TimStuyts

AUDUSD tradeplan FOMC (education of keeping an open mind)

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
514 18 14
5 months ago
I updated AUDUSD             this week several times for a sell opportunity. This morning I mentioned that I was looking for another leg higher to complete a 3 wave correction. However we saw a leg lower and as a result of that I don't like the structure at the moment because now we also have 3 legs lower on lower time frames. For my original post see below:
AUDUSD according to plan, follow up


So I decided to share my top down analyses once again and I slightly changed the monthly 1-2 inner wave structure but that is not relevant for now. However some of you might notice that, so that's why I mention it.

Monthly
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I'm looking for a wave 4 completion and I determined two high potential zones by means of the blue horizontal dotted lines. Ideally we see wave 4 extend a little higher, reverse out of that zone and move lower for wave 5 (the zone shown by means of the blue dotted horizontal lines on the bottom of the chart).I like to have a bullish and bearish scenario so I can adjust easily as long as structure remains leading in what bias to trade.

Daily:
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Last week I counted the move lower as an impulse and I still favor that. However not all guidelines are met and some are actually showing the bearish momentum to be a strong correction and not an impulse. I won't go into too much detail why I say that because it will most likely only be confusing. Key is that we need to keep an open bias at all time and only enter a trade after a 'ideal' set-up.

4 hour
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This is the time frame that will give us the first clue, If we continue lower breaking below the lower structure line we should continue to look for consolidations and opportunities to sell the continuation. If we however see a break higher we most likely will see some resistance in the blue zone. Once we see a consolidation we can buy the bullish continuation.

Key to understand is that the higher time frames suggest more bearish price action to expect for that wave 5 lower. The lower time frames indicate the possibility for wave 4 to be in place. However if we don't get the sell set-up we know what we might expect once price starts to move higher. If that happens we can adjust and look for bullish momentum , consolidation and buy the continuation.

updates will follow by means of an update of this post because real time examples make way more sense than textbook examples that almost never happen in real trading, so follow me for notifications about this post.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvmWTm4fcl8

5 months ago
Comment: AUDUSD is making the reversal and let's see whether this will be the start with FOMC on the agenda later today.
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5 months ago
Comment: AUDUSD didn't make that move higher I was hoping for after the buy. However the first entry still ended up with R/R 3/1. No I'm looking for a bearish continuation and use my bearish outlook again in terms of levels. I'll wait for the consolidation and then sell. If it reverses I have to let it go for now.
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5 months ago
Comment: Short term we might see a bullish trade opportunity, If it moves lower from here I let it go and re-evaluate.
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5 months ago
Trade active: Last Friday I got triggered in the buy and due to the opening gap of this week I placed stop at break even.
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5 months ago
Comment: I deleted the wave count for now because it is not ideal in combination with how price moves at the moment. Nevertheless due to the fact that I expect this consolidation to continue a little longer I will be looking for buy trades from lower time frames after minor consolidations towards at least 0.76 but likely even higher.
Price should not move below 0.73 before we reach the minimum target at 0.76. These are relatively safe trades due to structure and the current market dynamic (if you buy after a minor consolidation). Keep an eye on the double zero levels (0.7400, 0.7500) in those consolidations for pullbacks when looking for a short term buy.
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4 months ago
Comment: Special delivery for johnm600. Although we saw a very strong move lower as a result of Brexit where dollar buying was popular I think this correction on weekly time frame hasn't finished yet. This post was all about keeping an open mind and that's what we should do at all times. The dynamic of this pairs tells me that we very well might see another leg higher towards 0.81 or slightly higher. In terms of trading this structure, focus on lower time frames for a clear impulse and consolidation. (1 hour tf is leading for me when looking for a potential buy) Don't enter too soon because you might get whipsawed. So only if the current impulse will be followed by a consolidation look for buys. However the best Aussie pair to trade is AUDNZD in my view and some of my long term pending buy orders have been filled in that pair. Updates will follow but like I said that will most likely be next week.
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SkyrEk
5 months ago
Nice mate, i'm on this as well. .7330 is 50% fibo level for this year. (Double bottom formed there)
+1 Reply
TimStuyts SkyrEk
5 months ago
Good trading to you!
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SkyrEk TimStuyts
5 months ago
same to u:)
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TimStuyts SkyrEk
5 months ago
Thanks! The trade I took from that 5 min tf is at break even. Would be nice to see some dollar weakness;-)
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SkyrEk TimStuyts
5 months ago
I will be expecting that from FOMC later ;)
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johnm600
5 months ago
I do appreciate your diligent wave count attempts.
You did manage to get and A,B,C in orange as a 3,3,5
I would love to think 0.78 is 4, your valley b @ .781 is minor 1 of 5, and the recent peak @ ,749 is minor 2 of 5.
Cheers
John
Reply
TimStuyts johnm600
5 months ago
Hello John. The key to good wave counts is to keep an open mind since it is no exact science. There are only a few rules and the rest are guidelines. So the wave counts are often indicative and key is to focus on the impulse. An impulse never comes in one wave. It will always be a wave A (b consolidation) and then C, or 1 (2 consolidation) then 3 (4 consolidation) and then 5. AUDUSD shows mixed signs and that's why I mentioned both a wave B and wave 1 scenario. But let's not get too much into wave counting here on tradingview because I will explain that on my website by means of webinars and this might only be confusing. Key to understand is structure and what to look for in terms of confirmations of an impulse. So far it doesn't show that yet. I'll update later today. Good trading to you!
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TimStuyts johnm600
5 months ago
By the way I will still count it as a Flat ABC (3-3-5) but thanks to your comment I see I broke a rule during my last update. It doesn't change anything trading wise but I adjusted the wave count. A wave B has to retrace at least 90% of a wave A in a Flat correction. Thanks for your input.
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johnm600
4 months ago
Any chance of an update on the DXY and aud/usd ?
Cheers
John
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TimStuyts johnm600
4 months ago
Hello John, I'm in the middle of moving to another country so will be back updating and posting as of next week. If I have the chance to take a good look at the market I will update. Good trading to you!
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imas007 PRO TimStuyts
4 months ago
Waiting for possible pullback to take long trade, but it looks like it still firing upside.
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imas007 PRO imas007
4 months ago
any advise on material to read or link recommend, i wiil appreciate
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imas007 PRO imas007
4 months ago
Refering to AUDNZD and not AUDUSD
+1 Reply
TimStuyts imas007
4 months ago
www.timstuyts.com (launch will be soon) and Elliott Wave Principle of Robert Prechter
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imas007 PRO TimStuyts
4 months ago
what time frame prefer to use for elliott wave?
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TimStuyts imas007
4 months ago
You can use all time frames really, that's the beauty of structure. All time frames will show you a structure of a certain degree. However I personally don't go lower than 1hr time frame with the exception of sometimes looking for a 15min wave count.
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imas007 PRO TimStuyts
4 months ago
Good, thanks.
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johnm600 TimStuyts
4 months ago
Well, I hope it all works out well for you, but I see you know the ropes about all this moving including time in NZ.
Cheers
John
Reply
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