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AUD/USD Starting an Upward Impulse

Long
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
United States Fed Funds Rate

In July of 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented an anticipated move by raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, reaching the bracket of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision, aligning with market projections, propelled borrowing costs to their loftiest point since January 2001.

Amidst this decision, policymakers reiterated their commitment to vigilant monitoring of incoming data's implications on the economic outlook. This proactive approach would enable them to make necessary adjustments to the monetary policy stance in case emerging risks could potentially hinder the achievement of both inflation and employment goals. Policymakers emphasized their consideration of a broad spectrum of factors, encompassing labor market conditions, inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, as well as global financial dynamics.

The release of meeting minutes on August 16th revealed that a majority of participants maintained their perspective on considerable upward risks to inflation. This perception suggested a potential requirement for additional tightening of monetary policy.

United States Inflation Rate

In July 2023, the annual inflation rate in the United States picked up momentum, reaching 3.2%, a rise from June's 3%, albeit slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. This shift marked an interruption in the twelve consecutive months of decrease, largely attributed to base effects. Notably, a year prior, inflation had initiated a descent from its peak of 9.1%.

During July 2023, the energy sector saw a decrease of 12.5% in costs, a less pronounced drop compared to June's 16.7%. This decline was less severe for fuel oil (-26.5% compared to -36.6%), gasoline (-19.9% compared to -26.5%), and utility gas service (-13.7% compared to -18.6%). Conversely, the cost of apparel increased by 3.2% (up from 3.1%), along with a larger uptick in transportation services costs, which rose to 9% (compared to 8.2%).

On the other hand, electricity prices experienced a more modest increase of 3%, a decrease from June's 5.4%. Inflation rates decelerated for food (4.9% compared to 5.7%), shelter (7.7% compared to 7.8%), and new vehicles (3.5% compared to 4.1%). Medical services witnessed a decline in cost by 1.5% (as opposed to the previous -0.8%), and prices for used cars and trucks dropped by 5.6% (compared to the previous -5.2%).

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 4.7% in July from June's 4.8%, slightly below the projected 4.8%.

United States GDP Growth Rate

In the second quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy exhibited a robust annualized growth of 2.4% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 2% expansion of the previous period and exceeding market predictions of 1.8%. This revelation emerged from the advance estimate.

A notable driver of this growth was the sharp acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, which soared by 7.7% (compared to the earlier 0.6%). This surge was led by a notable recovery in equipment investment, which posted a remarkable 10.8% growth (rebounding from the previous -8.9%), and intellectual property products, which increased by 3.9% (up from 3.1%). Additionally, private inventories contributed positively to growth, adding 0.14 percentage points, a notable reversal from the negative contribution of -2.14 in Q1.

In contrast, consumer spending experienced a significant slowdown, registering at 1.6% growth (in contrast to the previous 4.2%). This deceleration, despite surpassing market expectations, reflected a moderation in inflation and continued tightness in the labor market. While spending on goods witnessed a sharp deceleration (0.7% compared to the earlier 6%), expenditure on services remained robust, growing at 2.1% (compared to 3.2%).

Public expenditure increased at a much softer pace, posting a growth of 2.6% (compared to 5%). However, net trade exerted a negative impact on growth, subtracting 0.12 percentage points, primarily due to a 10.8% drop in exports and a comparatively smaller decline of 7.8% in imports. Notably, residential investment continued its downward trajectory, declining by 4.2% (compared to the previous -4%).

United States Unemployment Rate

In July 2023, the unemployment rate in the United States experienced a marginal decline, settling at 3.5%, compared to June's 3.6%. This figure notably surpassed market expectations, which had anticipated a rate of 3.6%. The ranks of the unemployed saw a reduction of 116,000 individuals, bringing the total to 5.841 million. In tandem, employment levels displayed a positive trajectory, rising by 268,000, culminating in a total of 161.262 million employed individuals.

The broader measure of unemployment, encompassing those who desire employment but have ceased searching, as well as those working part-time due to the inability to secure full-time positions, was indicated by the U-6 unemployment rate. This gauge fell to 6.7% in July, a decrease from June's 6.9%.

The labor force participation rate, a key indicator of workforce engagement, remained stable at 62.6%. Importantly, this rate held its ground at the highest level recorded since March 2020.

United States Current Account

In the first quarter of 2023, the United States registered a current account deficit amounting to $219.3 billion. This figure stood higher than the upwardly revised deficit of $216.2 billion noted in the preceding quarter, as well as surpassing expectations of a $217.5 billion deficit. This deficit, equivalent to 3.3% of the current-dollar Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflects the balance of trade and financial flows.

Examining the components, the secondary income gap expanded to $49.6 billion from the prior $40.7 billion. This shift was propelled by a decrease in receipts attributed to general government transfers, particularly fines and penalties, while payments increased due to a surge in private transfers, primarily insurance-related transfers.

Meanwhile, the primary income surplus narrowed to $31.3 billion, a decrease from the previous $38.1 billion. This shift resulted from a scenario where payments outpaced receipts. The surge in payments was mainly attributed to interest on loans and deposits, owing to elevated short-term interest rates.

In contrast, the goods and services gap contracted to $201 billion from the previous $213.5 billion. This was influenced by a surge in exports, notably of medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical products, along with goods transferred through the Presidential Drawdown Authority. Imports, on the other hand, experienced a reduction, largely due to a decrease in petroleum and related products, as well as chemicals.

United States Federal Government Budget

In 2022, it is anticipated that the United States will exhibit a Government Budget deficit that corresponds to 5.8% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.

Australia Interest Rate

During its August meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the decision to maintain the cash rate at the level of 4.1%. This move marked the second consecutive month in which the central bank opted for a rate pause, defying the market's consensus which had anticipated a 25 basis points rate hike.

Although acknowledging a moderation in cost pressures within the country, the RBA emphasized that despite this moderation, the inflation rate of 6% remained elevated. The board underscored the importance of ensuring inflation returns to the targeted range of 2% to 3% within a reasonable timeframe, and it noted that there might be a need for additional monetary tightening.

The RBA projected that inflation is anticipated to reach around 3.25% by the conclusion of 2024, eventually returning to the intended range by late 2025. Additionally, the central bank forecasted Australia's GDP growth to hover around 1.75% throughout 2024, while the unemployment rate is predicted to gradually rise to about 4.5% by late the following year.

In conjunction with the cash rate decision, the RBA also maintained the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.0%.

Australia Inflation Rate

Australia's inflation rate experienced a decline, reaching 6.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023. This figure was lower than the 7.0 percent recorded in the previous period and fell short of market predictions of 6.2 percent. This drop, the lowest since the third quarter of 2022, was primarily attributed to a deceleration in goods inflation, which stood at 5.8 percent compared to the 7.6 percent seen in Q1. Noteworthy trends included a slowdown in the inflation of food (7.5% vs. 8.0%), furniture (6.9% vs. 9.0%), appliances (1.4% vs. 4.6%), and clothing (0.3% vs. 3.2%). Automotive fuel prices also exhibited a decline (-3.6% vs. 1.1%).

Conversely, services inflation surged to 6.3 percent, marking its highest rate since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2001. This increase was driven by elevated prices in various service categories, including rents (6.7% vs. 4.9%), restaurant meals (6.5% vs. 7.0%), holiday travel (12.2% vs. 17.1%), and insurance (14.2% vs. 8.8%). Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year growth of 5.9 percent, representing the slowest expansion rate over the past year. Despite this moderation, the rate remains significantly above the central bank's target range of 2 to 3 percent.

Australia GDP Growth Rate

Australia's economy experienced a 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in the first quarter of 2023, falling short of market expectations which had anticipated a 0.3 percent increase. This growth figure follows an upwardly revised 0.6 percent rise observed in the previous quarter (Q4). While this marks the sixth consecutive period of economic expansion, the rate of growth in Q1 was the most subdued within this sequence.

Notably, household consumption exhibited a relatively modest increase, rising by 0.2 percent compared to 0.3 percent in Q4. This restrained growth in consumer spending was influenced by sustained cost pressures and elevated interest rates. The household savings ratio notably declined to 3.7 percent, marking its lowest level since the second quarter of 2008, down from the previous reading of 4.5 percent.

Additionally, the pace of government spending growth decelerated significantly, with a growth rate of 0.1 percent compared to the 0.6 percent seen in the previous quarter. The net trade contribution turned negative as well, as exports (1.1%) recorded a slower rate of increase than imports (3.2%).

On the other hand, private investment demonstrated a positive trend, rising by 1.4 percent (compared to a -0.9 percent contraction previously). This increase was bolstered by gains in machinery and equipment, non-dwelling and dwelling construction, as well as intellectual property products. Public investment also saw growth of 3.0 percent (compared to a -1.2 percent decline previously), attributed to rises in state and local government investment, state and local corporations' investment, and non-defense investments.

Over the course of the year, the Australian economy's growth rate amounted to 2.3 percent, a decrease from the 2.7 percent expansion recorded in the previous quarter (Q4).

Australia Unemployment Rate

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate experienced an increase, reaching 3.7 percent in July compared to 3.5 percent in the prior month. This figure surpassed market expectations, which had predicted a rate of 3.6 percent. Notably, this rise indicates the highest unemployment level since April.

The number of individuals classified as unemployed saw a notable uptick, rising by 35.6 thousand to a total of 541 thousand. This increase was driven by an uptrend in those actively seeking full-time employment, which rose by 21.9 thousand to reach 349.5 thousand. Concurrently, individuals in search of part-time work increased by 13.8 thousand to 191.5 thousand.

In contrast, the employment figures for the same period took an unexpected downturn. Employment experienced an unexpected decrease of 14.6 thousand to reach a total of 14.03 million individuals. This decline was contrary to market predictions of a 15 thousand gain, and marked a reversal from the positive 31.6 thousand change observed in June. Notably, full-time employment experienced a decrease of 24.2 thousand, reaching a total of 9.84 million, while part-time employment rose by 9.6 thousand to 4.19 million.

The participation rate, which reflects the proportion of the working-age population actively engaged in the labor force, slightly decreased to 66.7 percent in July from 66.8 percent in June. This figure fell short of market consensus expectations, which had anticipated a rate of 66.8 percent.

Simultaneously, the underemployment rate, which indicates the proportion of employed individuals seeking more hours of work, remained stable at 6.4 percent.

Furthermore, the monthly hours worked across all job categories increased by 4 million, or 0.2 percent, reaching a total of 1,952 million.

Australia Current Account

Australia's current account surplus saw a widening to AUD 12.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023, an increase from the revised AUD 11.7 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, this figure fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a surplus of AUD 15 billion. The expansion in the current account surplus was driven by a larger trade surplus, although this positive effect was partly counterbalanced by a net primary income deficit.

The surplus in the goods and services account rose to AUD 41.1 billion in Q1 from AUD 39.0 billion in Q4. This uptick was primarily attributed to a greater trade surplus, with import prices declining more significantly than export prices.

On the other hand, the net secondary account gap narrowed to AUD 0.2 billion in Q1 from AUD 0.4 billion in the previous quarter.

In contrast, the net primary income deficit increased, reaching AUD 28.5 billion in Q1, up from AUD 27.0 billion in Q4. This change was driven by income credits, which fell to AUD 21.5 billion from their previous record high.

Australia Money Supply M1

In Australia, the money supply M1 experienced a decline, decreasing from 1629.59 AUD Billion in May 2023 to 1621.07 AUD Billion in June of the same year.

📈 The scenario I am playing out assumes continue of increases in current week. I do not exclude changing the scenario in case of a sudden change in the market situation. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, In case of a change of outlook I will publish an update in the next post

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