AUDUSD scenario's and what to look for

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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The AUDUSD             is correcting a five years bear trend which can be seen on the weekly time frame. A few months ago I showed 0.81 as likely target for this correction on the weekly time frame. According to my analysis 0.81 is the long term fair value for this pair, this doesn't mean that price needs to test this level from here but it would be ideal for longer term trading purposes (have a look at my GBPUSD             analysis up to the Brexit referendum where I mentioned 1.50 to be fair value).
However due to the complex corrective pattern AUDUSD             is currently in on the weekly time frame I used this pair for educational purposes as well in the recent past. There is no confirmation of any kind yet in my view and this pair shows us why we should keep an open mind at all times. Nevertheless a move towards 0.81 is still my preferred scenario until proven otherwise. This however doesn't mean that I'm a buyer in this area or it should be a buy from lower time frames which I suggested earlier this week.

Zooming in on the daily time frame you can see my preferred wave count for the moment. Although I count wave A and B to be over this is no guarantee that the move higher towards 0.81 will happen. Several corrective patterns are still on the table with a triangle correction as my alternative medium term scenario.

The lower time frames need to complete its structure first and the 1 hour time frame will therefore be leading for me in the short term knowing what the higher time frame potential tells us.

I don't find it likely to see a break above 0.76 this week but since we are close to the end of the week that doesn't mean much. However a test of 0.76 followed by a consolidation will indicate more bullish price action to be next. Another strong area is 0.745. So keep an eye on these area's because these area's will be crucial in case we see a triangle consolidation.

So what's the plan?
First of all we still have to deal with a bearish impulse on the 1 hour time frame which isn't invalidated yet, so if we see 0.76 result in a bearish reversal (strong bearish reversal) move to lower time frames for a possible sell trade after a minor consolidation, it is very risky to sell this pair based on that bearish impulse from the 1 hour time frame because to me the risk is too high of an invalidation and the potential risk/reward not good enough for trading.
The other scenario is a consolidation which tells us to buy the bullish continuation.

This might all be a bit confusing, unfortunately I'm not able to prepare a video at the moment but you can always follow your own plan (which we should have at any time) and use this analyses in your advantage. I will try to update as much as possible so it can still help you understand how to look at structure. Once my website is ready we will take these trades together in live daily webinars.

Have a nice weekend and I'll try to be more active again as of next week.


www. facebook             .com/timstuyts

Comment: We saw a reversal slightly below the zone we determined last week (0.76). I'm not interested in the sell yet because I want to see a significant consolidation first which in my view we didn't see yet.
We have to deal with three degrees of structure at the moment.
First the bearish impulse (1 hr time frame) which is still valid (see posts above).
Second we have the bullish impulse of lesser degree, the yellow box shows the potential consolidation for that impulse.
Third we have the bearish move in progress at the moment of the lowest degree for the moment. This can be traded on lower time frames and might be the start of the bearish scenario as presented (see posts above). We adjust when necessary and this is how you can do that with low risk.

Nevertheless my bias hasn't changed yet, I'm just pointing out the three structures that are leading at the moment. Like I said, if you like to sell AUDUSD longer term you have to do that from the lower time frames as I just pointed out. Otherwise the risk of getting whipsawed is significant. If you like to buy AUDUSD longer term like my favorite scenario for now you have to buy it from lower levels.
Comment: This pair might not have been the easiest pair to trade but it showed us perfectly why I was still bullish. Keep an open mind guys at all times because this is a probability game. Let's see whether we take out the high at 0.765. If that happens the bearish impulse is invalidated and looking for intraday buy's will be safer after that.
The chart below still shows the two consolidations and how you could possibly trade it. For the record I didn't trade it because I was simply not able to trade the market at the time. So I couldn't update sooner but me trading and updating will be back to normal at the end of the week.
Comment: A correction is about to start and once that is in progress we can determine what will be next.
Thanks very much Tim, unfortunately for me I recievved a lot of USD at 0.69, and stuck.
Cheers John
Seems to be quite complicated. So I know, I got still a lot to learn. But it looks again very professional to me. I could imagine the correction upside might evolve to a bearish flag. But this wouldn´t fit to level you mentioned for next year. Or could there be a bearish flag and then big move back to 0.81?
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