ForceFollower
Long

AUDUSD Still In the Fork

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Now it's just a debate: if the current up fork is going to hold or fail, as price has crossed it from its upper parallel to the lower one with ease. This market is in a very-long-term down trend, found resistance above 94 and then even below that level. Now it is about to say, whether it's going to stay within the fork or not. It can either turn into an overshoot and go up again or... continue lower toward some support level . If the fork holds, we should see price go up to at least 0.937, otherwise we'll see, if either 38.2% retracement level or prior lows' support is going to hold.

Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex . I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial adivice.
justatrader PRO
2 years ago
Nice clean chart.. But few things to point... If price retraces back to the open of that big bearish candle, its like wiping out all its losses from CPI release.. that would take a really bearish data from the US.. So I think because price touched the LML, we need to see what it will do next. Failure to reach the median line could be indicative of price moving away... either down or sideways.. I'm hoping for 0.932 regions to be reached before price drops out of the LML any further towards 0.92 and 0.91... AUDUSD is definitely an interesting pair this week.
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Thanks for the comment and words of caution. I appreciate it.
I admit the retracement back up to the open of the big bearish candle would be a very bullish sign. I was thinking about it too. But we've seen it in this pair before a couple of times, so I thought the final attempt of the up trend's resumption might be able to do again. However, I agree with you about the bearish symptoms of this pair actually having failed to reach the median line. Although I don't think we'll see it any lower than 0.922 in coming hours, before it makes some bullish move first.
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
We could perhaps see some action now that Weekly S2 was tested.
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Yes. This bearish behaviour runs counter to my expectations. But the market is always right, if it hasn't found its rock bottom yet, it's got keep digging lower.
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Barzvar
2 years ago
Nice Chart , I think she will bulish from 0.9200-0.9225 area .
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ForceFollower Barzvar
2 years ago
Thanks. :-) I agree, that's where I expect this market to find support and then go back up.
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itaskar
2 years ago
In my opinion, it will go no lower than 0,9225 area. Today it reached daily 200ema, 4h 200ema is litlle bit lower(0.9235). I think that it is good price for buy right now...maybe not good time(it can dance few days at this level)
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Thanks for the chart. Yes, it looks more promising for a rally a bit lower, I know. My fork has clearly failed and I'll be watching if it finds solid support in the range of 0.9225-0.9235.
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
What do you mean by failed? With ML's, i've often seen price break LML then move inside to make a lower high and then drop to one of the Swing contact points. Your's seem to be holding on just fine. Unless i'm missing something here...
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
You're right. :-) I'm jumping to conclusions too soon. Let's see, if it manages to get back to the fork.
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alex.a itaskar
2 years ago
Buy after 4H chart confirmation the direction has been completely turned,
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
There you go.. bounced off the W-S2.. Here's how its looking from H1 TF.

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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Very nice indeed, justatrader. You're not just-a-trader, you're a knowledgeable analyst too. :-)
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alex.a
2 years ago
These days, It seems like major influence in Russia and Ukraine. Gold is holding so in my opinion, AUD downward will be limited. Despite China's not so wonderful data, AUD is showing its own recovery, so far. Copper is going up, too
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Due to conflict in Europe, XAUUSD(Gold) isn't going down.
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It won't go up yet its downward would be limited, I presume.
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alex.a alex.a
2 years ago
XAUUSD
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alex.a alex.a
2 years ago
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alex.a
2 years ago
AUDUSD & XAUUSD
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alex.a
2 years ago
Better
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alex.a
2 years ago
Force Follower, I like your analysis all the time with much gratitude, even to provoke my curiosity about you. LoL ~ Getting better each time, I noticed, which means getting clearer each time. Thanks dude ~
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ForceFollower alex.a
2 years ago
Thank you, alex. :-) You're a great analyst, esp. in the area of intermarket relations. So I also appreciate your contribution to my study of AUDUSD.
Yeah, I uphold my bullish stance in AUDUSD, as the aussie continues to be the strongest major currency (although the recent sterling's strengthening may soon wreck havoc in current status quo of the fx markets).
As for your daily chart of gold - isn't it resting on a blue moving average suggesting some kind of balance? Some sideways action seems to be warranted, although, looking at the recent price action, it looks bullish indeed.
So, I can't wait to see how the markets open in an hour...
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
Guys... I think there's something more sinister happening with AUDUSD. The short term trend is showing bullish alright but the big daddy trend is still bearish. I'll update the Aussie chart later today and you'll see the bigger picture.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Is this sliding parallel going to hold?
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justatrader PRO ForceFollower
2 years ago
AUDUSD - Very smartly played
If it is of any help. Also check the linked H4. Wouldn't long until PA confirms a long.
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Thanks for the charts. Sure, I agree with you that the big picture is bearish. This pair's been trading in a range without any clear direction for the last two or three days, which makes it so hard to analyze. Not a clear signal to go long nor short, so I just stay long - my stops haven't been hit yet.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I think the correction is starting to fade. The support below seems to hold well. Now let's see, how much of what I project to happen next is intuition and how much of it I've been just into-wishing. :-)
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Let's see, if we stand a chance of breaking out of the bearish channel, and out of the orange lower box. Is the Texas-T pattern going to mark the reversal as well as the onset of a new rally?
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
If you are still bullish, as I am, here's my scenario:
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
Iam curious here, it fails again to stay above this important slope
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
Current situations looks ugly, I know. It's always darkest before the dawn, so I'm trying to wait it out.
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FaultyKid
2 years ago
I see initial support at 0.9240 and if that breaks straight down to 0.9160.

Gonna wait it out and buy there, if it hits.
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ForceFollower FaultyKid
2 years ago
If you look at a daily time frame, what do you see? :-)
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1808466/audusd-d1-oanda-division1
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
this fork looks prety good, lots of confirmations that is valid, my is unreadable at this time
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
where is your stoploss, below previous lows 0.9201 or last lows 0.9226?
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
The previous one, 0.92. I don't place my stops below an "active" and unconfrimed low. I prefer to have my stops below older lows (or above older highs) - the ones starting the bigger cycle.
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