AUD/USD maintains same range
The second half of Thursday’s session was relatively calm for the Australian Dollar, as the pair was fluctuating near the lower boundary of a two-week channel. The pair spiked 25 pips early in this session until the strong resistance of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 0.7595 sent the pair for another decline.
The prevalence of the aforementioned channel might mean a soon test of the more dominant descending channel in force since early September. The Aussie’s movement during the past few days suggest that this scenario might occur, thus pressuring the rate for a movement sideways during the following two sessions.
By and large, an upside target for today is the 0.7595 area, while the nearest support, apart from the channel line, is provided by the weekly S1 at 0.7550.
The prevalence of the aforementioned channel might mean a soon test of the more dominant descending channel in force since early September. The Aussie’s movement during the past few days suggest that this scenario might occur, thus pressuring the rate for a movement sideways during the following two sessions.
By and large, an upside target for today is the 0.7595 area, while the nearest support, apart from the channel line, is provided by the weekly S1 at 0.7550.
Comment:
The Australian Dollar breached a three-month descending channel on Monday.
The rate remained near its upper boundary for the most session until better-than-expected Australian Retail Sales pushed the rate for a 34-pip surge within the following two hours. The rate peaked near the weekly R1 at 0.7652 and remained near this area by mid-Tuesday.
Meanwhile, there is still some potential up to the 0.7670 mark where the upper boundary of the dominant ascending channel is located; it could be realised in this session. However, the bearish sentiment should prevail in the market during the following 24 hours.
The nearest support is formed by the monthly and weekly PPs, the 55– and 200-hour SMA near 0.7600—an area where the bottom boundary of a short-term channel is located.
The Australian Dollar breached a three-month descending channel on Monday.
The rate remained near its upper boundary for the most session until better-than-expected Australian Retail Sales pushed the rate for a 34-pip surge within the following two hours. The rate peaked near the weekly R1 at 0.7652 and remained near this area by mid-Tuesday.
Meanwhile, there is still some potential up to the 0.7670 mark where the upper boundary of the dominant ascending channel is located; it could be realised in this session. However, the bearish sentiment should prevail in the market during the following 24 hours.
The nearest support is formed by the monthly and weekly PPs, the 55– and 200-hour SMA near 0.7600—an area where the bottom boundary of a short-term channel is located.
Comment:
As already expected, the Australian Dollar was dominated by bears during the previous 24 hours. The Aussie bounced off the weekly R1 at 0.7652 and then managed to test the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 0.76.
The bearish sentiment was also strengthened early in the morning when Australia released worse-than-expected GDP data. This movement south was finalised with a retracement from the descending channel which was breached on Monday.
Technical indicators demonstrate that the Aussie has started to recover from its recent fall. However, given the strong resistance of the 100-, 55– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly and monthly PPs in the 0.7595/0.7610 area, bulls might be forced to give up their positions, thus sending the pair for another decline.
As already expected, the Australian Dollar was dominated by bears during the previous 24 hours. The Aussie bounced off the weekly R1 at 0.7652 and then managed to test the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 0.76.
The bearish sentiment was also strengthened early in the morning when Australia released worse-than-expected GDP data. This movement south was finalised with a retracement from the descending channel which was breached on Monday.
Technical indicators demonstrate that the Aussie has started to recover from its recent fall. However, given the strong resistance of the 100-, 55– and 200-hour SMAs, the weekly and monthly PPs in the 0.7595/0.7610 area, bulls might be forced to give up their positions, thus sending the pair for another decline.
Comment:
The strong resistance of the 100-, 55– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 0.7576/0.7607 area sent the Australian Dollar for a decline on Wednesday. This fall was slightly hindered by not stopped at the weekly S1.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie had reached its six-month low of 0.7522 and was located near the weekly S2 by mid-Thursday. Thus, the rate had fallen 50-pips after testing the aforementioned resistance cluster.
By and large, it is expected that bears might soon exhaust their strength and allow for a recovery. The scope of this upward movement, however, is yet unclear.
It is likely that the pair is pushed towards the weekly S1 or the bottom boundary of the breached channel at 0.7558 and 0.7580, respectively.
The strong resistance of the 100-, 55– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 0.7576/0.7607 area sent the Australian Dollar for a decline on Wednesday. This fall was slightly hindered by not stopped at the weekly S1.
As apparent on the chart, the Aussie had reached its six-month low of 0.7522 and was located near the weekly S2 by mid-Thursday. Thus, the rate had fallen 50-pips after testing the aforementioned resistance cluster.
By and large, it is expected that bears might soon exhaust their strength and allow for a recovery. The scope of this upward movement, however, is yet unclear.
It is likely that the pair is pushed towards the weekly S1 or the bottom boundary of the breached channel at 0.7558 and 0.7580, respectively.
Comment:
The movement of the Australian Dollar on Thursday was not influenced by technical indicators that were located in the oversold region, as it managed to edge even lower and reach the weekly S2 at 0.7508. As a result, the Aussie set up a new six-month low.
During the first part of the day, the pair entered a minor period of consolidation. This lack of movement was slightly altered mid-session when the US published its labour data. Impact of this data release, however, was not significant, as the Aussie appreciated only 10 pips within the first minute after the release.
By and large, it is likely that it moves towards the 100– and 200-hour SMAs located circa 0.7575. Given that the 55-hour SMA and the weekly S1 are located closer, the Aussie might hinder or even halt near this area.
The movement of the Australian Dollar on Thursday was not influenced by technical indicators that were located in the oversold region, as it managed to edge even lower and reach the weekly S2 at 0.7508. As a result, the Aussie set up a new six-month low.
During the first part of the day, the pair entered a minor period of consolidation. This lack of movement was slightly altered mid-session when the US published its labour data. Impact of this data release, however, was not significant, as the Aussie appreciated only 10 pips within the first minute after the release.
By and large, it is likely that it moves towards the 100– and 200-hour SMAs located circa 0.7575. Given that the 55-hour SMA and the weekly S1 are located closer, the Aussie might hinder or even halt near this area.
The steady movement sideways which was apparent in the market last week was disrupted mid-Friday when the Australian Dollar surged up to the 0.7640 mark.
The upper boundary of a two-week channel is also located at this mark. The pair then made a retracement from the previously-breached channel and the weekly PP prior to appreciating slightly one more time.
It is likely that bears take the upper hand during the following trading hours until the intersection of the 100– and 55-hour SMAs near 0.7585 is reached.
By and large, the rate is expected to appreciate during this week in line with the prevailing channel up. The most likely upside barrier for the following session is the weekly R1 at 0.7652.