AUD/NZD BUY - outlook+technical confluence
Both currencies don't have much to offer fundamentally, still NZD has third highest interest rate of majors, but that will come to question in August likely due poor housing and manufacturing data. Aussie is in even worse state, also cut it's rate after poor economic releases, hit by trade wars heavily. Next week we will start with some housing data for Aussie, RBA minutes and Lowe's speech will follow, while NZD is about to release GDP with yearly readings forcasted to rise. However it's maybe even priced in since Q1 is forcasted by exact (0.6%) yearly is forecasted to rise by 0.2%. If that happens it might question a bit RBNZ. All in all volatility is expected.
TECHNICALS: From higher timeframes price looks to be in no-man's land. Right in between to .5 fibs (weekly from last downfall) plus last correction (bull escape from down channel) .5 fib as well co-relating with february's high (1.05 confluence). 50/200 sma's are still bearish on weekly, clearly looking to make new re-test, daily candle is currently re-testing 50sma. I tend to look 9/20 ema's as well since they follow the price and they signal contrarian mode.
What caught my attention in NZD pairs it is unusually weak and it's getting hurt by lower volume, seems there is no interest in NZD currently.
Another confluence point is potential upward channel (look at connection between february and april's high, by pasting the exact line as lower trendline we got perfect channel connecting start point (last low) with this pivot+february's high re-test. Almost perfect right?
It would be ideal to enter on weekly .5 fib breakout which would be clear signal of bull flag pattern + downard correcting channel in this uptrend breakout, but I decided to risk on this support bounce on solid daily/weekly candle.
NOTE: This is my view and should not be taken as advise.
TECHNICALS: From higher timeframes price looks to be in no-man's land. Right in between to .5 fibs (weekly from last downfall) plus last correction (bull escape from down channel) .5 fib as well co-relating with february's high (1.05 confluence). 50/200 sma's are still bearish on weekly, clearly looking to make new re-test, daily candle is currently re-testing 50sma. I tend to look 9/20 ema's as well since they follow the price and they signal contrarian mode.
What caught my attention in NZD pairs it is unusually weak and it's getting hurt by lower volume, seems there is no interest in NZD currently.
Another confluence point is potential upward channel (look at connection between february and april's high, by pasting the exact line as lower trendline we got perfect channel connecting start point (last low) with this pivot+february's high re-test. Almost perfect right?
It would be ideal to enter on weekly .5 fib breakout which would be clear signal of bull flag pattern + downard correcting channel in this uptrend breakout, but I decided to risk on this support bounce on solid daily/weekly candle.
NOTE: This is my view and should not be taken as advise.