go 10 pips beyond tp? What if it goes only 7 and then comes back? How do you know price goes only up in green candles from the screen shot? It can go 10 pips up and 10 pips down several times and then close above the open price, so the candle will be drawn green.
One should have a set of sound rules to use trailing stops. Without these rules it will be imposible to test the idea. I am asking you for rules/ That's it.
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
"Why do you make those screenshots? You think I do not know what is trailing stop?;))"

I made the screenshot show exactly what it shows i.e. that in this particular trade:
1. Approx 55% more could have been made.
2. That there is no disadvantage to taking the trailing stop from the TP.
I made no assumption that you do not know what a trailing stop is.

I'm not interested in your particular method of deciding what you do. As I said quite clearly I have no intention to change anybody's preferred method of trading.

If anybody was interested in finding a way to trail stops at or close to the TP, then there is evidence not just from this one trade, that it can be a useful thing to do.

I agree entirely that one should have a sound set of rules. Who invents the rules? The person who invents them is the person who may wish to consider if or whether they can introduce a trailing stop technique to maximise profits. I did not say I have set of rules for this. But at least if one looks at the evidence and evaluates, one may be able to create a set of rules and backtest them.

I'm sure your own set of rules came from careful observation and testing. One can decide to stay with one set of rules forever, never evaluating any other evidence to modify them. That's entirely fine - and that's another reason I put up the screenshots, so that I am very clear that I have no intention to impose an new set of rules on anyone.

That's the great thing about trading - everybody is their own boss. They can choose to do whatever they like - innit?
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
I agree with the passage about the boss))). What I cannot agree is your suggestion that trailing stop can maximize profits. May be you could have a bit more profit in this particular trade, but other trades will take this additional profit away. This is the way the strategy works. It is impossible to use trailing stop without destroying the strategy.
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IvanLabrie PRO Alexander_Nikitin
I don't think trailing stops after surpassing the target can hurt at all...something like trailing under each low would work, for sure.
First trail at the desired tp, then trail on close under each low.
Test it...
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That's it. Sound rules of trailing. Thanks, mate.
To tell the truth, I do not have a desire to spend my time on testing this. I know that price slows down after surpassing tp level, that's why I set the tp at the place it is. If only I had some good probability of price to go higher, I would definitely found a way to catch that additional profit.
The second reason is that I do not want to sit in front of my computer stalking priceaction. Tp just closes my position regardles of my presence or absense))
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IvanLabrie PRO Alexander_Nikitin
Yes, I agree...unless you have a bot that does this, there's no point.
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