FX:AUDNZD   Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ             CPI             Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ             CPI             Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ             because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ             is only within the game with round about 20%.

Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ             CPI             Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI             to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD             could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday
kmk.msp
10 months ago
Same view fellow trader
AUDNZD Forming Bullish WW Pattern
Reply
robert.zach.7543 kmk.msp
10 months ago
I am a lilttle bit more cautions after the big decline on friday. Maybe a test to new lows below 1.05 and then followed by a short stabilization. But in fact that this coming week is pact with important events from nz and the rbnz is coming after this week then, makes me also thinking about going long now... Thanks for sharing
Reply
kmk.msp robert.zach.7543
10 months ago
yes you are right. Bearish engulfing candle form on friday. Lets see what happens...
Reply
kmk.msp
10 months ago
Long Term Strategy on AUDNZD
Reply
robert.zach.7543 kmk.msp
10 months ago
Hey Buddy! Thanks for your posts :-)! Indeed haha! Nice one! Let's see if we are right ;-)! In my eyes everything lines up - technically and fundamentally! The "Fair Value" currently lies at 1.1350. For the RBNZ - Monetary Policy looks for further rates cuts, while the RBA should stay neutral especially after the solid job growth in 2015. Chinas growth issues aren't a really big deal, but the whole market goes crazy only because growth goes below 7.00%. In my eyes it's not because of the growth, it's because the Chinese Authorities told the population to invest in stocks and after the crash - all the money is gone. Retail Sales will likely fall further, consumer confidence also and at the end the CPI too, because people want to save the last yuan what they still have in the pocket. Anyway, the Australian Dollar adjusted to the sharp decline in commodities and iron ore and coal prices are nearing the normal average. Likely that there is a stabilization soon what triggers the move to the topside, while the El Nino should keep farmers in NZ busy and the RBNZ has to act with 2 more rate cuts with approx. each 25 Basispoints down to 2.00 %. Anyway, finger crosses that we are right and good trades bud!
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out