TimStuyts

USDJPY, little higher then down

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
356 4 9
4 months ago
I have 2 possible wave counts at the moment for the daily structure in USDJPY             . Either way I like to see a last minor leg higher to test 106 before we will see either a significant retrace or reversal for a new low.
Alternative wave count:
snapshot

This wave count suggest that we should see an new bullish impulse that eventually will take out 126.
The other scenario is that we will see a new low for wave 5 shown on the original chart.
Short term however the 1 hour time frame will be leading for me:
snapshot

The sideways move which is in progress looks very corrective and therefore suggest another leg higher.
I will be looking for a bullish continuation. Once that is in place I will be looking for a potential short trade where divergence on lower time frames will give us the first clue.
Updates will follow

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4 months ago
Comment: Comparable to EURJPY and in a bullish extension. I like to see at least a significant retrace and then will determine what's next in terms of the bigger picture. keep in mind that this might extend higher again so wait for continuation before selling (or accept a higher risk)
snapshot
4 months ago
Comment: wave 4 came in the price territory of wave 4 of lesser degree which is a common characteristic. I'm looking for the bearish continuation and only once the third leg lower is in place we can determine what's next in terms of whether we see a new bullish trend or a new low.
snapshot

snapshot
TomPower
4 months ago
Tim. This chart is Bucking the trend big time dude, that thing has rallied about 600 Pips. Can you be sure
Reply
TimStuyts TomPower
4 months ago
I always analyze scenario's and then look for confirmations. So we made the move higher as expected for what I counted to be wave 5 in Orange, now we need to determine whether it has ended or not. That's where we use consolidations for. I look at the 15 min time frame at the moment which looks like a consolidation, so we need either a bullish continuation for a buy or a bearish impulse and then sell after the consolidation. You can do this on all time frames.
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TimStuyts TomPower
4 months ago
Nothing is for sure in trading but by recognizing high probability set-ups we place the odds in our favor. If it is not good enough I simply let it go, that's sometimes hard but I rather not trade than get stopped out. As an analyst you kind of do a lot of work for nothing but if that's the biggest cost of this business we are fine. I posted several analyzes this week and often have 15 to 20 of these analyzes each week. I only need 1 or 2 to become active to make serious money. It is all about risk/reward and probability. So never get biased or too sure of something, analyzing is work, trading is following your rules, if your rules say don't trade, then don't trade no matter how it looks like. At least that's how I run my business and keeps emotions out of it. Hope this helps, let me know if you need anything.
+3 Reply
glaazie PRO
4 months ago
looks nice tim !!

i have 2 scenerios lets see how the down impuls looks like that we probably gonna see ..
the short setup forming looks nice btw

then we may can consider a bullish move
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