AUD/USD Rises on Hotter than Expected AU Inflation
AUD/USD rises today as inflation data from Australia came in higher than anticipated. March CPI accelerated for the first the first time in months (+3.5% y/y), Q1 rose 1% q/q (from +0.6% prior) and on a yearly basis it came in at 3.6%, which was above forecast.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has refrained from raising rates for the past three meetings and has hinted at peak rates, but has not ruled out further hikes and seems far from cuts. Its US peer on the other hand, has pointed to multiple rate cuts this year, despite adopting a conservative approach.
The hotter than expected inflation report makes an RBA pivot less likely and boosts AUD/USD further. It had already made a strong start to the week, since the contraction in US manufacturing activity offered a sign of weakness for the US economy that could help the Fed lower interest rates. The pair tries to take out the EMA200 that could pause the bearish bias and give it the opportunity to challenge the March highs (06668).
However, the immediate upside appears unfriendly, with multiple roadblocks and the Relative Strength Index points to overbought conditions. Furthermore, the recent hawkish repricing around the Fed’s policy path will likely continue to weigh on the pair, while Australia’s Q1 y/y inflation showed further moderation.
As such, AUD/USD is likely to face renewed pressure that can lead to new 2024 lows (0.6362), although sustained weakness towards and beyond 0.6269 does not look easy.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com/uk):
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com/uk/market-commentary/
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com/eu/market-commentary/
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com/au/market-commentary/
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com/markets/market-commentary/
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has refrained from raising rates for the past three meetings and has hinted at peak rates, but has not ruled out further hikes and seems far from cuts. Its US peer on the other hand, has pointed to multiple rate cuts this year, despite adopting a conservative approach.
The hotter than expected inflation report makes an RBA pivot less likely and boosts AUD/USD further. It had already made a strong start to the week, since the contraction in US manufacturing activity offered a sign of weakness for the US economy that could help the Fed lower interest rates. The pair tries to take out the EMA200 that could pause the bearish bias and give it the opportunity to challenge the March highs (06668).
However, the immediate upside appears unfriendly, with multiple roadblocks and the Relative Strength Index points to overbought conditions. Furthermore, the recent hawkish repricing around the Fed’s policy path will likely continue to weigh on the pair, while Australia’s Q1 y/y inflation showed further moderation.
As such, AUD/USD is likely to face renewed pressure that can lead to new 2024 lows (0.6362), although sustained weakness towards and beyond 0.6269 does not look easy.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com/uk/market-commentary/
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com/eu/market-commentary/
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com/au/market-commentary/
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com/markets/market-commentary/
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
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