EURGBP, Fundamentals, Brexit and bigger picture structure

FX:EURGBP   Euro / British Pound
172 0 5
For those who want to take part in the likely volatility due to the Brexit referendum I would suggest to trade EURGBP             . Because in case of a no-vote the fundamentals for UK are still better than EU (not than US for example which makes the potential relief rally less rational against the Dollar) and maybe even more importantly the higher time frame structure still suggests a move below 0.69.

Fundamentally we saw the previous bullish move from 0.69 start once the Brexit scenario came on the table. I expect this move to be erased easily once the vote is 'NO'. In case of a yes we most likely see a bullish break out of the daily consolidation for a new high above 0.98. For my long term count of months ago see link below:

Short term I expect EURGBP             to weaken towards its fair value and from there the UK vote outcome will start the next impulse. That's my expectation for now but we still have a few day's to go and I will adjust when necessary. However if you want to trade this pair we should be waiting for a consolidation after the current bearish impulse of lesser degree and sell the continuation with stop above the consolidation high.

Trade with care and otherwise use this analysis as an example.


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