Technician
Short

(J) Trade 14 : Renewed downside pressures possible #forex

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
8319 152 134
Update: Stopped out
Profit= -$600 .
Balance= 31 017 - 600 = $30 417
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Trade 14: SHORTED AUDUSD             @0.7680
Trade Status: Active
S.L @ 0.7730
T1 0.7600
T2 0.7535

For $30 592 Balance, Position size = 1.2 lot ~ 2% risk of capital

===========================================================================

Reasoning
  • Retest of recent horziontal borken support
  • Descending resistance
  • Broken rising trend line
  • Multiple pin bar on retest
  • Negative sentiment surrounding markets, may support lower yielders.

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Wish me luck and best of luck for everyone.

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Journey to 100 Trades: Rules and Guidelines #forex


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Technician
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Perfect set up. Easy targets.
+1 Reply
Im in \o/
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sheepskyfx sheepskyfx
thanks for sharing :)
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good luck..in on this
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It is very nice of you to share your trades with us. Thanks a million.
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Technician TOP gilbarbosa
Thanks
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Is the trade active? Looks like I missed it- but still thanks Technician for the sharing!
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the (1 Day) timeframe for this pair looks like its just consolidating in its resistance levels, does this not have an impact? i am a new trader so its a question to learn more :)
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I am not sure what do you mean, plz post chart in the comment to calrify
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HussamAli Technician
Just looked at it again whilst making the chart. Makes sense now. Thank you though!
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We had a second opportunity to short, the price retested 0.7680 again
+1 Reply
TahirAli Technician
I missed the first entry but got filled at the second one.
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about your risk, 2% on each trade or together on both of them? PM answer, pls...
Thanks
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Technician TOP DanielKovacik
I risk around 2% of my capital on each trade.
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very nice set up,thanks a lot!.
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Very nice settup. Im with you :) Thanks!
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Hi Tech, Thanks for sharing the set ups. Your updates helps me in understanding about the trade :) Also, do you concentrate on one trade at a time? If multiple how you manage your risk (the 2%)? Just for my understanding about the money management...
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Was stopped out yesterday, too tight stop. Have re entered.
Great set up!
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I'm in!
Mr.Technician
Good luck
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not sure you re right
+1 Reply
i'm in, thanks Technician...:)
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it is climbing up! this is BULL RUN
AUDUSD Impulse was made by Yellen )
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where is your SL? )
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.77300
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Lets see ... i am in for my first trade.
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very nice analysis
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The previous support is also 76.4% fib retr!
snapshot
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it`s not moving..
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DevonMerancio cipri.blaga
wait until US open
+2 Reply
Very good setup Technician, Good Luck :)
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AUDUSD



new demand zone
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No_more_Post No_more_Post
RBR pattern

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el_g No_more_Post
What is RBR?
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There are four common structures that are used to identify supply & demand levels on forex charts:
1) Drop- Base- Rally
2) Rally-Base-Drop
3) Rally-Base-Rally
4) Drop-Base-Drop
+2 Reply
Prome PRO No_more_Post
this demand zone is not new! It was tested twice :)
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Correct, Coz I think the previous supply zone was reset.
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guys its just at the resistance level of the downside trent. just look what happen. i think he will go back down. if he breaks out its the sl that holds us from big loses.. ;)
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Nobody can answer this , wait for Mr Market.
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Tijmen_K No_more_Post
you have a point. its never a sure thing.. we will see what the market brings.
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No_more_Post No_more_Post
AUDUSD


Next few pips I will put SL to BE, so after that I will have a free trade.
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No_more_Post No_more_Post
I already manual closed +9 Pips
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hope this is a fake breakout. :P
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I hope so,
Sorry If my post opposite your plan.

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Tijmen_K No_more_Post
no problem everyone has his own plans :D
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The future of this trade depends a lot on the US news that is coming out in the coming minutes
+1 Reply
Tijmen_K DevonMerancio
do you have a link or somthing where i can see that ?
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moneymaking Tijmen_K
Google forex factory. Click on calendar and you'll see all the upcoming news this week and the next coming week. Hope this helps :)
+2 Reply
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#closed
+1 Reply
Tijmen_K DevonMerancio
thank you guys :D
+1 Reply
No_more_Post DevonMerancio
Thank you so much.
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No_more_Post No_more_Post
AUDUSD


If this level OK to Short.
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DevonMerancio DevonMerancio
more important news to come out in 10 minutes
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Elliot waves confirm it. ABCD pattern ending right now!
Bearish ABCDE after 5 waves
+1 Reply
sudersanrao CherryLava
Hi Cherry,
Your Elliot Analysis is Beautiful.Could you from where,we can learn Basics of Elliot wave.?
I Checked elliotwave.com, International Guy, they are trying to enrol for their classes,which is very Costly.
Thx. Rao
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CherryLava sudersanrao
Thanks but I'm no expert. Pm sent.
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sudersanrao CherryLava
Thanks.
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sudersanrao CherryLava
Hi Cherry,
I think ur Trade is active.
Good Luck.
Rao.
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FutureMeDead CherryLava
The ABCDE labels cannot be used here. The rise from your fifth wave low must be i,ii,iii,iv,v of a diagonal OR W,X,Y,X,Z. I do not disagree with your forecast, just stating the labels are used incorrectly. Also, try not to ignore price action, such as the price action above your circle wave 1, it is part of a larger wave pattern. Once again, not picking on you, I appreciate Ellioticians as we are family! * 10 years of living and breathing Elliott.
+1 Reply
CherryLava FutureMeDead
Thank you for the constructive criticism. The abcd pattern is very confusing. Perhaps you would publish more of your ideas so I can learn from them. Thanks. Followed*
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Thanks for sharing! Is this still Valid? As I missed this trade, however if it still is valid i can enter now.
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sheepskyfx anwar.mashni
go in you still in time
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anwar.mashni sheepskyfx
don't know, that pinbar seems dangerous..
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moneymaking anwar.mashni
Hey anwar, since we have gotten a 4 hr bullish candle close above the descending resistance and the previous support. I would be smart to stay away from this.
+1 Reply
anwar.mashni moneymaking
that is what I was thinking. Thank you.
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waiting Technician to give us some updates
+1 Reply
I am still short as stop loss is still in place.
+3 Reply
cipri.blaga Technician
I must say. I like this guy :))
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Nickmail Technician
so where is the downside pressure?
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it will go down on Asian market, good luck to everyone!
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There is a divergence in H1 chart. I think price go down soon...
+2 Reply
Great call, I have been stalking this retest of the lower channel line to add to my low position. We are currently beneath the median line of an old pitchfork.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Technician TOP HamzaLeith
Great to hear from you hamza
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HamzaLeith Technician
Likewise brother. Your road to 100 is impressive and very educating. Great way of helping starting traders, thanks.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP HamzaLeith
Thanks . I am being attacked from time to time though, i dont know whats the intention. I hope that who dont like it, ignore it. am just publishing my trades its for me not for anyone else.
+7 Reply
HamzaLeith Technician
Attacked by whom? Haters will always hate. I don't see that many experienced and professional traders like yourself being so clear and (even though they are your trades) helpful towards others. Ignoring the haters is the best to do. Besides your idea's speak for themselves and those of us who are actually serious about trading on this website notice this and support you. Please keep on doing what you do for those who are genuinely interested (I am sure they are many).
+7 Reply
Technician TOP HamzaLeith
Thanks bro, it was just a sigh, will keep doing what i am doing for sure. Thanks again,
+8 Reply
CIG Technician
It's very easy...Those who don't like it should not follow. I appreciate your postings, which you could well have kept to yourself. As a newbie, I have learned a lot from them - both wins and losses. How else does one learn? Trade on, I'll be watching and learning. Thank you very much.
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Thanks :) . I hope that one day we will have a feature in tradingview to publish only for followers.
+4 Reply
TahirAli Technician
Plus the feature to block unwanted visitors.
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Yes. looking for this to be implemented in the future.
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LucyW Technician
We like you ,Sir. You are the best!!!
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Thanks Lucy
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let people that attack and shout put up or shut up you brave to take this challenge on and help so many... well done
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
snapshot
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Very reasonable trade. But why is sl 0.7730?
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most likely because its clear @ that point that its a breakout
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tcas Tijmen_K
I just want to say that agree with moving down but it's very possible before price touch 0.7730. In my opinion more reasonable sl a little higher 0.7750
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if the price goes higher then 0.7730 its clear to "ME" that its a breakout and the price rises again.. its my opinion so i think this sl is a good 1
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Probably if it breaks highs yeah, it can go much higher. But who knows :) .
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Technician TOP Technician
We are not forecaster, we are traders, right?
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tcas Technician
Of cause right:) at this moment there's a good 4h TL which goes through 0.7746 and it can be a good level to protect SL.
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snapshot


just to make my opinion clear :P
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There is a possible bearish three drives as well, hope it will succeed.
snapshot
+2 Reply
HamzaLeith Technician
Awesome
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Technician TOP Technician
worst scenario is to touch stop loss and move lower
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Tijmen_K Technician
Nice! dindt see that one :D another lesson thanks !
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Hoping for 1.271 extension to hold , stop loss just 2 pips above it, so this is my biggest concern.
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Tijmen_K Technician
ye indeed... we will see.
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Tijmen_K Technician
but that seems like an uptrent to. am i right?
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Only on the hourly, on the four-hour we remain down trend.
+1 Reply
FutureMeDead Technician
If its not a three drives, it is an EW leading diagonal wave 1 (first wave to the upside). Either way, a correction is due near the 61.8% of this rise at .7637.
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NeshoMarinov FutureMeDead
Also there is bearish Gartley pattern on H1 chart
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iznogood Technician
we also have bearish WW & fibo confluence @0.7715... let see what happens
snapshot
+1 Reply
Good luck
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iznogood Technician
I have already taken your setup, now i'm looking the price action.
Tech, you fills me with confidence.
-1 Reply
HamzaLeith iznogood
Ratio trading is most powerful when markets go into consolidation, I don't trade patterns but still use them to add confidence in distinguishing between corrections and impulses. Amazing how all the different technical analysis tools add up.
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iznogood HamzaLeith
That's Right Sir...;)
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NeshoMarinov HamzaLeith
The pattern are extremly powerful on M30 and above. The key is patience and money management.
+2 Reply
anwar.mashni NeshoMarinov
well said
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iznogood iznogood
hit our SL@ 0.7730 and then price hit exactly my red arrow!!!
i'm very disappointed.
snapshot
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I have placed a similar setup.
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Ahmer Ahmer
AUDUSD Short bias
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Tech, you are the best man.
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I'm with you:) Sell 0.7710, sl 0.7750, tp 0.7620
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If this news is good for AUD it will likely be enough to make it hit our stop loss and then fall back down which is our worst case scenerio
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Technician TOP DevonMerancio
Yeah we are very close to stop loss, but its better to be stopped out then moving your stop loss and changing your previous plan.
+1 Reply
el_g DevonMerancio
Worst case scenario is to lose all trading capital. This is one trade, and if it's a loss, it's one step closer to a win.
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seems like has stopped at MA 800
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considering the really good AUD news, and the fact that it still wasn't enough to hit our sl, I still have faith in this!!
+2 Reply
DevonMerancio anwar.mashni
agreed, I'm more confident now
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el_g anwar.mashni
are you still in this trade?
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Wish the best for everyone. We need to concentrate on the longer run and to preserve capital and grow it slowly. The good news is that i am already positive, with slightly above 31k balance before this trade.
+2 Reply
SL was hit
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Update: Stopped out
Profit= -$600 .
Balance= 31 017 - 600 = $30 417
-1 Reply
URIFX Technician
I am too. Look for the next.
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kuehtiaw Technician
bullish trend next?
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I am not going to speculate on that yet.
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kuehtiaw Technician
ok..waiting for other
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Stop executed.
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LucyW LucyW
Correction: SL was executed.
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Hi Tech,
Though Stopped out,we are Learning Good Lessons.
Forex : No single Rule Plays. You are going by certain Rules,which will be 75% +ve.
No One Guides Like You. Waiting for the 15th Trade.
Rao.
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Still bearish in my book
snapshot
+1 Reply
ofcourse.. hes going down now
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broke out the small up trent.. and found out that its a resistance level. i think these are good points to short again.
snapshot
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I believe this failed setup is very similar to the following:
NZDUSD: Presenting A Short Setup

I've been following you for quite a while and I learnt a lot from you - failed setups included; one thing I'd like to share with you is that you seem to like to short the pin bar after a strong renounce from a downtrend. I have the impression from backtesting your chart that this kind of setup has a lower success rate. I could be wrong, but I thought you might like some critical feedback.
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CherryLava Toutatis_4179
NOT a failed setup. Just tight stop loss.
Bearish ABCDE after 5 waves
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Tijmen_K CherryLava
Indeed im on a short again
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TahirAli CherryLava
Not a tight stop just pure bad luck.This is called "Hater's curse".
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Toutatis_4179 CherryLava
Well, if you put your stop loss far enough, then there is no failed setup in the world.
+2 Reply
Stop was nice for this idea. I had another idea and my stop was 0.7750
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well, i did make some profit after all ^^
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This trade should have been a winner, mismanaged trade. I will write a review for the trade to explain why.
+2 Reply
TahirAli Technician
This trade gave me at least three more opportunities to re enter once I got stopped out but I think I was low in confidence.
First when it broke the main upward trend line.(This was the trend line which stopped us out) .
Second when the pair broke out of a bear flag.(Watch 15 minutes chart around 0.7640 area).
Third (The easiest one) Polarity Principle (Old support becomes a resistance now)
when it broke the support which I think was Tp1(see the two shooting stars in 15 minutes chart a clear sign of rejection) it was too easy to enter in it there and make 80 pips.
But there is always a tomorrow.
Next day and next trade.
Happy trading for every one.
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TahirAli TahirAli
Sorry I forgot to thank you for all of your hard work and efforts.
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TahirAli TahirAli
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KuQ4h1gk/
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TahirAli TahirAli