The pair has been in a sell off channel since end of January 2018, with trade wars having a particular effect on AUD, as it is a risk-on currency,dependent highly on trade with China. USD, becoming more of a safe haven now, has been on the rise. After hitting the 78.6% fib retracement, we have a bounce. Price action shows the beginning of a potential reverse H&S
divergence is present. A break above the neckline would be the signal (also a confirmed 50% fib of the last sell off), though 100 SMA
comes first and 200 SMA
is close above the neckline and both provide strong resistance. Technically the setup looks good, but the pair is very dependent on the fundamentals and trade tensions in particular. Tonight is AUD monetary minutes, so pay attention to the rhetoric. Alternatively, a bounce trade offers a very good RRR
to short. Next Wednesday is FED day, which good set the next dollar trend. Good Luck!