In a situation like this there are 3 options:
Red: Going long now or after the small red resistance breaks. After the red breaks, i would say chances are like 60%
Black; Waiting for a break up, than seeing a being formed close to the neckline of the and then getting in. This has a chance of around 75%
Blue: False breakout, waiting for that and the bounce up. If we see a small V shape bounce back above the green, odds are maybe 80%
These % are to give an impression, not to show you if it's a sure win or not.
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