So let's analyze what happened. Why am I doing this? It's a habit I do is to re-analyze and dissect every trade that didn't work out and see what happened and why I might've missed it.
First, the fact that this pair nose-dived was NOT unexpected. I just wasn't expecting it so soon. If you've read my LONG TERM analysis on this pair (see Related Ideas: "AUDUSD: Analysis, & Why You Should be Looking DOWN"), you'll know that I am VERY on this pair and expect MUCH, MUCH more downside to come. This fact should've have put me on watch for any pattern that suggested prices were heading down....like that last pattern. I did in fact, take that and took SHORT trades on it and held them all the way down to the lower BUT I closed ALL my positions there. In retrospect, watching the price action AND seeing what was happening in the USDCAD pair, I should've realized that there was a HIGH probability this pair was gonna make a break for it down! In hindsight, it was more than likely a case of being too invested in my own analysis to not see what was happening right in front of me.
LESSON: NEVER be so focused on the trees and not see the forest!
Last week, I posted a LONG TERM analysis on this pair and why I think it is VERY and has a long way to go on the downside. You can see that analysis in Related Ideas: "AUDUSD: Analysis, & Why You Should be Looking DOWN".
I also posted recently about these back-to-back patterns you see in the chart above (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #2: AUDUSD - TP1 Hit (+35 pips). So Now What?")
What I wanted to do here is give you a MEDIUM TERM analysis and focus in on what is happening during this consolidation phase this pair is in right now. In other words, how is this consolidation wave going to play out and where the trading opportunities may be.
OVERVIEW (4HR TF)
I see two possible scenarios as to how things will pan out. That does not mean these are the only possible ways things will unfold but just what I think are the most likely.
In this scenario, it's as simple as ABCDE. If this happens, I'll just keep looking for back-to-back patterns.
In this scenario, there are 3 patterns that all support this: a bat, a and a . In addition, there would be an EXTENDED pattern (targets on chart). All 3 patterns would also complete at/near a MAJOR SR Structure.
At this moment, just gotta watch the price action and see what happens. As I state in the chart above, depending on which direction prices go, I'll look to the corresponding scenario.
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If you take any LONG positions, be sure to have firm S/L in place!